Butler Advances to 2010 NCAA National Championship Game

The Butler Bulldogs, who many (myself included) didn't expect to advance past the Sweet Sixteen, made it all the way to the Final Four. Now, behind the same defense and tenacity that forced well disciplined teams like Syracuse and Kansas State to commit sloppy turnovers and poor shots, Butler has advanced to the National Championship game.

How Butler Beat Michigan State

Early on, Butler looked out of sync on both offense and defense. Michigan State led by as many as seven points in the first half. Although Butler's offense never seemed to find its rhythm (the Bulldogs shot only 31% from the field for the game), the Butler defense shut down Michigan State's attack after the first seven minutes of the game. Michigan State committed twice as many turnovers as Butler over the course of the game, and the Spartans found themselves in foul trouble very early in the second half. Although Butler's offensive woes prevented them from building anything more than a six point lead, Michigan State's inability to solve Butler's relentless defense and pace prevented the Spartans from overtaking the Bulldogs in the end. Now Butler will get to play for the 2010 NCAA National Championship in their hometown, Indianapolis.

What Butler Must Do to Win the National Championship

As of this writing, Butler's opponent in the 2010 NCAA National Championship game has yet to be decided. Butler's route to winning the National Championship, however, will be the same, regardless of whether they play West Virginia or Duke.

Butler has won every game in the 2010 NCAA Tournament because they have forced their opponents to solve their defense and play at a pace much slower than many teams are used to playing. None of Butler's opponents have managed to score sixty points on them so far in the tournament (Syracuse and UTEP both scored 59). The only opponent to commit less turnovers than Butler in a game were the Kansas State Wildcats, who lost because they shot 10% worse from the field than Butler.

Although Butler managed to still beat Michigan State while having a field goal percentage of 31%, they will have trouble beating either Duke or West Virginia shooting that poorly. The Bulldogs' defense allows the offense some leeway, so they don't have to be terrific from the offensive end to win. If they shoot even a modest 40% from the field, they can generally win.

One big question in the Championship game will be the health of starting guard Shelvin Mack. Mack missed much of the second half of Butler's victory over Michigan State and was the only Butler player to shoot over 50% in the game against the Spartans. Without Mack, Butler will have a hard time generating offense.

If Butler wins the turnover battle and Mack is healthy enough to play most of the Championship game, they should be able to beat either West Virginia or Duke. It won't be easy for either team, but the Butler Bulldogs have won 25 straight games, and I don't foresee the 2010 National Championship game snapping that streak.

Predictions for 2010 National Championship Game

The following predictions are based on both Shelvin Mack being able to play and that the winner of the West Virginia vs. Duke game also does not have a player suffer a significant injury. Here are predictions for both possible opponents for the Butler Bulldogs:

Butler defeats West Virginia, 62-57

Butler defeats Duke, 61-59

Source(s):

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=300930127

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket