Census Data Change Political Map: Will it Help Republicans Win the 2012 Presidential Election?
Will the New Census Data Affect the 2012 Presidental Election?
How this affects the Electoral Votes
Thirty-two of the 50 states will retain the same electoral votes they have had for the past decade. This means that 18 states are going to see a change in their number of electoral votes.
The Losers
New York and Ohio are the biggest losers, as they will each lose two seats in the House. The states that will lose one seat are Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
The Winners
The biggest winner of the 2010 census will be Texas, as they will gain four electoral votes. Florida is the next biggest winner with their gain of two seats. Other states that will each gain one vote are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.
Which party did the Census help?
The Republicans are the ultimate winner in the 2010 reshaping of the political map. The Southern and Western States that gained seats are almost certain to help the Republicans, as Fox News states, because they are GOP-leaning states.
How this affects the 2012 Presidential Election
This could be where the Republicans really gain victory. It's not even as much what they gain as it is what Obama loses. If one were to take the election results from the 2008 presidential race and change each state's number of electoral votes to what it will be in 2012, Obama would have lost six electoral votes.
Of the states that will be losing seats, the only state Obama lost in was Missouri. The good news for the Democrats is those six electoral votes wouldn't have even made a slight difference in the 2008 presidential election. The new census is only going to help Republicans make it a much tighter race in 2012.
Florida gains importance
With their gain of two house seats and New York's loss of two seats, Florida has tied New York for the third most electoral votes. Florida and New York's 29 electoral votes are only beat by California's 55 and Texas' 38 votes.
The campaign trail
With Arizona and Nevada both gaining electoral votes, there is now more reason for presidential candidates to campaign more in the Sun Belt. If that is the case, then there is sure to be less campaigning done in the Northeast due to many of their states losing seats.
Sources
NY Times Census Bureau
Published by Bryan Mckinley
My writing interests are all over the board including novels, scripts, novellas, short stories, articles and poetry. I'm almost done with the first draft of a romance novella and the first draft of a movie s... View profile
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2 Comments
Post a CommentThat's the RNC, of course.
I can feel the remorse of the PNC.... so sad to gain a further advantage.... After all, they are SO ridden with humility and humanity :-\