Brock Lesnar and the Heavyweight Division

Brock Lesnar will return, possibly in July of this year to take on his first opponent, having been away from fighting due to some serious health issues. The champion is regaining his weight and strength but seems to have a very tough task on his hands considering the state of the UFC Heavyweight division. So much talent is emerging here that even Brock Lesnar fans should start to be worried about his chances of keeping the title. The pool of quality fighters is growing rapidly with the success of the powerful wrestlers like Cain Velasquez and Shane Carwin as well as the awesome striking abilities of Junior Dos Santos. All three also have the physical qualities and the youth to compete against the more mature fighters like Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira as well as Brock himself. UFC is doing a good job.

UFC 110 has been a disaster for Nogueira but showed that Cain Velasquez is not only a great wrestler but can strike with KO power that no one seemed to think he had. A combination of good hands and great wrestling abilities make him a threat to any fighter in the division and his last performance really sets him up to challenge Brock for the title. Can he do it? Both are physically strong and fast, both have excellent wrestling abilities. This is a fight that everyone wants to see. Personally I would love to see who wins the wrestling game here. Brock has I think superior power but Cain potentially has better technique. Brock Lesnar's state of health may be an issue but we won't be able to determine this until we see him fight.

The next item is of course Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin. Frank Mir looked amazing against Cheick Congo (and an amazing trash talker) while Shane Carwin has not really shown himself yet to be on the same level. This fight could go the distance but we will really have to see if Shane Carwin has the submission defense that you need to keep Mir at bay. The fight will also be for the Interim UFC HW title and would put the winner on a collision course with Lesnar, so clearly an important bout for the division.

Junior Dos Santos amazes me. His striking is simply incredible. The ease with which he took care of Fabricio Werdum and Gilbert Yvel was simply stunning and I did not believe he had it in him. This talented striker will go a long way but the question is what can he do if he gets taken down by a wrestler like Velasquez or Lesnar. His takedown defense is no doubt good, but he has not yet faced fighters like them and it would be interesting to see whether he has the tools for this kind of fight.

Lastly, if you talk about the heavyweight division, you must mention Fedor. It looks like another scandal involving M1 and Finkelstein is about to be unleashed. Gegard Mousasi leaving the M1 camp is the first sign. Now it looks like Fedor will not be fighting on the Strikeforce CBS card in April. I can venture an explanation here.

Gegard Mousasi was an asset of M1 in November for the first CBS event. M1 contributed Fedor and Mousasi and this seemed enough for Strikeforce to make the co-promotion deal. Now however, M1 can only contribute Fedor while Strikeforce gives Dan Henderson, Shields, Mousasi, Lawal and others. How can they share the profits 50-50 in this case? It does not make any economic sense and that is why Strikeforce can no longer come to terms with M1. Strikeforce takes nearly all the cost, while any profits are shared 50-50, both get to promote their brand equally. (by the way Vadim Finkelstein's talk about strong European leverage in the fight business is crap)

Nevertheless Strikeforce still has a contract with M1 for two more Fedor fights. This means that most likely Fedor will still have to fight under Strikeforce-M1 banner. If he fights in May, the card they setup is going to be much weaker but with Fedor as the headline fight, whether it is against Werdum or someone else.

In the end, after all the talk about what the fans want, for M1 it is all about the personal interests of its shareholders, Sergei Matvienko and Vadim Finkelstein (crazy Russians Dana White calls them). They don't care if Fedor does not fight Lesnar. They want to make money on Fedor and with the UFC, only Fedor himself can make money. This is not good for them. Fedor trusts these guys but of course he is making a big mistake.

The UFC is the future and Strikeforce is a great breeding ground for new talent. I believe guys like Gegard Mousasi and Bobby Lashley will move to the UFC and Strikeforce is simply a stepping stone for them. A chance to gain experience and make some money along the way.