Bird Flu: The Next Pandemic?

Reports of bird flu deaths amongst humans in recent years have sparked fears that another flu pandemic may well be another repeat of the Spanish flu epidemic. The latest cases of birth flu deaths caused by the H5N1 strain has killed at least 4 people in Turkey and 12 people in Indonesia. All told, at least 83 out of 152 people worldwide have succumbed to the deadly virus since it was first reported in 2003.

BIRD FLU: A GLOBAL HEALTH THREAT

Bird flu, or avian influenza, is a flu virus that primarily afflicts wild birds and domestic fowls. On rare occasions, the virus mutates and attains the ability to "jump" from one species to another, and in these instances, the genetic mutation can lead to devastating effects.

To date, all flu strains that have been documented to make this evolutionary jump have been identified as H5 and H7 subtypes. The current strain, H5N1 type, has been reported in many countries: the Republic of Korea, Viet Nam, Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Indonesia, China, and Malaysia have reported these cases to the World Health Organization.

At this point, casualty numbers caused by the current H5N1 strain is considered minute compared to the appalling numbers who succumbed to the Spanish flu, it may be that the current strain has so far been limited to bird-to-human transmissions, since there is no evidence to ascertain a human-to-human transmission.

Even so, scientists have discovered that the virus can incubate itself in wild, migratory birds. Transmission mode includes direct contact with faeces and body fluids of infected birds. Interaction between wild and domesticated birds thus poses a serious health risk to domesticated bird owners who are often in direct contact with poultry.

Besides its mode of transmission, the fatality rates amongst those afflicted with the disease is high, with approximately half of its victims succumbing to the virus. Symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, conjunctivitis. In severe cases, severe breathing problems can lead to the death of the afflicted patient.

BIRD FLU: AN ECONOMIC THREAT

Another worrying aspect of a bird flu aspect would be the economic health of any city that suffers the misfortune of a bird flu pandemic. Consider the SARS epidemic: the tourism in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan was badly affected; tourists tend to avoid pandemic-stricken locations, and in countries that are heavily dependent on the tourism industry, such a pandemic, no matter how small in scale, will definitely not be mere a flash in the pan.

CONTROLLING THE PANDEMIC

Culling of infected poultry is one of the preferred methods of eliminating the spread of H5N1 strain of bird flu, but the recent discoveries of the presence of the virus in migratory wild birds may suggest that culling affected poultry animals may not be the most efficient long-term strategy in containing the virus.

Amidst such uncertainties, prevention and cure becomes paramount in preventing the onset of a potential flu pandemic.

VACCINES & AVAILABLE DRUGS

Currently, the armory of influenza-related drugs may be insufficient to contain a major viral outbreak. The foremost front-line drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza, do not work for every patient, and there is always the chance that a lapse in treatment, either due to the patient's negligence or other forms of abuse, may result in the virus developing a resistance to these anti-viral drugs.

Developing a viable vaccine has thus become paramount to the medical community, since at this point prevention will be far better than a cure.

To this end, recent developments have produced a breath-through: Four US medical centers have requested for volunteers to run a trial on a recently-developed bird flu vaccine, which has been manufactured in Britain by the Chirin Corporation. In conjunction with a bird flu vaccine developed by the French counterparts last year, it is hoped that the combination of these two similar vaccines will result in a major breakthrough in the quest for a suitable bird flu vaccine.

It is imperative that this current bird flu outbreak is halted in its tracks, before it becomes a potential large-scale pandemic. Given the sheer numbers of the human population today, it is quite possible that the sheer numbers of inflicted victims will far exceed the numbers afflicted by the deadly Spanish flu of World War I.