California Wildfire Disaster Teaches Some, Not Others

The old saying that "lightning never strikes twice" is not only false -- it's a belief that raises a serious public policy concern in the wake of a major natural disaster, according to news from the National Science Foundation (NSF).

In trying to assess how residents, business owners, community leaders and others will respond in the aftermath of California's devastating wildfires last month, NSF researchers returned to the scene of a previous disaster: a 2003 wildfire in Canada. They found that people in similar circumstances responded in wildly different ways. Some experienced a "post-exposure wake-up call" that left them saying they'd do more to prepare for and react to future wildfires. Others, though, showed "post-exposure letdown," a response marked by the belief that they were actually now safer because the area was unlikely to see a repeat of a similar disaster.

Residents who took the Canada wildfire as a wake-up call were more likely to create fire shelters in their homes, clear away nearby vegetation that could fuel fire or to move out of the area. However, residents feeling the letdown reaction were unlikely to take any actions that could protect their homes from future fires or leave them better prepared to respond.

"There's no doubt residents in California are experiencing the same reactions," said Louie Rivers, science assistant to NSF's decision, risk and management program. "Some people will take appropriate action to protect against future wildfires and some will rebuild on the same spot and take no action."

October's wildfires in Southern California caused more than $1 billion in damage, destroying about 2,100 homes and raging across more than 800 square miles.

Social scientists say they're not surprised by the opposing responses to the same disaster, though they're not yet sure what causes people to perceive risks so differently. Similar responses have been observed after many other major, life-threatening disasters, including floods, earthquakes, hurricanes or volcanic eruptions.

The different responses, though, do highlight the importance of finding better ways to encourage pro-active responses from citizens who might face another disaster in the future. Public officials, in particular, need to address that challenge as effectively as possible.

"The results show that community leaders and public officials need to develop targeted, risk communication strategies immediately following an event for people experiencing post-exposure letdown," Rivers said. "Communication strategies should emphasize the very real risk residents and business owners' face from future events and the need to prepare for such occurrences."

National Science Foundation, "Wildfire Letdowns and Wake-up Calls." URL: (http://nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=110660)