Can the Padres Win the West?

For the past couple of years, the Padres have not been the team to beat. Despite a couple post season appearances through their history, they are still one of the eight teams to never win a World Series. The past three years have been extremely rough with no postseason appearances at all. These factors have all combined to leave the Friars as one team that no one watches or even cares about anymore. They are not a threat to anyone. This has led the entire baseball world to write off the SoCal team as a non-factor to anyone in the hunt for the pennant. The Padres, however, have not received this memo and this young, and virtually unheard of, team has really gone on a tear to prove to the world that they can compete. While they are starting to get a couple mentions here and there, most of the sports pundits are just waiting for that fateful collapse that will sink their chances of success. This fall has been predicted to come since April and it still has not occurred. So can the "Baby Pads" really pull off a run for the pennant? While it is possible and the drive is there, the ownership and management may be standing in the way. There are a couple things that can help this team of unknowns get to the biggest baseball game in the world.

Outfield -

For a team that has little pop and must manufacture runs each and every inning, defense is a key. Through most of the first half, the Padres have been able to limit the opposing teams to less than a handful of runs. It was the games where the opposing team could score more than five runs that they lost or nearly lost. If the opposition could be held to 3 or fewer, the Pads had a chance. The key to keeping the runs down on the other side of the scoreboard, they had to build a solid outfield. This outfield is still under construction, but there are a few bright spots. Defensively, the Padres lack a true center fielder. Denorfia has really shown that he may be able to handle the middle expanse with few problems, but he is still young and learning. For the Friars to really compete, they need a true centerfielder. This is not likely to happen though. With an outfield that is already overflowing and crowded, the Pads do not have any more room without packaging a trade. While most teams would jump at this, the Padres do not want to part with any of the talent they have in the outfield. Tony Gwynn Jr. is another possible center field candidate, but he is still trying to get the experience needed and his bat is just now starting to wake up. The Gwynn name is a legacy in San Diego and he is not going anywhere. The fact that there is not a lot of trade value for the junior Gwynn also handcuffs the Friars. The Hairston brothers have become a management favorite, despite the fact that Scotty is not the best of gloves in the outfield. He is also a streaky hitter that usually hangs around .250. None of these factors can really help the Padres advance past the first round of the post season. With Will Venable going to the DL, Cunningham was given a chance and may be the bat that the Padres wanted to trade for. This kid is on a tear and, while he has made a couple of mistakes in the outfield, he has shown a lot of promise and is constantly improving. Venable is another favorite that isn't likely to be traded and degrades the defensive performance of the team while only offering an average bat to the lineup. While they need an experienced and quality center fielder to hone the skills of Denorfia and Cunningham, it is not likely to happen. One of the things that would really make this team stellar would be the addition of a quality middle outfielder like Mike Cameron (unfortunately, Bud Black and Mike Cameron are not a good combination and he will not likely come back until Black is gone) to teach these two youngsters and create two of baseball's best future outfielders. Keeping Scotty or Gwynn as a backup with a bat from the bench and packaging the other with Venable in a trade to get a decent center fielder would be a big boost to their World Series hopes.

Lineup -

One thing that has really boosted this team and kept them afloat is the lineup and their ability to piece together a run. While most teams have at least two big threats that can generate power and produce runs, the Padres have a "small ball" lineup. This means that speed, strategy, and clutch knocks are the strength to this team. This is the biggest reason that when a team has more than five runs, the Pads are in trouble. There are a few things that can help this lineup. Bud Black, for some reason can't seem to keep the lineup card the same when it does work and loves to tinker with it. With the speed that several players on this team are capable of, they need to lead off with one of these. While Cabrera is in a slump, he may do a little better back in a leadoff spot again. This is where he thrived last season and if anything, he can take a pitcher into the count. He has begun to hit again and if he is back, he needs to be unleashed on the base paths. Cabrera cannot do this with someone clogging up the line in front of him. While Adrian may be the biggest bat in the lineup, he can't seem to hit in the cleanup spot and needs to be left at number three. This is the only thing that Black can get right on the card. With most of the lineup not providing punch, Adrian seems to be walked quite often. The beginning of the season saw Chase Headley hitting fourth. After Chase punished opposing pitchers for walking Adrian, it seemed like this was the perfect fit. Now the other pitchers would start to pitch to Adrian and his average and power numbers started to rise. Headley has since been shuffled around and Adrian is back to walking all the time with no threat of a clutch hit following him. The two catchers are fine and should be hitting after Headley. The addition of Cunningham and Denorfia has also given the Padres some bottom of the order lumber that can hit for average and in clutch situations. While Cabrera is in a horrible slump this year, he is still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and can't really be sacrificed. A steady lineup shift can really stabilize this team and put them back to the winning numbers they had in the beginning of the season. Here is a lineup that could really put the Padres into an unbeatable category:

