Boxing Preview: Arthur Abraham vs. Andre Dirrell

On March 6th at the Rancho Mirage in California, the Super Six Boxing Tournament will continue as "King" Arthur Abraham meets Andre "The Matrix" Dirrell. The event pits two of the world's best 168 lbs. fighters against each other in the context of a tournament that has already seen knockouts, upset victories and the dramatic retirement of Jermain Taylor.

Andre Dirrell (18-1 with 13 KOs)
26 years old, 6'2" with 75" reach
Olympic Bronze Medal at Middleweight, 2004 Athens Games
American from Flint, Michigan

Dirrell is a slippery fast southpaw with good movement and excellent defensive skills. If he has any real weaknesses, it is in his lack of big fight experience. This was shown most painfully in his previous bout and sole loss to WBC champion Carl Froch. Froch is strong and tough, but slow, plodding and predictable. Dirrell had all the stuff to bewilder Froch and box his ears off, but he gave the Briton far too much respect and allowed him to rough-house his way into the game. The result was a Split Decision loss that many consider to have been a robbery.

Arthur Abraham (31-0 with 25 KOs)
29 years old, 5'10" with 72" reach
Former IBF Middleweight Champion
Armenian by way of Germany

Abraham is a patient, calculating puncher. He likes to fight behind a high, peek-a-boo guard, slowly coming forward and probing his opponent until he finds and opening. He then consistently drills that weakness, often resulting in a one-punch knockdown or knockout. Abraham first garnered world attention by outpointing the Colombian thug Edison Miranda, gutting out most of that fight with a shattered jaw. He destroyed Miranda in the rematch, as well as having beaten up Raul Marquez, outpointed the skilled Briton Howard Eastman, and knocked out Jermain Taylor in the first round of the Super Six Tournament.

Analysis and Prediction
Many experts are calling for Dirrell to win this fight, and they do have a point. Abraham does have a style that dictates that he will do very little and give away several rounds. On paper, Dirrell is the faster, slicker fighter, and Abraham seems like a plodder who won't be able to catch him. However, that analysis betrays a naive armchair boxer, and based on it fighters like Rocky Marciano should never have won a big fight in their lives.

This fight boils down to confidence and the stability that comes with it. Dirrell will have a big help in that department, since he is fighting in the United States before a (presumably) hometown crowd. However, he is also coming off his first loss and will need to have both gotten over that and found a psychological footing made out of concrete in the meantime to beat Arthur Abraham.

Dirrell could go so far as to shut out Abraham of all 6 round of the first half of the fight, but sooner or later he is going to be reduced to clinching with the Armenian puncher. Dirrell found himself unable to fend off Froch throughout their fight, had to grab on in an amateurish fashion, and Abraham is much more skilled than Froch. What this means against Abraham is that Dirrell will either have to accept Abraham walking him down, or eat a hard punch when he tries to clinch and avoid being walked down. Either way, when Abraham finds his rhythm, Dirrell's will get the hurt put on him. In the meantime, Abraham will take very little damage, as his arms will soak up most of Dirrell's punching. Andre Dirrell lacks the sheer physical power necessary to push those arms apart and bust Abraham up. It is Dirrell that will get worn down by constant movement and the hard shots he will eventually take, while Abraham will remain fresh and dangerous right into Round 12. Fighting far from home should not effect a fighter of Abraham's rock-solid character and determination in the slightest.

Winner: Arthur Abraham TKO11

Sources: live fight footage: sports.sho.com/world-boxing-classic.html: boxrec.com/list_bouts.php?human_id=208432&cat=boxer: boxrec.com/list_bouts.php?human_id=291903&cat=boxer