Blue Dogs in Congress May Be Spoilers for Health Care Reform

As health care legislation is being crafted in Congress, and predicted by some such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to easily pass, political pundits see a split among Democrats which could potentially derail passage of a health care bill. At first it seemed a no-brainer that health care legislation would pass. Escalating health care costs and personal bankruptcy due to health care bills have been targeted by both politicians and political commentators as issues which need to be resolved. While Republicans and Democrats have a range of ideological differences on how health care reform should be undertaken, the Democrats currently control all three branches of the Federal government. Certainly the "stars are aligned" for the passage of health care reform, and if the Democrats were able to vote as a block then health care legislation would be easily passed.

So why all the talk about a "bipartisan bill"? Certainly Democrats have been focused on providing health care for the indigent for decades and passage of such a bill would be heralded as a success, if at least not initially. Even more so, passing a health care legislation in the face of Republican opposition could only boost the chances of Democrats in mid-term elections. Democratic opponents could talk about how their Republican adversaries were opposed to health care reform for decades. Indeed, conservatives have often dragged their feet on prior safety net legislation including Social Security and Medicare.

However, when Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic congressional leaders talk about bipartisan support for a health care bill, I believe that it is really code for getting their conservative Democratic colleagues, the Blue Dogs, on the bandwagon to support the current legislation. If some Republicans vote for health care reform, no matter what the final bill, it will give the legislation the appearance of being more centrist. However, if no Republicans vote for health care reform and it is vilified in the press, then conservative Blue Dog democrats might be afraid that supporting such legislation would put them at risk during elections.

So who are these Blue Dogs? There are currently 52 Democrats who are considered part of the Blue Dog Coalition. They were formed after the devastating losses that Congressional Democrats suffered in 1994, and believe in fiscal responsibility and tax cuts. Being somewhat more conservative than liberal Democrats, Blue Dogs have been successful in winning seats that were formerly occupied by Republicans in conservative districts. Blue dog democrats have refused to pay party dues to the Democratic Party on occasion. Some may view the Blue Dogs as an attempt by some democrats to cash in on the swing to conservatism that was experienced in 1994.

However, after President Obama election, and an influx of new voters such as immigrants and young people who by and large vote Democrat, there were talks of a permanent Democratic majority in Congress. Could the Blue Dogs be cashing in more on their Democratic label than their fiscal conservatism? Certainly, being a Republican will be hindrance to politicians in more congressional districts than not in coming years, especially if the economy rebounds under President Obama. So what function do the Blue Dogs served today? While their numbers are small, they are important for the passage of Democratic legislation in Congress. Some say that the power their weld is ridiculously out of proportion to their numbers, and that is true. So what is Nancy Pelosi to do with this group of conservative democrats?

For now, there isn't much that can be done as conservative Blue Dog democrats are still needed for Democrats to retain control of Congress. If midterm elections in 2010 favor the Republicans, which historically might be predicted to happen, then Blue Dogs will cement their power in Congress even further. Blue Dogs might become a de facto third political party which exerts a powerful influence on Republicans and Democrats. However, if Democrats increase their gains in the 2010 election, then more liberal Democrats will be much freer to pass legislation more in line with the majority of the Democratic party.

Time will tell how the Blue Dog's role in the passage of health care reform will unfold. Many Blue Dog democrats are staunchly opposed to a public option on ideological grounds. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has stated on several occasions that a public option must be part of any legislation that comes out of the House. While Pelosi has presented the health care legislation as likely passing, the Democrats appear more divided on this issue of health care than on any other issue that has come before Congress in the past couple years.

Sources:

Blue Dog Coalition

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition

Democrats health-care split makes predictions impossible

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/1240576.html