Buffalo Bills: Next Steps

Jauron was deservedly fired, although cases could be made that others (I'm looking at you, Tom Cable) could have gone before him. Still, more heads than Jauron's will roll before mini-camps roll around again.

However, this is not to pile on Jauron; that's too easy. Now that the Bills have identified one of their problems, how do they fix the remaining mess? How does any current bottom-feeder become one of the glamour franchises?

The answer is as simple as it is difficult: draft better.

Nothing will turn an awful team into a contender faster than drafting well. Nothing will keep a team at the bottom of the league for the length of a mortgage like drafting poorly.

Fact: Jim Finks drafted 19 of the 22 starters for the Chicago Bears Super Bowl Shufflers. A couple of them, Walter Payton and Mike Singletary, are all-timers at their respective positions. If we must find fault with anyone for why that team won only once, remember that there is very little room for error or ego. The San Francisco 49ers of that era define professionalism even now, and Bill Parcells was just beginning his run in New York when the Bears won it all. Still, had Mike Ditka been able to choke on his own ego for even two more seasons and kept Buddy Ryan on board, this team might have won at least two more times before age sapped Payton's legendary legs.

Sure, you might say; that was back in the dark ages, before drafting became a science. To which I respond: if drafting is a science, then the Indianapolis Colts (glamour franchise) are on the Edwin Hubble end of the scale, while the Cleveland Browns (bottom feeder) remain mud-painted savages sacrificing virgins to the rain gods.

A couple of weeks ago, Peter King of Sports Illustrated pointed out that the Cleveland Browns are no better off now than they were ten years ago as an expansion franchise. This got the wheels turning. Thus, in a purely unscientific, clearly biased, and ultimately rewarding study that I conducted on my own dime, I decided to look up the draft records for the Colts (nine double-digit win seasons since 1999, currently 9-0, with one Super Bowl win) and the Browns (seven double-digit loss seasons since 1999, currently 1-7, with one losing playoff appearance). Because I'm lazy, and because I suspected what the evidence would tell me, I refined my draft record search to one factor: first picks. In the chart below are the first picks for the Browns and the Colts; the number represents the overall draft position of the player.

The results are as telling as the records of both teams. The first pick for both teams is listed for every year since 1999. The asterisk (*) means that the player is a current starter for the franchise that drafted him.

1999 QB Tim Couch, 1 (Browns).........................RB Edgerrin James, 4
2000 DE Courtney Brown, 1 (Browns)................LB Rob Morris, 28
2001 DT Gerard Warren, 3 (Browns)..................WR Reggie Wayne, 30*
2002 RB William Green, 16 (Browns).................DE Dwight Freeney, 11*
2003 C Jeff Faine, 21 (Browns).............................TE Dallas Clark, 24*
2004 TE Kellen Winslow Jr., 5 (Browns).............DB Bob Sanders, 44 (* Inj.)
2005 WR Braylon Edwards, 3 (Browns)..............DB Marlin Jackson, 29
2006 DE Kamerion Wimbley, 13* (Browns)........RB Joseph Addai, 30*
2007 T Joe Thomas, 3* (Browns)........................WR Anthony Gonzalez, 32(*Inj.)
2008 LB Beau Bell, 104 (Browns)..........................T Mike Pollak, 59*
2009 C Alex Mack, 21* (Browns)............................RB Donald Brown, 27

While my selection was purely accidental, these results are not. The Colts have missed on as many players as the Browns currently have starting for them. More to the point, the Colts have consistently drafted in the mid-to-late 20s, while the Browns have drafted in the top five picks six (!!) times.

It's probably just rubbing salt in the wound to note that the guy replacing wounded WR Anthony Gonzalez in the current starting lineup was drafted 127th overall last year (Austin Collie).

The point can't be made more simply: in a league with a hard salary cap, the draft is the only way to climb out of the cellar and compete.

This is not to say that free agent signings aren't important; of course, they are. However, given the salary cap, teams simply can't open the checkbook and fill all of their needs in the offseason. Free agents are anything but free, and overspending on one will only cost a team when either a truly attractive player becomes available or, worse, one of their own drafted players develops into an All-Pro but there's no money in the budget to keep him.

Besides, the Bills are anything but one player away. What they need to do is find the next Bill Polian (currently the Colts GM) and let him pick the players and coach that will turn this franchise around...sorta like Polian did when he was picking players for the Bills that would play in four straight Super Bowls.

There's a lesson somewhere in there for Buffalo, methinks...