Challenges Facing the Oklahoma City Thunder

Spring means the NBA Play-offs, but for the majority of NBA teams without championship aspirations, spring means a time to find new talent to improve the team for next season. The quest for talent comes in two forms: players and coaches. Teams have two means to improve their personnel: free agency, which does not start until the summer, or the NBA Draft. Similarly, teams search in three avenues for their next coach: former coaches turned television celebrities, current assistant coaches or college coaches.

The problem with these methods is that an NBA team has very little control over its talent development process. As franchises chase players like LeBron James and Chris Bosh this summer or fawn over coaches like John Calipari or Jeff Van Gundy, there is no certainty that the players and coaches will have similar success in new situations. As Chip and Dan Heath ask in "Chasing your Next Rock Star," their May 2010 Fast Company column: "What if talent is more like an orchid, thriving in certain environments and dying in others?"

How does one explain talent? In the summer of 2008, the Philadelphia 76ers appeared to be a team on the rise. They played a tough play-off series with the Detroit Pistons, and they were led by young, emerging stars like Andre Igoudala, Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams. Everyone believed that if they could add a low-post scoring threat to complement the perimeter-oriented young stars, the 76ers would be in business. That summer, the 76ers signed Elton Brand from the Los Angeles Clippers, and the 76ers became a trendy pick to elevate their status to the upper echelon of the NBA.

Instead, the 76ers have imploded, Brand has struggled in his new setting and the 76ers are looking for their third coach in as many years. What happened? Did the coaches forget how to coach? Did Brand get significantly worse?

Oklahoma City finds itself in a similar position in 2010. OKC played the Lakers in a tough, six-game series, and its young duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook established itself as emerging superstars. Like Philadelphia, many suggest that if OKC can use its cap space to sign a low-post presence, the Thunder will emerge as the biggest threat to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference next season. Many have suggested that Toronto's Chris Bosh is the missing piece. However, is Bosh the answer or would his presence set back the Thunder, as with Brand in Philadelphia?

The NBA is a peculiar business, as it does not develop its own talent. A Major League Baseball team, for instance, can groom a new player in its minor league farm system to join the team in the following season, much like the Washington Nationals awaiting the arrival of Stephen Strasburg. Low-budget MLB teams like the Oakland A's, Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays rely heavily on their farm systems to produce talented players to re-stock the Major League franchise. As the Heath brothers write, "The only way to take control of your firm's talent pool is to create it yourself."

Oklahoma City followed this recipe when it hired 2010 Coach of the Year Scott Brooks. After dismissing P.J. Carlesimo, the Thunder retained Brooks. As far back as the 2006-07 season, the Sacramento Kings' management identified Brooks as a potential head coaching candidate during his time as an assistant. However, after firing Eric Mussleman, the Kings were reluctant to hire an assistant, and instead hired Reggie Theus and then Paul Westphal. Three years in a row, the Kings searched outside its organization for a new head coach. Mussleman had some success previously in Golden State and Theus was a Kings' legend who was successful at New Mexico State, but neither transferred that success to Sacramento. While they did not lose their coaching talent when hired in Sacramento, they were like an orchid. Hiring Brooks in 2007 after they identified his coaching talent would have saved two more years of coaching changes and instability within the franchise.

OKC learned this lesson and promoted Brooks, much like Miami, where Pat Riley identified Eric Spoelstra as a head coaching candidate and promoted him to the job despite his age and inexperience. Because he watched him develop on a day-by-day basis, he had a far greater knowledge of his potential as a head coach than he did of any other potential candidates. In a sense, he trained Speolstra for the position, creating the requisite talent pool for the next coach. Rather than relying on a one-off interview to evaluate a prospective candidate, Riley watched Spoelstra on a daily basis for almost a decade before deciding that he possessed the attributes that Riley wanted in the next Heat coach.

NBA General managers cannot make similar decisions when acquiring players. Because the NBA lacks a true minor league system, Oklahoma City has to decide whether to spend on a free agent like Bosh, sign a lesser free agent as a complimentary player to Durant, Westbrook and the others, or to rely on the draft. As Sam Presti has built the Thunder, he has resisted big deals. Instead, he used the available cap space to make minor deals to acquire pieces of the puzzle like Eric Maynor, Kurt Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha.

