Calls for Cuts in Lumber Production Go Unheeded

Despite hopes that the looming year end would bring some much-needed business to western spruce dealers, things were even slower this week than last. If that's even possible. With customers fully aware that they could get any item they wanted quickly, order files were barely out past one week. Recent calls for more curtailment and cuts in production continued to go unheeded.

Gloomy faces and muted griping were in evidence as prices slipped just that much further downwards. Continued oversupply and lack of demand served to turn a soft market to mush.

KD R/L #2&Btr 2x4 prices tanked by $12 to $220, 2x6 dropped $9 to $245, 2x8 lost $8 to $240, 2x12 stayed close, down $2, to $342, while 2x12 subtracted $8 to $402. ($C, truck, f.o.b. mill south BC).

Studs Steady
Stud prices generally held steady, particularly in Eastern Canada. Interest in 8f sparked somewhat, just enough to keep prices from continuing their recent slide. The common story from all producers this week was "zero inventory building". Customers were so confident they could source product to the end of the year that they bought only what they knew they could use. Industrial markets stayed strong, with most purchases coming from the US. Some producers complained they weren't getting rail cars back; apparently CN Rail has tucked several previously guaranteed cars into storage. Trucks moved out to reloads with no problem. KD 2x6 92-5/8-inch studs rallied up slightly by $5 to $250.

MSR Teetering
In a market openly described as "tough", suppliers admitted it was difficult to get orders. Order files slipped down to one week only as volumes eroded. Customers intentionally kept their inventories light; enough for business but not so much as to get stuck at year end. Prices on 2x6 managed to stay flat, while all lengths of 2x4 slipped down by $5 (Chicago).

ESPF No Action
Customers were buying mostly for year end, causing mills to focus on drumming up business for November and December. The looming slow down in sales forced mills to try to source customers across Canada, thereby avoiding both transit costs and the high dollar in going to the US. There were not a lot of counters, with wholesalers simply not answering, and order files of less than a week. For once transportation was not a problem. Rail cars were plentiful and trucks stood empty. There was a small run on ESPF KD 2x4 Utility, which spirited up $4 to $239.

Green Fir Slow Poke
The slipping and sliding green Douglas Fir prices of recent weeks continued only for 2x4 and 2x6. Longer lengths actually rose by $5, with 2x8 holding firm at $265. The market was described as very slow; producers were selling out of distribution, with outbound sales tepid at best. Order files were out less than a week. Once again customers bought just what they needed as building winds down into winter.

Shakes Done
Producers tried to avoid mental breakdown in a hot market, but no logs coming in. More than a few items were already sold out, and there will be no more until several weeks after the coastal forest strike is settled. Prices shot up, particularly on items no longer stocking the shelves, bringing a tinge of bitter irony into the conversation. HS 24-inch tapered shakes, #2 and #3 16-inch Five-X shingles were all completely done. The list is sure to grow as the weeks pass and the strike drags on. #1 18-inch perfections KD shingles rose sharply by $17 to $277.
In a completely reversed situation to the lumber market, shakes and shingles were in high demand but there was an alarmingly shrinking supply.