Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter Prototype Analysis

China conducted the first test flight of its latest military aircraft, the Chengdu J-20, on January 11, 2011. This test flight sent ripples through the international defense community, as few public, non-secret sources thought the Chinese were anywhere near this stage in their stealth aircraft program. The 20-minute flight raises questions of how the Chinese moved so far so fast, and what could the J-20 be capable of.

Although the United States has enjoyed an operational monopoly on stealth technology since the 1980s, it has not been the only country engaged in developing stealth capability. The European aerospace industry opted to forgo the expense of developing stealthy fighter aircraft, building fighters (Eurofighter, Rafale) that incorporated other advanced technologies.

However, the Russians plowed ahead. The current project is the Sukhoi PAK FA, with the prototype of that fighter -- the T-50 -- having embarked on its first test flight in January 2010, a full year before the J-20 and to considerably less fanfare. The T-50's maiden flight was twice as long as that of the J-20 to boot. The Russians also had a second stealth program, the MiG Project 1.44. This was canceled in the late 1990s, but not before producing a pair of flyable prototypes. The J-20 bears more than a striking resemblance to Project 1.44 prototypes, raising the very real question of whether the Russians sold technology from their canceled stealth fighter project to the Chinese. House Armed Services Chairman Howard "Buck" McKeon even commented that "[China] built it on information that they received from Russia, from a Russian plane, that they were able to copy." Clearly the Russians at least assisted the Chinese in their stealth program, and the vaunted J-20 might prove to be a revamped copy of a fighter abandoned by the Russians a decade ago in favor of the Sukhoi PAK FA.

Another source of potential technology is the F-117 that was shot down in the war with Serbia in 1999. Croatian sources report Chinese agents scouring the countryside where that bomber crashed. The MiG 1.44 was abandoned by this time, but with their formidable talent for reverse-engineering it is plausible that the Chinese gleaned considerable materials technology from the wreckage of this F-117.

Outside, objective tests of the plane's radar signature were not allowed at the test flight, and therefore whatever is known about its stealth and other capabilities is effectively what the Chinese government tells us. This calls attention to the nature of the J-20 test flight. The stark difference between the attention garnered by the J-20's maiden flight, which coincided with the visit of US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, and the T-50 flight is noteworthy. It underscores a general theme that authoritarian regimes tend to exaggerate the success of their weapons programs as part of a policy of deterrence. The J-20 flight was as much a publicity stunt as a technical achievement.

Experts have noted that while the J-20 has definite stealth characteristics, the airframe shows substantial problems with its air intakes and air foils that probably compromise its stealth performance from certain angles. It is also unknown how far the Chinese are from developing a Low Probability of Intercept radar, which can be used without substantial fear of detection (and thus giving away the location of the fighter).

Of course, the plane shown at the test flight is a prototype and the production version will surely contain many improvements. However, that raises another point: even under normal circumstances, the time span between the first flight of a military prototype and first combat aircraft rolling off the production line is usually several years, and it may even be longer.

So the Chengdu J-20 did not come from nowhere. The fighter was almost certainly designed with Russian assistance, and probably incorporates the first-generation materials technology used in the F-117. The fighter will also appearing in the skies of East Asia in large numbers any time soon, as it probably will not enter service until the end of the decade at the earliest. While a major step forward for the China's military power and aviation industry, the aircraft is not nearly as shocking or as revolutionary as media reports might suggest.