Can the Detroit Lions Make it to 10 Wins?

Trying to figure out how the Lions will do in any given season is kind of like playing Russian Roulette. It's really scary and generally not worth it. But being the brave man that he is, Detroit Lions Quarterback Jon Kitna tried to do just that before the season started, saying "I really think we should not win any less than 10 games this year, to be honest."

It was a big message that garnered a lot of mainstream media attention. Even today the comment is the main story for the Lions this season, and analysts generally reference it while talking about the Lions.

So far commentators have been talking about Kitna's prediction in a positive light, thanks to the fact that the Lions are 3-1. While this is indeed a very good start. will the Lions be able to keep it up? Let's look at the rest of the Lion's schedule and see what their chances are.

Week 5: @ Washington
This will be an interesting test for the Lions. In the Lions 3 wins they picked apart three horrible quarterbacks. In the Lions one very gruesome loss they got torched by a very good quarterback. With Jason Campbell they are facing a quarterback who is establishing himself as pretty average. If Campbell is able to do very well against the Lions, it won't bode well for the future. The game is also on the road, and the Lions are traditionally worse than almost any other team on the road. However, I have to believe that Jon Kitna will absolutely destroy Washington's also average pass defense, and the Lions will eek out a close win.
Verdict: Win (4-1)

Week 7: vs. Tampa Bay
Jeff Garcia will probably come into this game with a chip on his shoulder after the way his tenure in Detroit ended. And he may just have a shot at revenge as the Bucs have looked pretty impressive on their way to a 3-1 record. While the record may look nice, there's a deeper truth behind it. The Bucs three wins have come over the Rams, the Saints and the Panthers. The Rams and the Saints are currently in a race to see who can be the worst team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers are always so inconsistent that it's tough to read much into any win against them. The only real legitimate team the Bucs have played are the Seahawks, and the Seahawks beat them with relative ease. This is another one that could be close, but with the Lions at home, I think they'll take this one as well, especially with Carnell Williams out for the season.
Verdict: Win (5-1)

Week 8 @ Chicago
As bad as the Bears quarterback situation seems to be right now, and as impressive as that 34 point spot the Lions put up on the Bears in the 4^th Quarter in Week 4, I think the Bears will get their revenge here and give the Lions their 2^nd loss of the season. Remember that the Bears had chances to beat the Lions despite the bad play of Brian Griese and the fact that a good chunk of their defensive starters were out. By Week 8 a lot of the Bears defensive corps will be back in action. Not to mention that the Lions have gotten absolutely smoked at Soldier Field in the last two years. They just don't play well there at all and it probably won't change here.
Verdict: Loss (5-2)

Week 9 vs. Denver
The Broncos are looking a bit iffy right now, but the fact of the matter is, an iffy AFC team is usually better than a "good" NFC team. Cutler has established himself as a pretty solid quarterback, and Travis Henry is doing great this year. A well-oiled two pronged attack like this could do in the Lions like it did in Philadelphia. But another doomsday message for the Lions is that Denver currently has the best passing defense in the NFL. The Lions themselves have the #1 passing offense in the NFL, so it could be an intriguing matchup, but defense generally trumps offense in these situations. Never count out the Lions in a home game, but Denver probably sneaks away with a victory here.
Verdict: Loss (5-3)

Week 10 @ Arizona
It's always entertaining when two of the most incompetent franchises in NFL history face off. Except this time, both teams could go into the game actually playing for a playoff spot. Arizona looks good after beating the previously dominant Steelers, however, I'm going to guess that was more from Ken Whisenhunt knowing his former team over the Cardinals suddenly getting good. Arizona's quarterback situation is really iffy right now. Leinart has been very streaky, and while Warner has been good, he could start his own downhill slide any moment. I think, as they have done in all their wins so far, the Lions will take advantage of any Quarterback problems the Cardinals have to force a lot of INTs and turnovers, and win the road game.
Verdict: Win (6-3)

