Best NFL Picks Free Week 5-NFL Game Picks with Football Spreads

Ouch! Ouch! Ouch! Getting the best NFL picks free isn't supposed to mean we go 6-7 in week 4. Not to mention 6-7 with the football spreads. While these are not the kind of totals anyone likes to see, it is nice to know all of our subscribers went 3-1 against the spread at the Best NFL Picks Free website. So the NFL game picks we put in our newsletter is now 13-3 on the year and 17-4 when you include Monday Night Football. Our most recent loss last week was the no defense Broncos. Just goes to show you that trends mean something (Shanahan is now 3-11 in Kansas City).

Always look at the positive right? Anyways, this week's best NFL picks free are going to be crisp, short, and to the point. It's time to bust out a huge week and put these football spreads and NFL game picks into gear. So sit back, eat some popcorn, drink a soda, and enjoy the show. Or text. Whatever. If you missed any previous weeks you can go back and view them below.

Week #1
Week #2
Week #3
Week #4

Indianapolis at Houston (Indy -3)(47.5)

This has been an interesting matchup for the last few years. The Colts are 5-1 over their last six at Reliant with an average win margin of 9.5 points. Replacement Matt Giordano had four solo tackles against the Jags and has been serviceable to this point with Bob Sanders out. The question is whether or not they'll be able to stop Houston RB Steve Slayton. However their main goal will be to contain Matt Schaub and the aerial attack from getting theirs. Indy boasts a 140 ypg pass defense, which could create problems.

One thing I've been saying for years is offensive linemen should get paid more. The Colts Jeff Saturday is a prime example. Without him they had issues with their running game as well as giving Peyton Manning plenty of time to throw. The buy week definitely helped with Saturday back in the lineup. Add a 1-2, the Titans 4-0, and another divisional opponent. I don't believe that they'll let this one slip away. The score should be in the twenties and we'll take the Colts to cover.

Indianapolis 28 Houston 21

Tennessee at Baltimore (Tenn -2.5)(35)

Unfortunately at the time this was written there wasn't a line on the game. Don't worry, it always happens when teams play on Monday Night. I imagine the Titans will be favored by 2-4 points. For those of you who like over/unders this game has gone under 6 out of the last 7 times Tennessee has traveled to Baltimore. The final score might be 3-2. The Ravens are 6-2 against Tennessee at home in the last 8. Our question is how do they play on a short week?

Unfortunately they're 4-4 in the last 8 after playing a Monday Night game. So who do we like. Well based on the trends, Tennessee relying mainly on the run, and the Ravens defense ranked #2 against the run at 69.7 ypg. Tennessee is ranked #8. Ugly, ugly game, but out NFL game picks has to add Baltimore based on the information and a few other things we read.

Baltimore 13 Tennessee 10

San Diego at Miami (S.D. -6)(45.5)

What a week it was for the Chargers again waiting until the 4th quarter to show up. They can definitely thank the Raiders youth and inexperience for coming back and scoring 25 points in the 4th quarter. Many handicappers will be feeling they're going to slide through Miami, but after a recent bye week for the Dolphins it will be an interesting matchup. Oddly enough San Diego is 6-0-1 on the road in their last 7 against the spread. However, we're not sure if back-to-back road games is factored in so we'll go take a peek.

Probably the biggest trend is that San Diego is 0-5 against Miami in their last 5 games at Dolphin Stadium. The only downfall is they haven't played each other since 2005. Since both teams have decent run defenses it will come down to the Pennington vs. Rivers matchup. You know what, we can't really call this a back to back road game setup with Oakland being right across the way. Hell, they probably walked. Seriously though? We like the Chargers.

San Diego 31 Miami 17

Kansas City at Carolina (Car -10)(38.5)

You know earlier I smacked up the Denver defense because they're just bad. However, I'll have to retract the statements considering the Broncos offense had 4 turnovers. Not to mention one was returned to the Denver 47, two to the Denver 43, and one to the Denver 2. It wasn't so much that Kansas City played that good, it's just that Denver played that bad. Anyways, back to the Chiefs and their great record on the road. Even though they lost so many games in a row they were still able to secure a 7-2 record ATS in their last 9.

Since the Chiefs realized it was time to give RB Larry Johnson his most carries yet, he exploded for almost 200 yards and 2 scores. Based on the information we tracked both teams should be able to go about their normal game plans. Earlier in the year we talked about Damon Huard being a better game manager and more effective QB and once again he has proved us right. While we think Carolina will be able to get the win here, 10 points is a lot and we'll take the Chiefs to cover the spread.

Carolina 24 Kansas City 20

Washington at Philadelphia (Phi -5.5)(43)

Well, wasn't the weekend quite the opposite for these two teams traveling on the road. Philly's decision to run 4 straight times up the middle against one of the best run defenses in the league was ridiculous. Washington on the other hand benefited from Dallas deciding to stay away from the run and came out with a huge win. So what does that mean now that the two teams are up against one another in week 5? Well, it all starts with the Redskins back to back road game records. Unfortunately they're 4-4 in their last 8 so it really doesn't help much.

The biggest downfall for the Redskins here is because they are 3-10 against Philadelphia. However they are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 against the Eagles. The biggest thing they'll have to deal with is Brian Westbrook being back in the lineup. He actually could have gone Sunday night, but the team decided against it. This lets you know he'll be ready this week. For that we will take the Eagles to win this game because the offense runs a lot smoother with him in the lineup. As a side note Philly is 4-7-1 against the spread at home in their last 12 which is why we'll take the Redskins to cover the 5 1/2. Although Portis will get shutdown.

Philadelphia 21 Washington 18

Atlanta at Green Bay (OFF)(N/A)

Well, we're still not going to know what's going on with this game until later in the week. So we'll just throw out Atlanta as our pick.

