California Polls: Barack Obama Over John McCain

Although he lost the California Primary Election in February, Barack Obama is heavily favored to win California in November. According to the latest poll by the Rasmussen Reports and the Los Angeles Times/KTLA Poll, Barack Obama is leading John McCain 50% to 43% as the presidential candidate. The Rasmussen Reports involve the use of telephone survey and collected public opinion data to determine whom individuals would prefer to see as America's next commander in chief. The Los Angeles Times/KTLA Poll consisted of interviewing of 834 Californians including 705 registered voters.

This should not come as a surprise. The last few years of general elections have gone democratic in California. California has gone to the Democrat in each of the last four presidential elections. Four in ten Californian believe that the economy is an important issue that will help determine whom they cast their vote for. Another six in ten believe in the woman's right to choose on the issue of abortion. These are issues that Barack Obama share so it is not a wonder that he appears to be in tune with California voters.

Currently, the candidates have not been avidly campaigning in California. Obama just recently wrapped up his nomination and McCain has been busy elsewhere. But as both candidates are aware, California could be a battleground state that can make the general election very competitive. California's 54 electoral votes could be a big win factor for either candidate in November.

Obama has a great ally in Los Angeles' mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the governor's wife Maria Shriver, and many other celebrated personas who will campaign and help to put him on top. Conversely, McCain has the support of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and his allies to help him give Obama a run for his money. Interestingly, Obama is closing the gap on Latino votes. In February, he lost California to Hilary Clinton mostly because he had not connected with the Latinos. Now, after impressive victories in many states since California's super Tuesday bout, the Democrat's presumptive nominee appears to be closing the gap on the Latino votes over McCain. Obama is also closing in on other groups including Catholics and less educated people who had previously gravitated toward Hillary Clinton. What this means is that upon realizing that Obama is the candidate, the Hilary supporters are slowly crossing over to the Obama side. They are realizing the need to unite their party and support whom the nominee is; Barack Obama.

Due to McCain's support of comprehensive immigration reform, he feels that he can compete and win in California. It is his belief that Latinos will be on his side once his strategy to legalize immigrants is made well known. But in this survey, McCain lost the Latino votes to Obama by a 14 point margin. The group that seems strong in California for John McCain is white men, who gave him a 10 point lead over Barack Obama. Other men of color overwhelmingly go with Obama and they can help make the fall election incredibly completive.

Since less than one in three registered voters in California is a Republican, it will be hard to see a McCain victory in November. Barack Obama did better than John McCain among California's independents as well. If McCain is to reverse that, he would have to spend a lot of dough in the golden state, and Barack Obama would have to stand aside and watch.

Sources:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics