Change Vs. Experience

The Iowa caucuses on January 3^rd resulted in a victory for Barack Obama on the Democratic side and for Mike Huckabee on the Republican side. Both Obama and Huckabee represent change in the minds of many voters, as opposed to the experience of Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain, the victors in the New Hampshire primary this past Tuesday.

The results from Iowa and N.H. have left the other candidates to scramble for position on the change-experience continuum. Republican Mitt Romney, finishing second in both Iowa and N.H., has been jockeying for the change vote, portraying himself as a Washington outsider in response to McCain's claim to experience, while Huckabee compared himself favorably to Obama as a true representative of change for the Republicans in the N.H. debates prior to the nation's first primary. Democrat John Edwards, who finished slightly ahead of Clinton in Iowa but a distant third in N.H., also maintains an image of a Washington outsider for change, taking on a populist tone. Even Hillary has maintained she has been fighting for change her entire career in politics for 30 years.

How all of this will play out leading up to Super Tuesday on February 5^th remains to be seen, but it appears the theme of change will be a constant. Key primaries to follow include Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida, with caucuses in Nevada and Maine. Nineteen primaries and caucuses make up Super Tuesday which include Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho (Democrats), Illinois, Kansas (Democrats), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana (Republicans), New Jersey, New York, and Tennessee. The remaining states will hold their various primaries or caucuses with the last ones being held on June 3rd. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled for August 25th-28th in Denver, Colorado. The Republican National Convention will take place in Minneapolis, Minnesota on September 1st-4th.

The front-loading dates for presidential primaries and caucuses this year have created extraordinary compression of time and increased pressure on the candidates to appeal to the widest array of voters. The media had previously christened former First Lady Hillary Clinton as the inevitable candidate for the Democrats months ago, but after her initial loss to the Junior Senator from Illinois Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards (Kerry's 2004 running mate) in Iowa, the opinion shifted. Big media indicated all polls were pointing toward an easy victory for Barack in N.H., but instead Hillary emerged the victor. Similarly, in 2004 Howard Dean had been considered a heavy favorite by the media, but he lost to the eventual nominee John Kerry in both Iowa and N.H.

This time the race will not be so clear cut for the Democrats, or for that matter the Republicans who arguably have an even wider field of viable candidates. Former Baptist minister and former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee appealed to Christian conservative and evangelical voters in Iowa, who hold considerable sway in the Republican party in their state. However, in N.H. moderates and independents make up a significant portion of the electorate and their open system allows them to vote in either party's primary. Analysis seems to suggest that many registered independents voted in the Republican primary for well known maverick Arizona Senator John McCain, a state he won back in 2000 over Bush, while a surprising number of women and independents supported Hillary for the Democrats. Not so surprisingly on the other side, Huckabee finished third behind former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney. However, for the Democrats Obama generally has appeal among independents but it appears he was unable to secure enough votes to make up for the less than expected turnout of youth voters and college students.

The major issues that appear to be revolving around this central theme of change versus experience include Iraq, the economy, illegal immigration, and climate change. Which direction the country takes will be guided by the next President we choose in this election. A wild card contender who should not be ignored is Republican Congressman Ron Paul from Texas. He ran for President as a Libertarian in 1988 and has called for the abolition of the IRS and the Federal Reserve, as well as a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq and reducing the number of American bases in 130 countries around the world. His support has come from the youth calling for change, much like Obama, but with stark differences on economic issues. The value of the U.S. dollar is falling, and contributes to higher oil prices and other economic pressures, feeding the threat felt by many from illegal immigration or even climate change. The rising national deficit is heavily tied with the resources being expended in Iraq, maintaining bases overseas, and foreign aid which often results in blowback. Inflation is a central theme for the Ron Paul campaign and should be taken seriously as an important issue in the 2008 race for the White House. Real change does not come easily or without sacrifice.