Atlanta 19 Green Bay 10

Chicago at Detroit (Chi -3.5)(44.5)

After Millen's firing, this week will be interesting to see how the Lions come out of the bye. Kitna's sprained knee looks to be fine, but if he continues to throw interceptions and cost them games then the Detroit organization will probably look at backups Dan Orlovsky and old Michigan State QB Drew Stanton. As far as the game is concerned Chicago should have an easy time creating problems for the Lions offense. They rank 31st in rushing offense and 23rd in the passing department. So the Bears just need to contain the overrated aerial attack. This could wind up being a blow out.

In fact, the only issue we have not taking Chicago is 2-4 against the Lions at Ford Field. Fortunately though 4 of those games was win Chicago had serious injuries on defense and weren't quite themselves. So we'll bypass all of it and go with the Bears minus the points. Detroit's defense is just as bad as the Broncos stats wise and they give up 430 yards a game. Matt Forte should be all smiles considering 207 of those are on the ground.

Chicago 28 Detroit 13

Seattle at NY Giants (NY -7)(43.5)

A couple of teams that spent last week watching the games now are primed and ready for this fantastic matchup. We've got all kinds of news about these two teams and especially the Seattle Seahawks. Both WR Bobby Engram and Deion Branch returned to practice this week and will surely be ready for this matchup. It couldn't come at a better time when RB Julius Jones is running with authority and how bad the Giants usually play after a bye week.

Even though everyone is talking about how much the Giants don't need Burress, the truth of the matter is they do. Since Seattle won't have to roll coverage over to Burress to get that extra help, the defensive scheme will be set up on a different level. The Hawks run defense ranks #9 in the league and if they can contain the Giants bread n' butter of Jacobs and Ward this could be an upset. The Giants own Seattle when playing at home, but the Hawks usually cover the spread. Unfortunately New York is just 1-5 after the bye in their last six. We're thinking upset here.

Seattle 20 NY Giants 17

Tampa Bay at Denver (Den -3)(48)

I love to see a matchup like this on the board when a defense that works around the Cover 2 takes on the #2 passing attack in NFL. Tampa already took on the New Orleans Saints which ranks #1 and came out with a big loss to open the year. While many may pick Denver, it's a lot more difficult. The Bucs can create turnovers, Brian Griese is very familiar with the mountain air, and the Chiefs showed everyone how to beat the Broncos.

Denver has one their last 5 games at home, but is just 4-11-1 in their last 16 at home. The only reason I like the Broncos in this game is because Brian Griese has thrown 6 interceptions in the last 2 games. The Bucs had no interceptions against the Saints #1 passing offense and lost the game. If he does that against the Broncos they could blow this game wide open. Having Champ Bailey and Dre Bly in the secondary, odds are that it will happen.

Denver 32 Tampa Bay 24

New England at San Francisco (N.E. -3)(41.5)

Boy doesn't this seem like a trap game. New England enjoyed a bye in week #4 after being destroyed by the Dolphins. It gave them time to get refocused on the season and not let that lone loss to take over the season. The 49ers come off a road loss to the Saints after being overly touted as a good matchup where many expected them to make the upset. So how will this game fall into place? The Pats will have to get Moss more involved.

Seriously, they haven't scored 20 points yet this year, so if the offense is still sputtering then once again they'll be relying on the defense to save the day. The 49ers are pretty good against the pass at home only giving up 150 ypg, so New England will be looking to implement Lawrence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk. Heck, maybe even LaMont Jordan for a carry or two. San Fran is 3-6 in its last 9 at home. Honestly, the biggest problem here is that New England gives up 140.7 yards a game on the ground. Frank Gore is going to change this game and give the upset to the 49ers.

San Francisco 24 New England 17

Buffalo at Arizona (PK)(44.5)

Okay, so last week's St. Louis pick was a little misplaced, but it sure looked good for the first half. Trent Edwards didn't throw for 200 yards, had an INT, and once again only threw up 1 TD against the worst defense in the NFL. This brings us back to the running game and boy is this a great matchup. Arizona only gives up 72 ypg at home on the ground while Buffalo runs a humbling 93 ypg on the road. The aerial isn't much better so you can imagine this will be a lower scoring affair then what we saw last week.

The biggest question here is Buffalo's run defense that gives up over 130 ypg on the road. Edgerrin James and rookie Tim Hightower will be the primary reason the Cardinals get the upset. Unless of course the Bills defense can create a bunch of turnovers. Boldin will be a loss, but because we think the running game will be utilized more this week so it won't mean as much. Plus Buffalo is 1-5 on the road against the NFC with their only win being a 1 point last second field goal thanks to Joe Gibbs pulling a Chris Webber on everyone.

Arizona 20 Buffalo 17

Cincinnati at Dallas (Dal -1,000,000)(INF)

Honestly, I don't want to be wasting anymore time then I need to covering this game. If the Bengals win it will be the upset of the century in my mind. If you remember I told you that we won't be picking Cincinnati the rest of the year. So far that still holds true and even if Palmer comes back the team is in shambles. The line was not released when this was wrote so 14-17 points is probably the number. We don't like taking the big lines so we'll pick the Bengals to push based on our football spread prediction.

Dallas 34 Cincinnati 17

That's it for this week. If you want our Sunday and Monday night picks then go over to the Best NFL Picks Free website and signup for our newsletter. While we're definitely doing well in our newsletter picks, the overall took a hit this week. It's time to get some games back even though we didn't lose much ground on the competitors considering the average winners was 6 which is what we brought down last week. Good Luck.

Last week: 6-7
Season total: 36-24
ATS last week: 6-7
ATS total: 31-29
PTS last week: 52
Season total: 317

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