Behind in the Polls, McCain Campaign Relies on Hope and Superstition

The McCain strategy has become the come-from-behind, underdog, we'll-say-anything-to-get-elected, grovel-the-vote, kitchen-sink-slinging, never-say-die litany of the desperate. And although most national polls place Senator Barack Obama comfortably in the lead, Senator McCain's and the GOP's internal tracking polls put the Arizona senator well within the margin of error. And they could be right.

"The Patriots lost the Super Bowl," reminds Frank Donatelli, the Republican National Committee's deputy director.

Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, while stumping for Senator McCain in New Hampshire, rekindled the memory of the 2004 Boston Red Sox overcoming a three game deficit to defeat the New York Yankees to go on to the World Series.

Sports aside, the political game is not over until the last vote is counted, or at least until the last lawsuit has been dismissed or decided. So the McCain- Palin camp's attitude is understandable.

Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said that John McCain would mount the greatest comeback in election history.

But it is going to be a tough fight to get it done. But it can be done.

At present, according to most polls, Senator Obama has enough support to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. However, several of the states that are leaning toward Senator Obama poll-wise are still within the margin of error, which means any one or a combination of those states could still end up voting for Senator McCain. If enough of them do, McCain- Palin could win the election.

But it is unlikely.

Real Clear Politics (RCP) has Senator Obama ahead by an average of 7.8%. The last time Senator Obama led by less than 5 points was the last day of September (4.8%).

The GWU/ Battleground Poll, which some consider to be the most accurate of all the polls, has Senator Obama in the lead by 6 points in national election polling. Rasmussen places Senator Obama ahead by 6 points as well. The Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Poll shows Senator Obama with a 7 point lead. Even Fox News, that bastion of fair and balanced conservatism, found Obama 7 points ahead.

The last Pew Research Poll, conducted between October 29-November 1, placed Senator Obama 6 points ahead of Senator McCain, 52% - 46%. Michael Dimmock, associate director of the Pew Research Center, notes: "Nothing's over until it's over. While polls in a lot of these key swing states show Obama with slim to modest leads, there is always the possibility of late movement in public opinion."

Despite the polls, some rely on pure hope. Others, on pure superstition. Many cited the Redskins football game myth that predicts the national election by whether or not the Washington Redskins win their latest home game before the election. Since 1940, if the Redskins won the game before election, the party whose candidate won the previous election would win. If they lost, the party whose candidate had lost would win the election. Since 1940, the superstition has prevailed as an election indicator because it has been correct.

If so, Monday night's football contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Washington Redskins ended badly for both the Redskins and Senator McCain. The Redskins lost, 23 - 6.

Of course, Governor Palin wants to leave it "in god's hands," so it is a safe bet that there is a lot of praying going on at McCain staff headquarters.

And there is little doubt for what they are praying. They are praying, from the most trusted aide to the lowest staffer, for the Bradley Effect.

Sources:

RealClearPolitics.com

Anima9.wordpress.com

"Monday Night Football," ESPN Television