Can Obama Beat the "Bradley Effect"?

Tom Bradley, an African American mayor of Los Angeles, California in the 80s, was a household name. Bradley confidently decided to run as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against the white Republican candidate George Deukmejian. During the race Bradley seemingly had taken the election, based on exit polls. A good percentage of the media projected Bradley winning, even the San Francisco Chronicle posting on their headlines "Bradley Win Projected." After all the votes were counted Bradley surprisingly came up short, losing. According Gallup polls Monday, October 20th, likely voters for Obama are 52 percent while McCain sits at 42 percent.

In a new nationwide survey by Gallup, individuals where asked "Does the fact that Barack Obama is black make you much more likely to vote for him?" Eighty-eight percent of white people surveyed said it made no difference. In contrast 78 percent of black voters felt the same way. Gallup polling director Frank Newport writes: "The data reviewed here suggest that while most voters deny that Obama's race affects them personally, many do think it will have an effect on the race overall -- either helping Obama or hurting him. Still, there is no consensus on the part of the average voters on whether Obama's race will be a net plus or a net minus."

If Obama wins.

It is no secret racism is still alive in this country. So what will be the effect of having the first African America president? When asking this question to 25 African American soldiers and 25 Caucasians soldiers the responses ranged. Most said that that it would change the country for the good, but some added that having a black president could possibly cause race tension.

While at the Biden rally in Tacoma, I spoke to soldier wanting to go only by Sergeant Willey. He said "I think that if Obama becomes president, African Americans will have to cut out the old saying "Sticking it to the man." I am not racist, and I have plenty of black friends, like Chris here, but seriously this will prove it don't matter what color you are, you can be what ever you want, even being the damn president." Responding to Sergeant Willey's comment, Specialist Chris said with a laugh, "Come on Willey, do you actually think things will change? I will still have a hard time getting a job when I get out, and I will still be watched when I walk in stores. Obama will not cure racism; he will only put a band aid on it."

In this campaign Obama has tried diligently to stay away from the race card, also deflecting the "angry black man" stereo type. Obama in the last 13 days of the race has moved to the critical battleground states, including Florida. According to the Washington post, the Obama camp is targeting 600,000 black voters who are registered to vote but who don't show up regularly on Election Day. The electoral map is changing everyday. The question that we won't know till later on after the election: Did the Bradley effect rear its ugly head?