Baseball Statistics: Win Shares

Win Shares is a sabermetric measurement, created by Bill James, baseball writer, historian, and statistician, that considers statistics for players, relative to their contribution to their team, and assigns a number to each player for his contributions for the year. All pitching, hitting and defensive contributions by the player are taken into account. Win Shares are also adjusted for park, league, and the era in which a player played.

Top Three Win Shares by Position and League (2008)

Catcher

American League

1. MIN - Joe Mauer - 31

2. OAK - Kurt Suzuki - 20

3. TBR - Dioner Navarro -17

National League

1. CHC - Geovany Soto - 24

2. PIT - Ryan Doumit - 22

3. LAD - Russell Martin - 22

First Basemen

American League

1. MIN - Justin Morneau - 29

2. BOS - Kevin Youkilis - 29

3. TBR - Carlos Pena - 22

National League

1. HOU - Lance Berkman - 38

2. STL - Albert Pujols - 35

3. SDP - Adrian Gonzalez - 26

Second Basemen

American League

1. BOS - Dustin Pedroia - 26

2. TEX - Ian Kinsler - 26

3. BAL - Brian Roberts - 21

National League

1. PHI - Chase Utley - 30

2. FLA - Dan Uggla - 25

3. CHC - Mark DeRosa - 23

Third Basemen

American League

1. NYY - Alex Rodriguez - 25

2. TBR - Evan Longoria - 20

3. BAL - Melvin Mora - 18

National League

1. NYM - David Wright - 29

2. CHC - Aramis Ramirez - 25

3. ATL - Chipper Jones - 24

Shortstop

American League

1. TEX - Michael Young - 20

2. CLE - Jhonny Peralta - 19

3. NYY - Derek Jeter - 18

National League

1. FLA - Hanley Ramirez - 32

2. NYM - Jose Reyes - 29

3. PHI - Jimmy Rollins - 24

Outfield (Top 5)

American League

1. CLE - Grady Sizemore - 28

2. TEX - Josh Hamilton - 27

3. NYY - Johnny Damon - 25

4. BAL - Nick Markakis - 25

5. NYY - Bobby Abreu, TBR - B.J. Upton, CHW - Carlos Quentin, and LAA -Vladimir Guerrero tied - 24

National League

1. NYM - Carlos Beltran - 33

2. PIT - Nate McLouth - 27

3. STL - Ryan Ludwick - 26

4. LAD - Andre Ethier - 25

5. MIL - Ryan Braun - 25

Starting Pitcher (Top 5)

American League

1. CLE - Cliff Lee - 25

2. TOR - Roy Halladay - 23

3. LAA - Ervin Santana - 19

4. BOS - Jon Lester - 19

5. LAA - Joe Saunders -19

National League

1. SFG - Tim Lincecum - 27

2. ARI - Brandon Webb - 22

3. NYM - Johan Santana - 21

4. ARI - Dan Haren - 20

5. PHI - Cole Hamels, CHC - Ryan Dempster, and HOU - Roy Oswalt tied - 18

If we were using Win Shares to decide the MVP and Cy Young awards, they would look something like this:

AL MVP: Joe Mauer

NL MVP: Lance Berkman

AL CY YOUNG: Cliff Lee

NL CY YOUNG: SFG - Tim Lincecum

The AL MVP in this case went to Joe Mauer, but if you look at the numbers, in Win Shares Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia were all right behind the winner, quite like the real AL MVP race, which had Dustin Pedroia winning a tight contest over Morneau, Youkilis, and Mauer.

The NL MVP in this case went to Lance Berkman, over Albert Pujols. In actuality Pujols won, with Ryan Howard, who had 25 win shares, finishing second, despite not being the most valuable player on his own team (Chase Utley had 30 win shares). Berkman finished 5th in MVP voting.

The CY Young winners however were spot on.

Not bad considering Win Shares, like any statistic, still has its flaws. In Win Shares, players cannot be given negative win shares. Another criticism is that players that play on teams that win more than their expected number of games, ala Pythagorean expectation, receive more wins than players that play on teams that under perform their expectation. This could be the likely reason why Lance Berkman received more Win Shares than Albert Pujols (the astros outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by 9 wins.)

However despite its flaws, Win Shares is still a valuable tool in assessing a player's value.

All win shares statistics taken from http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=winshares