This off-season creates a dilemma. On paper, a starting line-up with Westbrook, James Harden, Durant, Bosh and Serge Ibaka would be as talented as any other team. However, there is the unknown issues in signing a big name free agent as a complimentary player. Will Bosh be the orchid that thrives in Toronto and wilts in Oklahoma City? Will Bosh's presence adversely effect the development of young stars like Jeff Green or Ibaka? On the other hand, how many college players are prepared to be difference makers next season, especially of those available at pick #21?

If the NBA has a true development system, an astute evaluator of talent like Presti would be able to sign a young high school player and use his minor league team to develop and prepare the player. Presti may have signed a young Blake Griffin as a high school junior or senior before he entered the national radar and used the past three years to develop his talent at the minor league level. Instead, Griffin attended the University of Oklahoma and entered the NBA Draft, where luck benefitted the Los Angeles Clippers.

With the college to the NBA model in place, NBA teams rely on college teams to develop the next generation of talent and depend on the luck of the NBA Draft Lottery to secure the necessary talent. Because teams rely on the draft process and the college development system, the process often takes time. Professional teams, owners and coaches lack patience; therefore, there is added pressure to sign a free agent rather than wait for another draft pick to develop.

OKC has done very well in the draft. In 2007, OKC drafted Durant as the #1 pick and Green at #5. In 2008, it drafted Westbrook as the #4 pick and Ibaka at #24 and acquired D.J. White, picked #29. In 2009, it drafted Harden at #3 and later acquired Maynor, who was picked #20 and Byron Mullens, who was picked #24. This season, OKC picks #21 where it could pick a player like Florida State's Solomon Alabi, Butler's Gordon Hayward, Kevin Seraphin from France, or University of Washington's Quincy Pondexter.

OKC is in the enviable position of youth, talent and inexpensive contracts. It has the resources to deal for an all-star and the cap space to sign an all-star. However, is that a better path than allowing the current roster another year to grow while adding a small piece? OKC has Westbrook and Maynor at PG; Harden and Sefolosha at SG; Durant and Green at SF; Green, Ibaka and White at PF; and Ibaka and Mullens at C.

If OKC grows impatient, Chris Bosh is the natural fit as a power forward. However, if OKC shows patience, Ibaka could become the PF/C that it needs. If Mullens fulfills his promise, or if OKC drafts another big guy like Alabi to solidify the paint against bigger teams like the Lakers, the Thunder could move forward without breaking the bank for a free agent. Instead, they could use the draft as their talent pool and continue developing in a slower, but more cost effective manner.

Talent development is tricky, which is why drafting or signing a player and hiring a coach are imperfect processes. Many factors go into the ultimate success of a pick, signing or hire, and often these factors are unpredictable. It is easy to criticize in hindsight, after seeing the results, as with the Brand signing in Philadelphia. However, it is had to learn from the mistakes and follow a well-planned process, as Presti appears to be doing in Oklahoma City. While signing a free agent would help Presti win the summer months, the slow-growth approach should have the Thunder positioned to contend for championships for the next ten years behind its coach who was promoted from being an assistant and a stable of stars plucked from the NBA Draft.

The problem, of course, with small-market teams is the threat of a star leaving for more money. The Rays face the prospect of losing stars like Carl Crawford because it cannot afford all the stars. The New Orleans Hornets have been unable to build around Chris Paul because the franchise lacks the budget to compete with the Lakers, Cavaliers or Mavericks. Oklahoma City is another small market team that may lose one of its stars sooner rather than later because these young stars will need to be paid eventually.

Fortunately, due to Presti's keen eye for talent and putting teams together, the Thunder should be okay. As the Heath brothers write: "When you own the talent factory, you've created a permanent competitive advantage. So if one of your stars leaves, you can simply wish him the best of luck on his new bus. And then grow another star to take his place." Because the NBA lacks a true developmental system, like MLB's minor leagues, OKC will be hard-pressed to grow another star. However, through his draft record, it is likely that Presti will unearth a gem in the draft who fits perfectly with the team and maintains their competitive status.

While it is not a perfect talent development process because it relies on the luck of the draft as well as the college system, teams who draft successfully develop their own talent factory. Someday, every NBA team will have its own minor league affiliate, which will put a greater emphasis on talent development at the minor league level to replace outgoing professional stars. In the meantime, the talent development process requires luck and savvy evaluation skills to introduce a new player into the team that elevates the entire team. Presti has a knack for this skill, which is why OKC is well-positioned to grow into a championship contender while other teams waste hoards of cash chasing players and coaches who end up like the orchids.