Buy or Sell: Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Edition

Building a successful fantasy baseball team is like building a strong portfolio of stocks - the key is to acquire undervalued players and sell overvalued players. As the season enters its second month, here is a quick snapshot of some pitchers whose value is higher through the first month of the season than anyone would have projected and whether or not they are likely to keep up the pace.

Joe Saunders & Ervin Santana - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - SP - Not only do they support sub 3.00 ERA's after the first month of the season but they are also tied (with Chien-ming Wang) with 6 wins to lead the American League. That is where the similarities end. Shuttling back and forth between the minor and the majors last year, Saunders started last season 6 - 0 as well - although the sixth win came in August. Since his third start, he's ERA has been 3.67, which is more indicative of where it will end up. He's not going to strike many batters out with 21 K's in 48 innings pitched. See if you can dangle him in front of a league member whose starting pitchers have struggled out of the gate and might be willing to overpay. For the remainder for the season, Saunders is likely looking to provide your team 6 wins, 80K's with an ERA close to 5.00, you should be targeting a pitcher that you think will exceed those numbers the rest of the way - of which you should have lots of options.

On the other hand, Santana has been getting stronger as the season has progressed and is looking for more like the pitcher that won 16 games in 2006 as opposed to the pitcher that was demoted to the minors last year. On pace for 24 wins and 160 strikeouts. I think they strikeouts are likely to keep up, so the question is how many wins? I don't think 18 - 20 is an unreasonable projection given that Santana plays is arguably the worst division in baseball. The ERA will fall back closer to 3.50, but unless someone is offering an elite starter, I'd ride it out with Ervin and see if he's turned the corner.

Edinson Volquez - Cincinnati Reds - SP - Yet to give up more than 1 earned run in a game, the National League ERA leader has been a pleasant surprise for the Reds and for the fantasy baseball owner who took a late round flyer or early season pick-up. He's been dominant having at least 7 K's in all but one start. Over the course of the season, expect there to be bumps in the road as there are with any young pitcher - especially when it gets warm in the home run park he plays in. That said, Volquez is clearly the high risk, high reward player. Like Tim Linecum of the Giants last year, there will be some rough outings as the season wears on, but as long as he continues to minimize the walks and keep the strikeouts high, Volquez has value in any format. I'd dangle is his name out there and see what you might be able to get in return. On a side note - for a team in perennial need of pitching, what did the Rangers not see or what in their system is preventing pitchers from performing at this high level?

George Sherrill - Baltimore Orioles - RP - Exemplifies why several fantasy baseball strategists will say to never pay for saves as Sherrill was likely one of the last closers drafted in your AL-only league and may potentially have gone undrafted in mixed leagues. With 11 saves through the first 6 weeks of the season, he's been fairly effective as of the 7 runs he's allowed this year, 5 came in two appearances which has led to the high ERA. Going forward, you have to consider selling him. As a lefty on a rebuilding team, there is an above average chance he gets traded to a contending team at the deadline (and yes, the Orioles will be in last place by then) that needs bullpen help but probably does not need him as closer, for example - Detroit, Philadelphia, St. Louis, all possible destinations. See if you can package him with another player to get one of the elite closers that is not going to lose their job anytime soon for a smooth transition.

Chad Gaudin - Oakland Athletics - SP - Sell. Sell. Sell. See if you can get anything in return for him as soon as possible. Like last year, he's off to a nice start with 4 quality starts in 6 appearances, a sub-4.00 ERA with 3 wins on the upstart Oakland Athletics. Last year, his ERA was under 3.00 until the All-Star break so some unsuspecting owner (don't let it be you) might think he has the ability to turn in a quality season. He's an average pitcher that with a few good starts can be turned into a quality reliever or solid hitter for your team. But you must strike early before everyone realizes he's a 4.5 ERA with mediocre strikeout and limited win potential.