Can Anyone Dethrone the Pistons?

The Eastern Conference's Central Division may have been the best division in the NBA a year ago; division champ Detroit led the league with 64 wins, and all five of the division's teams made the playoffs. This season, with Detroit losing center Ben Wallace, and significant changes in Chicago, Milwaukee and Indiana, the Central race may be the most competitive, and unpredictable, in the league.

Detroit Pistons
2005-06 Results: 64-18, Central Division Champions, lost to Miami in Eastern Conference Finals

Few 64-win teams make major changes in the off-season. After failing to replace center Ben Wallace, who signed with Chicago as a free agent, Detroit added only depth and two low second-round draft picks, along with former Spur Nazr Mohammed to replace Wallace in the middle.

The key question for Detroit is whether its remaining stars will be enough to hold off young, improving teams in Chicago, Milwaukee, Indiana, and Cleveland. Mohammed won't entirely replace Wallace's defensive or rebounding prowess, but the addition of Ronald 'Flip' Murray gives the Pistons much-needed depth at guard. Detroit looked sluggish in the playoffs a year ago, even while knocking off division foe Cleveland, and a strengthened bench led by Murray and Antonio McDyess may ease the workload of the Pistons' starters. While the loss of Wallace is troubling, his defensive presence may have been overstated: Detroit ranked 13th in opposition field goal percentage a year ago, but 3rd in points allowed, in large part because they led the league in lowest opposition 3-point field goal percentage. Their defense - their hallmark for their three-year run - works not only inside, but outside, and should continue to be effective even with Wallace in Chicago.

While the consensus seems to be that Detroit is vulnerable to a charge from its younger division foes, bear this in mind: the Pistons won the Central by a whopping 14 games a year ago, despite clinching the Eastern Conference's best record with nine games to play. While the Pistons may not expect to dominate as they did in the first half of the 2005-06 season, the gap between them and the rest of the division will only be narrowed, not bridged, in 2006-2007.

Projected Finish: First

Milwaukee Bucks
2005-06 Results: 40-42, 5th place in Central Division, lost to Detroit in Eastern Conference 1st Round

The best last-place team in the league a year ago, Milwaukee made some intriguing off-season moves, most notably acquiring Charlie Villanueva from Toronto for point guard T.J. Ford. The acquisition of Villanueva (13.0 ppg as a rookie a year ago) gives shooting guard Michael Redd consistent scoring help. With Maurice Williams re-claiming the point guard duties, and Andrew Bogut developing at center, the Bucks can expect to have five, and possibly six players averaging double digits in points this season.

The Bucks' biggest concern will be their depth; outside of sixth man Ruben Patterson, the Bucks have little in terms of scoring, athleticism or explosiveness off the bench. But given the youth of their starting five, Milwaukee will be on the league's most intriguing teams. If Villanueva, Bogut, and Williams improve, Milwaukee can compete for the division title. As it stands, no team in the division can match their firepower on offense.

Projected Finish: Second

Indiana Pacers
2005-06 Results: 41-41, 3rd place (tie) in Central Division, lost to New Jersey in Eastern Conference 1st Round

Donnie Walsh and Larry Bird wasted no time rebuilding the Pacers over the off-season, bringing in 11 new players via a number of trades and free agent signings. Most notable was their re-acquisition of forward Al Harrington from Atlanta; he will combine with Jermaine O'Neal and Danny Granger to form one of the conference's best frontcourts. With Jamaal Tinsley and scoring guard Stephen Jackson, the Pacers should improve on last year's 23rd-ranked offense.

The Pacers ranked 5th defensively a year ago; with a deep bench, excellent size, and athleticism at all five positions, they should again be a solid defensive team. With one of the league's best head coaches in Rick Carlisle, Indiana should be a much improved team in 2006-2007. The biggest concern is whether all the new faces can gel together, and how long it will take. The Pacers may get off to a slow start, but could be a very dangerous team down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Projected Finish: Third

Cleveland Cavaliers
2005-06 Results: 50-32, 2nd place in Central Division, lost to Detroit in Eastern Conference Semifinals

The Cavs return all five starters from their first 50-win team in thirteen years, and with MVP runner-up LeBron James leading the way, big things are expected from Cleveland this season.

The question is how much improvement the Cavs can expect after a quiet off-season; adding David Wesley, Scot Pollard, and first-round pick Shannon Brown may help the bench, but none of the three will take the offensive load off James' shoulders. Cleveland fans have to be worried about the depth at guard, where the Cavs have three serviceable point guards - starter Eric Snow, reserve Damon Jones, and Wesley - but no true backup to Larry Hughes, who has missed over a third of his teams' games over the past three seasons. In the frontcourt, center Zydrunas Ilgauskas and sixth man Donyell Marshall are both over 30, and neither the well-traveled Pollard nor reserve center Varejao are capable NBA starters.

LeBron will continue to excel, and may garner his first MVP trophy this season; but without more help, it's hard to see the Cavs jumping another level this season. With the advances made by their division rivals, Cleveland may have fallen back by standing still.

Projected Finish: Fourth

Chicago Bulls
2005-06 Results: 41-41, 3rd place (tie) in Central Division, lost to Miami in Eastern Conference 1st Round

GM John Paxson has been more than active in his three-plus years as Bulls' GM, and this off-season was no different. In addition to the publicized signing of center Ben Wallace, Paxson acquired rookies Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha in draft-night deals and moved Tyson Chandler for veteran P.J. Brown and high-flying youngster J.R. Smith.

What will all this maneuvering accomplish in 2006-2007? It's hard to tell. On paper, the Bulls look solid, particularly on defense. Wallace, Brown and small forward Andres Nocioni may form the league's best defensive frontcourt, and help overcome the occasional defensive struggles of guards Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon. The bench features Thomas, Sefolosha, and Dukies Luol Deng and Chris Duhon, and coach Scott Skiles will be able to go ten or even twelve deep should the situation arise.

But will the Bulls' offense be up to the task? Gordon, Hinrich, and Nocioni should all be capable 15-point per game scorers this season, but neither Brown nor Wallace provide a reliable low-post offensive option. In a league where a dominant scorer is seemingly required for success, the Bulls desperately need Gordon - or Nocioni - to develop into a consistently dangerous threat. Gordon's 41.7% career field goal percentage suggests that he may not be ready to take on that load. The Bulls should again be a solid team, but they don't appear ready to take the next step.

Projected Finish: Fifth