By 2020 the Internet Will Be Mobile

America's addiction to information and social media along with advanced communications technology will transform the Intent in the next decade, and soon mobile device like the Apple iPhone or Samsung Q1 will be the most common way to access the web.

"The mobile device will be the primary connection tool to the Internet for most people in the world in 2020," wrote Janna Quitney Anderson and Lee Rainie in a December 2008 report from the Pew Internet & American Life Project. That report, The Future of the Internet III, surveyed 1,196 web-savvy Americans, including 578 Internet "experts" about how the Internet would change in the near future. Of those surveyed 81 percent agreed that the world wide web was going mobile in just a little more than a decade.

Three factors seem to be driving this trend toward an untethered Internet, including (1) growing broadband infrastructure, (2) advancing semiconductor and electronics technology, and (3) changes in human behavior.

Broadband for All

There are very good indications that U.S. broadband access is reaching the critical mass that will make ubiquitous mobile connections commonplace. For example, at least 90 percent of active American Internet users had broadband in June 2008, according to WebsiteOptimization.com. A separate Pew survey showed that 55 percent of adult Americans had a high-speed Internet connection in 2008, up from 47 percent in 2007. And Internet tracking firm, conScore, reported in March of 2008 that mobile broadband use had risen 154 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared to the same 2006 quarter.

Furthermore, early versions of the new American economic stimulus package included $6.5 billion for broadband expansion, according to an Information Week article. When broadband access is really available anywhere people congregate (not just at your local Starbucks), the trend toward mobile access will be at hand.

Advanced Semiconductor and Electronics Technology

As small as new laptops are, they won't be leading the charge toward more mobile Internet access, rather as new (smaller) semiconductors become available they will enable more powerful and more compact Internet-accessing devices.

"With Intel Centrino Atom processor technology fueling the Mobile Internet Device revolution, your access to great Internet experiences will never be the same," said microprocessor maker, Intel, on its website. "As devices get smaller, sleeker, and lighter than ever, you'll be able to choose from a variety of exciting new devices and meet the demanding needs of your highly mobile lifestyle."

Intel really has a good point. As with any trend, the move toward more mobile Internet access will really happen at the confluence of several new technological advances, including smaller, high-performance processors like Intel's Atom.

Again, there is strong evidence that the technology will be in place before 2020 for most users to access the Internet from a mobile device, and the iPhone is an excellent example. Other key factors that are leading to the required technology include:
• Micron Technology has introduced a 78nm DDR3 DRAM component is small enough to make mobile Internet devices with powerful working memory possible.
• New developments in NAND Flash technology and SSDs are now in place.
• Intel's Atom processor offers the computing power needed for mobile Internet devices.
• Moblin.org and Google (Android) have introduced free, open source mobile operating systems.

Social Media, Hulu, and a Lust for Information

Finally, if mobile Internet access is to become the norm, people will have to change the way they use the Internet. Internet access must become more than just how one gets email or where to go to order a birthday gift for a cousin in Poughkeepsie, and again there is good evidence that a behavioral change is taking place.

In a Pew Internet Project Data Memo, Amanda Lenhart, a senior research analyst, said that 11 percent of American adults had used Twitter, Yammer, and other microblogging sites as of December 2008. And the adults that most often used status update sites like Twitter were also more likely to access the web from a mobile device.

"Twitter users and status updaters are a mobile bunch," wrote Lenhart. "as a group they are much more likely to be using wireless technologies-laptops, handhelds and cell phones- for internet access, or cell phones for text messaging."

"More than three-quarters (76 percent) of Twitter users use the internet wirelessly - either on a laptop with a wireless connection, or via PDA, handheld or cell phone," Lenhart said.

Hulu, the rabidly successful entertainment video streaming site, and Netflix are also changing Internet behavior. Both services along with YouTube, GodTube, and other video sharing sites are transforming the Internet into a broadcast media that may encourage more users to watch news, television, or movies on the go.

And finally, more and more Americans want access to information no matter where they are. As an example, I recently joined a group of six professionals for a friendly lunch. Our hour long conversations covered topics as broad as the war in Afghanistan to vacationing in Europe. Four separate times, someone used a Blackberry, T-Mobile GI, or iPhone to fact check something mentioned in the course of our conversation.

The More Mobile Internet is Coming

As broadband access grows, new technologies emerge, and human behavior evolves the Internet is likely to become far more mobile.

Resources
• Janna Quitney Anderson and Lee Rainie, The Future of the Internet III, Pew Internet & American Life Project, http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_FutureInternet3.pdf.
• US Broadband Penetration Breaks 90% Among Active Internet Users, WebsiteOptimication.com, http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0807/.
• John Horrigan, Home Broadband 2008: Adoption Stalls for low-income American even as many broadband users opt for premium services that give them more speed, Pew Internet & American Life Project, http://www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/257/report_display.asp.
• Number of U.S. Computers Accessing the Internet Via Mobile Broadband Soars 154 Percent in 2007, comScore, http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2099.
• K.C. Jones, Stimulus Deal A Bonanza for Tech Industry, Information Week, http://www.informationweek.com/news/industry/government/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=213900989&subSection=All+Stories.
• Mobile Internet Device, Intel Corporation, http://www.intel.com/products/mid/.
• Micron Technology 1G 78nm DDR3 SDRAM, Semiconductor Insights, http://www.semiconductor.com/resources/reports_database/view_device.asp?sinumber=17330.
• Mark LaPedus, Intel, Micron roll 34-nm NAND Device, EETimes, http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=208400713.
• Solid State Drive, Micron Technology, Inc., http://www.micron.com/products/real_ssd/ssd/index.
• Amanda Lenhart, Pew Internet Project Data Memo: Twitter and status update, Pew Internet & American Life Project, http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP%20Twitter%20Memo%20FINAL.pdf.