California Governor and Senate Races Heat Up; Brown vs. Whitman and Boxer vs. Fiorina

Tustin, Calif. -- The California gubernatorial and Senate races have firmed up with the June 8^th primary settled. Former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) will face off against former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) to replace Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger as California's next governor. Incumbent Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer will defend her seat against Republican and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Both races should be strong and contentious, with all candidates having strong funding.

For Governor

Jerry Brown is a long-time California Democrat politician from the far left of the political spectrum. Brown has served as governor, Secretary of State, is currently the Attorney General of California and is the former mayor of Oakland. A review of Brown's campaign website illustrates his liberal positions via his listed accomplishments, most of which deal with "protecting you" from various examples of "unfair" corporations or promoting multiculturalism. Clear and concise policy positions are absent, but Brown is well known as a liberal activist in California and there is very little doubt what his positions are on almost any major issue.

Meg Whitman arrives to challenge Brown with a business background, the most famous of which is having arrived at eBay when "the company had just $4.7 million in revenues and 30 employees; when she retired in March of 2008, ten years later, the company had nearly $8 billion in revenues and 15,000 employees worldwide." There is no indication from her official bio of how much of that growth can be directly attributed to the former CEO, however. Whitman spent a lot of time during the Republican primary campaign attacking the conservative credentials of her opponents, but she has in the past taken what many conservatives would call liberal positions on social issues. Already her strong rhetoric against illegal immigration is being played down now that she has picked up the Republican nomination. Expect "the only conservative" in the race for governor to start pulling left earlier rather than later.

For U.S. Senate

Barbara Boxer is the three-term Democrat incumbent. Boxer has a long track record in both the House and Senate and there is no mystery to her positions. Senator Boxer is very left-wing on all issues great and small and makes no apologies in a state that tilts heavily Democrat. Her only real weakness is the general distrust and anger against Washington largely due to the economy. California's unemployment rate of almost 13% is higher than the nation's, and there is no end in sight despite Boxer's promises to the contrary.

President Obama has already made appearances at Boxer's fundraisers but so far to little effect. Currently her disapproval rating in California stands at around 45%, which would normally signal very bad news for an incumbent. This is California however, and you have to be a very, very bad Democrat to lose here.

Carly Fiorina is the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who won the Republican nomination to challenge Boxer. Much like Meg Whitman, Fiorina spent the primary campaign claiming to be more conservative than her opponents while downplaying her history of liberal positions on issues. Also like Whitman, expect to see her more hard-line right positions to soften if not disappear altogether once the campaign against Boxer kicks off.

Republicans have a long history of playing to the right to get the nomination and then playing to the left to win the election, but given Boxer's unpopularity in the state this might prove a mistake. Currently Fiorina is anywhere from 7 to 9 points behind, depending on the poll. Her defeated challenger Tom Campbell, whose moderate positions never wavered, was showing a dead even race with Boxer. Clearly Fiorina has her work cut out for her.

The races for California's next governor and Senator will be very hard-fought, especially at a time of voter anger over jobs and the economy. Democrats will have to find ways to dismiss the fact that their party is in power at every level of the state and federal government and has been for some time (Schwarzenegger's "Republican" label notwithstanding). Expect Bush bashing as a regular staple.

Republicans will have to try to harness that same voter anger, but ironically while not becoming too strident against Democrats and especially President Obama, who remains generally popular here. The biggest question for Republicans is how to run against Democrats while not running against Democrat policies. Whitman and Fiorina have to figure out how to contrast themselves from Brown and Boxer enough to attract conservatives and right-leaning moderates without angering too many on the left...and California is mostly left.

The races for governor and Senator in California should be interesting to say the least.

Sources:

Jerry Brown 2010, www.jerrybrown.org

Meg Whitman for Governor of California, www.megwhitman.com

Barbara Boxer for U.S. Senate, www.barbaraboxer.com

Carly Fiorina for California, carlyforcalifornia.com

Martin Wisckol, Immigration could fade as issue in governor's race, Orange County Register (online), June 9, 2010