Can You Pick the Next Kentucky Derby Winner?

When I was a horse crazy teenager watching horse races on TV was as close as I ever got to being around horses. Of course watching the Triple Crown events of which the Kentucky Derby is the first of the three races was the highlight of the horse races for me. I would watch the Kentucky Derby on TV and try and pick the winner like the rest of the TV viewing audience.

Since I was naive about Thoroughbred racehorses and how to accurately pick a winner I would try and pick a winner using the following methods:
The horse's color - if it was the only grey horse in the race or the only black horse it would be easier to watch during the race.
How the sports reporter would highlight the horse's history, came from out of nowhere or was imported, etcetera.
The horse's name, need I say more on that one?
The horse's bloodlines, if it had another Kentucky Derby winner in it's family tree or not.
How the horse acted while being saddled or led to the starting gate.

Needless to say those methods were simply a hit or miss when it came to picking the winner. That is truly when picking a winning horse was a real gamble.

Then came the day I became a horse owner and my whole method of looking at a horse as an athlete changed. I now saw the importance of type and build when it came to racehorses. I soon discovered that I could look at the way a horse was put together and see what equine sport the horse was best suited for. Thoroughbred racehorses, were in my mind, came in 3 distinct types. There is the long, tall and lanky built horse, which is best suited for distance races. There is the shorter (in length of the back), yet tall, more muscular built horse that is best at short fast races. Lastly there is the muscular, tall and wide built horse which is best suited for a life in the Olympic jumping world.

I found out that by looking at the build of a horse I could pick out which horse would at least finish in the top 3 places of a horserace. For the Kentucky Derby I would be looking for a horse that was a type that was a lanky looking type with muscle but not too much muscle. The Kentucky Derby is considered a midrange length of race. It is not a long distance that would need the long, tall and lanky horse or would it require a short muscular horse for a short distance. When the horses are out warming up I would look for their length of their stride. If they stretched out their legs with ease and covered a lot of ground it would be worth comparing that to the other horses. I also had to keep in mind that I was not only looking at the individual horse's build but I had to compare it to the other horses in the race.

Unfortunately the TV coverage of the Kentucky Derby does not allow a TV viewer to see all of the horses close up. The sports reporters tend to stick with the top 4-5 favorites and maybe 2-3 long shots, which leaves about 6 horses not covered at all. Looking at past videos of those horses racing might help but there is a rare occasion when the Kentucky Derby is the horse's 2nd or 3rd race of their career.

Lastly I would look at the overall health of the horse, at least what I could spot on a TV screen. I want a horse that is raring to go. A quite horse often does not make a good race horse. I look for a horse that might be having trouble breathing or limping. Usually the track stewards will pull a horse from a race if there is obviously any distress in the horse. Just because there is drug testing of the horses does not mean they cant be run while in pain. Lastly foam on a horse is a sign of a horse that is out of shape. A horse's sweat should be clear and not foam up or be white. The most common places for a horse to foam is between the back legs and often the neck.

Next time the Kentucky Derby is run, check out my tips to see if you can pick the winner based on how the horse is put together,