Chicago Cubs 2008 Lineup Analysis: Soriano is Back on Top

This early on in the ever-so-long baseball season, one can hardly make any well based assumptions on what will come, who will win what, and most importantly (in an ever growing number of baseball fans) who will hit where in the lineup. Any well versed Cubs fans will know just how many different combinations of lineup cards a manager (in this case Lou Piniella) can use in a given year. In the 2007 season the Cubs used a repeated lineup a handful of times. "Sweet Lou" was constantly tinkering around with the talent he had in the clubhouse and seeing just who could fit where and be the most effective. Although this year expects to be a more consistent lineup card, we have already seen the first change: moving Alfonso Soriano from the two spot back to lead-off, his traditional role. So we, as the devoted Cubs fans (and baseball fans) we are, must ask ourselves; was this a good move, a bad move, an unnecessary move, or a move made too early?

Let's analyze Soriano to begin. We have the pros of him batting in the lead-off spot. He is always a threat to go deep, a 1-0 lead before the fans are settled is always a good threat to have on your side. He runs like the wind, and assuming he is recovered from his leg injury and avoids any new injuries, is a threat to steal 30-40 bases, another excellent trait to a lead-off hitter. He gets a ton of total bases (324 in '07), he will give you a decent average, probably somewhere between .270 and .290. (his average batting average over the past 5 years is .282) which really is not all that high for a lead-off man, but if he's blasting 35-40 home runs out of the yard, the team can live with that.

The cons of Soriano being in the lead-off spot are as follows; the man hardly ever walks (only 33 in '07) , which unless you are carrying about a .330 average or so, doesn't get the job done. Consequently, he has a fairly low on-base percentage (in '07 it was only .337). Combined with the somewhat low on-base percentage, he strikes out an alarming amount, especially for a potential lead-off hitter (160 times in '07). You want that lead-off hitter to spark the team consistently. While the early home runs provide the ultimate spark, they are far outweighed by the lead-off strikeouts, or the lead-off outs in general. Soriano is also a very streaky hitter. When he's "in the zone" there isn't a deadlier hitter in the league, when he's stone cold, I'd put most anyone up in his place.

Now that we have examined the pros and cons of such a move, let's make the decision. Personally I think he belongs there. All the pros and cons that have been listed are based off of your prototypical lead off hitter. Alfonso Soriano is anything but your typical lead off hitter. Although I hate seeing the strikeouts, I'd rather them come with no one on base. Also, the Cubs lineup has power coming from other sources, so it is not overly important to have Soriano down in the lineup when you can better utilize his speed and quickness at the top. In the end, I feel like Soriano is one of the most complete players in the game today. If his strikeout rate were to be diminished, and perhaps add just a few points to the batting average, he would be a top 5 player in the league to have.

All statistical references from baseball-reference.com.