BCS Race Up for Grabs Following USC Loss to Oregon State

Thanks to Oregon State's stunning victory over previously third-ranked Southern California on October 28, the chase for college football's national championship race has been thrown into a state of upheaval, and what a good thing that is. It will make for an exciting final month
of the season.

Prior to USC's loss, the BCS race appeared cut and dried. The championship game was shaping up as a battle between the Ohio State-Michigan winner and USC (assuming the Trojans kept winning). But all that changed with the Trojans' 33-31 loss to Oregon State. USC dropped from third to eighth - now seventh - in the BCS standings and likely fell out of the national championship picture.

The Trojans had been playing with fire - winning three games by a touchdown or loss - and they finally got burned. The defeat ended two
impressive streaks for USC - a 38-game regular-season winning streak and 27-game Pac-10 Conference winning streak.

So how does USC's loss affect the BCS standings? Nothing has changed as far as the importance of the Ohio State-Michigan contest Novemver 18 in Columbus. Since the teams are ranked one-two, the winner remains in line to advance to the national championship game January 8. The significance of the USC defeat is that it opens the door for a number of teams to sneak into the second spot, including a few with one loss.

Here's the big question to consider. Could a one-loss team from the Southeastern Conference (Florida or Auburn) jump over an
undefeated Louisville team, which stayed in the title chase with a huge 44-34 win over previously third-ranked West Virginia last Thursday in a Big East showdown last week?

Wouldn't it be ironic if a Big East team (Louisville) played for the national championship, considering the league was supposed to be
crippled following the defections of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College to the Atlantic Coast Conference? Louisville would have to be
one of the unlikeliest teams to ever play for the national title and its presence in the BCS game would upset a lot of traditionalists. In a state where basketball and horse racing reign supreme, Louisville's football tradition is virtually non-existent. Of course, coach Bobby Petrino is
trying to change all of that.

If Louisville does make it to the title game, you can imagine the outrage in the SEC, especially considering Auburn was shut out of the BCS game a few years ago despite going 13-0. No way Louisville would be undefeated in the SEC, the argument would go. The Cardinals would lose two, maybe three games and probably not even be ranked in the top 20. Louisville's argument would be, "Well, what else can you do but win every game?"

Here's another possible scenario. Does USC's loss open the possibility of Ohio State and Michigan meeting in a rematch in early January to decide the championship? How bizarre would that be?

Here's a look at the chances of each of the contenders:

1. Ohio State (10-0) - The Buckeyes are clearly the best team in the country and appear to be getting even stronger, although they did
struggle somewhat against Illinois, holding on for a 17-10 win. All that stands between Ohio State and the showdown against Michigan is a November 11 game at Northwestern. Even if the Buckeyes lose to the Wolverines, it's conceivable they won't drop any lower than second in the BCS standings, especially if it's a close loss. That's because Ohio State has a huge advantage in the BCS standings over Louisville, which jumped from fifth to third. If Ohio State and Michigan do meet in a rematch, then the BCS system is flawed even more than we thought
as It would severely penalize the team that won the first game.

2. Michigan (10-0) - The Wolverines also have what appears to be an easy game before heading to Columbus - a visit to Indiana.
Could a close loss to Ohio State, say, something like 21-20, keep Michigan second in the BCS standings, thereby setting up that rematch?
Could Michigan, with one loss, stay ahead of Louisville? It's possible, but probably not likely.

3. Louisville (8-0) - Louisville and West Virginia were the biggest benefactors from the USC loss, then the Cardinals took advantage of the
opportunity by knocking the Mountaineers out of title contention. The issue for Louisville, however, is its schedule, which was ranked only
70th before the West Virginia game. After beating the Mountaineers, the Cardinals jumped over Florida into that all important third spot in the BCS standings. They do have two tough games left - at Rutgers and Pittsburgh - so their schedule strength should improve a bit more. But will it be enough to hold off that one-loss SEC team?

4. Florida (8-1) - Simply put, the Gators need Louisville to lose a game. Failing that, the Gators hope that an extra win in the SEC championship game, combined with a rugged SEC regular-season schedule, will be enough to catapault them past the Cardinals. Few will argue that the SEC, with five teams in the top 25, isn't the toughest conference in the country. Florida, which has clinched a berth in the
SEC title game, closes with games against South Carolina, Western Carolina (gimme win) and at Florida State

6. Texas (9-1) - The defending national champions may be the best one-loss team in the county. Their only defeat came to top-ranked Ohio State early in the season. But the Longhorns are ranked behind Florida in the BCS and probably need Louisville and the Gators to lose.

5. Auburn (9-1) - The Tigers are in a unique position in that they could play in the national championship game without qualifying for the
SEC title game. Since the Tigers lost to Arkansas, they need a lot of help to get to Atlanta. Auburn needs Arkansas to lose twice. It could
happen as the Razorbacks have a pair of tough tests left (home against Tennessee) and at LSU. IIf Auburn doesn't win the SEC West, it needs Louisville and (probably) Texas, then the Tigers will root for Arkansas to upset Florida in the SEC championship game. Auburn finishes with Georgia at home and at Alabama.

7. USC (7-1) - The Trojans were written off after the loss to Oregon State, but their next three games are against ranked teams - California, Oregon and Notre Dame. If USC beats all three and finishes 11-1, it still might be able to make a claim to play in the championship
game.

Since there haven't been many upsets this season, there are several other one-loss teams - Notre Dame (8-1), California (8-1), Arkansas
(8-1), Wisconsin (8-1) and Wake Forest (8-1) - but they seem to be too far behind in the BCS standings to have any realistic title hopes.

My pick for the national championship: Ohio State vs.Louisville. Do I think Louisville is the second-best team in the country? Definitely not,
but I think wins over Rutgers and Pittsburgh will be enough for the Cardinals to hold on to the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings. Meanwhile, in
the SEC there will be screams to scrap the BCS system. So what else is new?