Can We Cheat

Some time ago, in my patrols of the Internet, I came across something interesting. It appears that the Stock Exchange has been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections. In all but four elections since the stock exchange has been in existence, it has accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential election. As I recall, the theory states that, if the Dow Jones is up from August to October before an election, then the incumbent party will win the election. This leads to an interesting thought.

Can the election be rigged by manipulating the stock exchange? This would be all but impossible if it was the stock of a single company that had to be manipulated on the exchange without inside manipulation. The lack of such inside influence is a parameter of my thinking although insider manipulation would be completely possible in a real election. I am doubtful that the manipulation of companies themselves would have the required effect on public opinion. It is the public and not the companies that the public owns that goes to the polls.

Would it be possible to gain adequate control over public perception to convince a sizeable portion of the voting public that the economy is either on the cusp of a depression or rising to new heights? Most people now live very busy lives which means that most people have very little contact with the world in which they actually live. This puts what the public sees, thereby believes, about the world in the hands of a small percentage of the general public. Reality is always secondary to perception of reality anyway. A population reacts based upon its mental model of the world around it.

It is also true that the general public has a very poor grasp of practical numbers. Just three dollars from every citizen of the United Sates of America is over a billion dollars. Public perception seems to be that this billion dollars would make every citizen independently wealthy in the event that it was distributed evenly within the population. You can take something rare and make it appear to be an epidemic by reducing it to numbers and showing every case. Even a small panic will effect the whole economy.

You cannot sink half of a ship. When part of an economy is altered, the whole system is effected. The effect may not be noticeable in some areas; however, it will be everywhere. An adequately large change in perception should be able to produce a very real current throughout an economy. Such a shift cannot be prevented from effecting the stock exchange.