Bay Area Football Return to Respectability?

For a rare time in recent years, the Bay Area should have two teams that resemble one that plays professional football and not the joke they've trotted out in recent years.

Just don't expect either to remind you of any of the eight Super Bowl champions they've won - five for the 49ers and three for the Raiders. Respectability, however, would be one place to start.

The year of 2002 is only five years ago but seems more like 25 years ago. The 49ers won the NFC West, had a stirring 39-38 wild card win over the New York Giants before losing 31-6 to Tampa Bay (the eventual Super Bowl champ) one week later.

The 49ers fired head coach Steve Mariucci days later and went 9-23 under his replacement, Dennis Erickson. Nice move, front office. If you fire a head coach and the next guy is not better, you don't make the move.

Erickson then got jettisoned after the 2004 season when the 49ers reached rock bottom in going 2-14. Mike Nolan enters his third season has compiled a combined record of 11-21 but ended last season with a win in Denver to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs and finish 7-9.

The Raiders meanwhile won their third straight division title in 2002 and reached their first Super Bowl since 1983 before getting their doors blown off the Buccaneers 48-21, led by their former head coach Jon Gruden.

The Raiders have not been the same since that day. They've got through four head coaches - Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell and now Lane Kiffin. The team went 2-14 in 2006 in Shell's second stint as head coach (1989-1994 was his first). Much has been discussed of how recent Super Bowl runner-ups don't recover the following year. Suffice it to say, the Raiders have not come close to recovering, going 15-49 since that year and haven't sniffed playoff contention.

For 49ers are the more likely of the two to make serious noise in 2007 but one can't help that the Raiders will be better because it's hard to imagine them being worse. Well, they could go 1-15 or 0-16 but I'd bet half of my next paycheck that won't happen.

Since gutting themselves of salary cap problems in 2003-2005, the 49ers have done a fine job of rebuilding the team through the draft and also made some useful free agent pickups. The 2007 season will be the most telling under Nolan because it's his third season. By now, he's been able to build the team with the players he wants instead of the previous era.

Offensively, quarterback Alex Smith (the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft), might not remind anyone of Joe Montana or Steve Young but there's every reason to think he can be as good as or better than say Jeff Garcia. The 49ers have gradually surrounded him with viable talent, most notably running back Frank Gore and tight end Vernon Davis. The left side of the offensive line with tackle Jonas Jennings and guard Larry Allen is formidable but the receiving core of Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie won't make anyone forget Jerry Rice or Terrell Owens.

On the defensive side, the 49ers have retooled very well the past few seasons in the draft, most notably with linebacker Manny Lawson. The team is also counting on free agents such as cornerback Nate Clements and linebacker Tully Banta Cain.

The NFC West might lack a true standout team but San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis and Arizona appear to be about equal across the board. If quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and running back Shaun Alexander are healthy, it's hard not to make Seattle the favorite to win the division. Those two players combined to miss 10 games and the Seahawks still managed to win the division but their days of dominating the division appear to be a thing of the past.

St. Louis has a potent offense but since the same can't be said for their defense it's hard to see the rams doing much better than a break-even record. Arizona underachieved last season under former head coach Dennis Green with a 5-11 record. Former Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt has replaced Green. Whisenhunt knows how to use offensive talent but the Cardinals have enough concerns on defense to where they'll be hard-pressed to break even.

As for the Raiders, they had a dynamite defense (ranking No. 1 against the pass) but when your offense scores only 12 touchdowns the entire season, that won't cut it even your defense is of the caliber of say the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens.

No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell won't be a factor any time soon since he is still unsigned as of this writing but even if Russell earned the starting job, keep in mind most rookie quarterbacks struggle their first year anyhow.

More imaginative game-planning (i.e. replacing man blocking with zone blocking) should help cut down the sack total from last year's 72 by about a quarter. It should also help sustain more drives. The return of wide receiver Jerry Porter after a lost season can only help the offense. It won't take much to improve on last year's performance.

The defense returns virtually intact, most notably Pro Bowl cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha and defensive end Derrick Burgess and defensive tackle Warren Sapp. The team figures to benefit by having an even better understand of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's system coupled with the fact that the offense, while it won't remind anyone of the Rich Gannon era Raiders, can't help but be better.

The problem is that the AFC West has not gotten any weaker. San Diego will be hard-pressed to duplicate last year's 14-2 record because 14 win seasons don't just fall out of them sky. Just one question: Why do you fire a head coach who can't win in the postseason (Marty Schottenheimer) with one that can't even win in the regular season (Norv Turner)? The Chargers, however, have enough talent and if Turner can't win at least 10 games with this team there's something wrong.

Jay Cutler will enter his first full season as a starter in Denver but head coach Mike Shannahan always finds a way to field a competitive team. Kansas City appears to be on the decline but appears to have enough talent to break even.

So what will come of Bay Area football in 2007? Don't expect any Vince Lombardi Trophies for one thing but it will be much more watchable and not junior college-like. The 49ers should win about 8-10 games, which should give them a chance to eke out a postseason berth and perhaps a division crown.

The first four games for the Raiders will be very telling in that they host Detroit and Cleveland, two teams who were almost as bad as Oakland in 2006 with records of 3-13 and 4-12 respectively. If the Raiders can do no worse than 2-2 in their first four games, they have a chance to win about 6-8. Heck, one could argue that they have enough talent to do that last season but once the drama started (i.e. the Shell-Porter saga); the season went to hell in a handbag. Look for a much better season in 2007.

And for reasons to actually "watch" games in December.