Bush's Middle East Trip Likely to Yield Little

President Bush arrived at Ben Gurion airport in Israel today, marking the start of a nine day tour of the Middle East in which he will seek to make advances on two fronts: further dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians and the limiting of Iranian influence in the region. Bush will likely make symbolic appearances in Iraq and Afghanistan as well, stopping briefly to meet with U.S. troops fighting in the two countries.

Analysts from several think tanks have weighed in with opinions of the Bush trip, and the emerging consensus is that the President will not be able to accomplish much of substance in the region. In trying to build on the Annapolis peace summit, which produced an agreement of understanding between Arabs and Israelis, experts say Mr. Bush is fighting an uphill battle. Although Bush has remained upbeat about the prospects for peace, Michael Moran, writing in an analysis for the Council on Foreign Relations, says, "White House optimism aside, doubts proliferate."

Similarly, in a press conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), CSIS Director and Senior Fellow of the Middle East Program Jon Alterman said recently, "The Bush administration has been mugged by reality. After vowing to transform the Middle East, the administration is submitting to it, resorting to the sort of process-driven incremental diplomacy that previous administrations had pursued and that this administration had disdained."

Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution thinks the highly contested presidential primaries will deflect attention away from any steps Bush takes while traveling through the region. Speaking at a media roundtable for the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Riedel said, "...I think the President is going to struggle to get on screen in the United States over the next several days...." Steven Erlanger, Chief Jerusalem Correspondent for the New York Times, told consulting editor Bernard Gwertzman of the Council on Foreign Relations in an interview, "...nobody, especially on the Israeli side, expects much to come out of this visit-or, frankly, out of the Annapolis peace process."

While the majority of Bush's visit to the Middle East will focus on advancing the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the President will also make an effort to limit the influence of Iran in the region. Bush will likely discuss the recent U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, which concluded Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program, with Israeli leaders, and seek to bolster the confidence of regional Sunni allies wary of an increasingly powerful Iran. Still no one is sure if Bush can still accomplish anything with elections looming in the United States. Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says, "People are going to be polite; they will be accommodating in some ways, but they are well aware that this is not only an election year; it is an election year from an administration that really has no heir that can really speak for the future or run for the future."

Sources: Council on Foreign Relations, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Brookings Institution, Gwertzman Asks the Experts Interview Series