Week 11 vs. NY Giants
The Giants have just an average defense, and the Lions have the capability to make an average defense look flat out bad. So the real question going into this game is whether the Giants Offense will be able to keep up with the Lions offense. Ever since Eli's explosive week 1, he just hasn't been the same. He hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been great. And while Derrick Ward is decent, he's not going to single-handedly take apart the Lions. So this whole game could come down to whether Eli is at his best or not by the time week 11 comes around. While that's tough to determine from here, I think with the Lions at home, they'll probably win either way.
Verdict: Win (7-3)

Week 12 vs. Green Bay
This could be a very interesting clash of similar styles. The Packers are a team relying completely on the play of their veteran quarterback (Brett Favre, but you knew that), with almost no run game and a somewhat weak defense. The Lions are in exactly the same boat, except their running game has at least shown signs of life on occasion unlike the Packers. Both quarterbacks will make mistakes and make big plays. The main difference between these teams though is that the Lions defense has a knack for taking advantage of mistakes by other quarterbacks. They are tied for the league lead with 9 INTs this year. Favre may be playing great so far, but he's still the same Favre, the Lions will get intercept him if he misses a risky pass. Also, it's at Ford Field, where the Lions have shown they have the ability to beat the Packers. I think the Lions will take this one.
Verdict: Win (8-3)

Week 13 @ Minnesota
The Lions game in week 2 against the Vikings at Ford Field was a close overtime game. Now that the game is shifting to Minnesota, it may seem like an obvious choice to go with the Vikings. However, the only reason that game was so close was because Kitna was out for 2 whole quarters. If the Lions have Kitna for an entire game against the Vikings, I have no doubt they'll breeze to a win.
Verdict: Win (9-3)

Week 14: vs. Dallas
A lot of Lions have told the press that they really started buying into Jon Kitna and the Lions system after their emotional Week 17 win against the Cowboys last year. While this means the Lions can definitely take down the Cowboys at home, it looks like it might be difficult this time around. Last time, while the Lions offense was great, they relied on a shaky Romo to turn the ball over three times. This year, under Wade Phillips, Romo seems like a new man and is dominating early on. This should be a great game, but the Cowboys will probably sneak away from Ford Field with a tough win.
Verdict: Loss (9-4)

Week 15: @ San Diego
While the Chargers look absolutely pathetic right now, the fact remains is that they still have essentially the same team that made it to 14-2 last year. I find it incredibly hard to believe that Rivers, LT and crew won't be able to pull things together by the end of the season. In fact, by week 15 the Lions could be facing the Chargers at their very best, and I don't think that's something they'll be able to handle yet, especially on the road. Thus, they will remain tantalizingly close to that 10 win mark.
Verdict: Loss (9-5)

Week 16: vs. Kansas City
Some people are starting to get excited about the Chiefs thanks to their big win over the Chargers. However, outside of against the Chargers, Kansas City's offense just hasn't looked good at all this year. If Larry Johnson is healthy and is at his best, this could be a tough game. The Chiefs defense is currently ranked as one of the best in the league, but they've faced some of the most incompetent offenses in the NFL so far this year. I think the Chiefs are a lot weaker than they may currently appear, and the Lions will handle business at home, and reach the fabled 10 win mark right here.
Verdict: Win (10-5)

Week 17 @ Green Bay
The Lions haven't won at Lambeau Field since 1991, which is insane since the Lions play there every year. For whatever reason, maybe it's the cold, maybe it's the fans, or maybe it's a mental aspect, the Lions just can't get it done here. And as long as the Favre stays healthy all year, the Lions will probably be leaving Wisconsin with another loss at Lambeau.
Verdict: Loss (10-6)

So maybe Jon Kitna is right, and the Lions can make it to 10 wins. However, Kitna is playing his own game of Russian Roulette every time he touches the ball. The Lions offensive line has been very bad this year, letting up more sacks than any other team. If Kitna gets hit the wrong way, like in week 2 against the Vikings, and goes out for the season, you might as well just mark the Lions down for another depressing losing season. So in the end, for the Lions to have a successful season, they will have to overcome one of the main obstacles that has held them back every year, bad luck.