Beau Biden Declines to Run for US Senate

Beau Biden, the son of Vice President Joe Biden, has decided after all not to run for his father's senate seat in Delaware. This means that Republican Congressman Mike Castle is now the favorite to take the seat in the fall elections.

Beau Biden's decision to remain Attorney General of Delaware is the latest bad news for Democrats reeling from retirements of office holders and a defeat in a special US Senate election in Massachusetts. The latest retirement is that of Congressman Marion Berry of Arkansas, placing his House seat in play in a majority Republican district.

Beau Biden's decision is said to be personal rather than political. Attorney General Biden is also pursuing an important child abuse case that would be interrupted by a run for the senate.

Whatever Beau Biden's actual reason for not running for his father's old senate seat, it was taken against the backdrop of a year when running for office with a "D" next to ones name is political poison. Many Democrats are either retiring from public office or, like Beau Biden, refusing to run for higher office to avoid the humiliation of being beaten.

The political tsunami that is predicted to occur this fall represents a remarkable reversal of political fortune for the two major parties in the United States. In 2006 and 2008 having an "R" next to one's name was like the Mark of Cain. Now the pendulum has swung the other way and in the space of about a year.

Some would argue that the normal political cycle has occurred. Sometimes the Democrats are up and the Republicans are down, sometimes the reverse. But something else seems to be occurring as well.

There is a huge reaction in the country, illustrated by the tea party movement, the town hall incidents, and elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, against overreaching and unresponsive government no matter what political party it is aligned with. Polling suggests that both Democrats and Republicans are held in disdain.

Unfortunately for the Democrats they are the party in power, with the presidency and huge majorities in the House and Senate. The weight of ire falls on them and the Republicans benefit by default. To paraphrase Trey Parker and Matt Stone of South Park fame, the public attitude seems to be, "We hate Republicans, but we really effing hate Democrats."

That represents opportunity and peril for Republicans. When Democrats are swept out of power and Republicans are swept in, it will be on a probationary basis. The Republicans will have another chance that blew the last time, when they held both the White House and the Congress between 2002 and 2006. If the Republicans blow it again, then the same polling data suggests that something called The Tea Party trumps both Republicans and Democrats in popularity. Successful third parties are rare, though they do happen. When they do, they tend to either have their ideas absorbed by one of the main parties or another, or they supplant one of the old parties and become one of the two parties. The Whigs took over from the Federalists and the Republicans took over from the Whigs. It may happen again.

Source: Biden's Son Will Not Run for Delaware's Open Senate Seat, Carl Hulse, New York Times, January 25th, 2010