1- Everth Cabrera

2- 2^nd base (Jerry Hairston or David Eckstein)

3- Adrian Gonzalez

4- Chase Headley

5- Catcher (Yorvit Torrealba or Nick Hundley)

6- Other Outfielder (Hopefully they get a new Center Fielder)

7- Aaron Cunningham

8- Chris Denorfia

9- Pitcher

Pitching -

Pitching has been the key to the Padres tear this season. All surprises have come from the mound. With the lowest team ERA and bullpen ERA in all of baseball, the fact that other teams could not score on the Padres was the true strength of the team. With a lineup that could not produce huge numbers on the scoreboard, they had to keep other teams from scoring for there to be a hope. This was going good in the beginning of the season, but things are starting to go bad. Ever since Correia's brother died, Kevin has not been the same. Last year, he could easily have been the Ace of the staff, but now, he is just not in the game as much as he should be. There is a dark cloud over Kevin and he is starting to go downhill. Garland is another pitcher that is starting to wear down a bit. The season is starting to take its toll on Garlands arm and he is slipping. Wade LeBlanc is still doing decent and he makes a good mid-rotation arm. He has his ups and downs, but he could be a great addition to the staff. The fact that LeBlanc is usually paired with aces or gets the tough luck loss combine to make his numbers look a little worse than they are. He is still a great pitcher and can only get better. Richard is a steady back end guy that is very predictable. His 3.?? ERA is usually spot on. He gives up 2-4 runs every outing. He is very capable of giving the quality start and will take his six to seven innings every outing. The true ace of the squad is Matt Latos. He is a dominant pitcher and is the heir apparent to Peavy's team. The future Ace of the squad is causing a little dissention amongst the fans though. The management is determined to shut him down periodically throughout the season and is even threatening to put him on the DL to limit his inning count. They want to limit him to 180 or less innings this season. Going into the All Star break he is 106.2 innings. This means he will need to be skipped at least four times in the second half of the season. This DL trip that is being proposed is laughable and transparent. The front office has been talking about limiting him for a while now and they did last season. The fact that he pitched 18 scoreless innings since being "injured" is laughable. Yet still, he will likely be put on the DL so they can further experiment with different position players. Like most fans, I also believe that if you have a stellar arm, use it. It would be a travesty of justice to let Latos give as much as he has this season, just to be sent back to Triple-A at the end of September. For the Padres to really make a run for the post season, they need Latos to continue pitching. He is responsible for several of the wins that the Padres have. One way they can limit him without shutting him down is to go with a six pitcher rotation. Whether they bring Chris Young back from the DL for another week or two (until he gets hurt again), call up one of their stellar arms from Double A, or trade for a good arm, they have that option. Not only will this help to rest Garland, but it will reduce the workload of Latos.

One thing is apparent; the Padres have a shot at the post season and the pennant if they play their cards right. The biggest hurdle to this is the management. The front office is not in a mode of winning the World Series. Many of the upper management, starting with Bud Black, are already content with this season by being in first at the All Star break. This is not enough and there is not enough drive in the upper echelons to make the post season. There are many things that can happen to make the Friars champions this year, but I doubt any of these steps will be taken. The front office is happy with just barely competing and making the post season is a victory to them. They have never had the drive to win it all. Bud Black's lack of desire and baseball strategy is also combining to help defeat the Padres. If the "Baby Pads" do make it anywhere this year, it will be despite Black and the upper management.

Sources:

Padres Roster

Latos May be Placed on DL

Padres Will Spend (Some) in Free Agency