Climate Change is Coming No Matter What We Do

To paraphrase Tip O'Neill, all global climate change is local. At least the solutions are - a global coordination of local efforts is the only way to tackle the inevitable climate-related problems and reverse the human causes.

Dennis Ojima, Ph.D, presented this sobering summary Feb. 5 at a major climate change summit at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. Ojima is a senior scholar at the Heinz Center, which studies the science of environmental policy. Ojima's specialty is global political responses to global climate change. His findings show that serious global warming is inevitable through at least the year 2100 even humans immediately and significantly reduce the pollution that causes climate change.

The latest data shows actual carbon emissions exceeding the most extreme scenarios envisioned by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading world agency on global warming. The economic collapse in 2008 led to a slight dip in consumption of oil and other resources. This resulted in a decline in carbon emissions, but the overall levels remain dangerously high, Ojima told the crowd of scientists, students and interested area residents.

Also, new numbers show that China, India and other fast-developing nations are overtaking the United States and western Europe in total emissions of the main contributors to atmospheric warming. For this reason, replacing a light bulb in California or installing solar panels in Germany won't help much without concerted effort from these populous, developing countries.

These action plans must include responses to the coming climate change. Even with the most aggressive reductions in carbon emissions, we are already committed to 1.5 degrees of warming, Ojima said. Most countries already have ambitious reduction plans, including President Barack Obama's climate change plan that cuts emissions by more than 80 percent by 2050.

Ojima's calculations show a dangerous four degrees of warming by 2100 even if all these reduction plans come to fruition. Scientists agree that sea levels already are rising and snow cover is shrinking in the northern hemisphere.

Renewable energy, conservation and nascent technologies are going to help mitigate the most disastrous consequences, Ojima said. However, he told the audience to start working on plans to respond to the coming calamities. Much of the public discussion to this point, from Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth" to stacks of climate change books, has been on reducing carbon emissions to avoid dire consequences.

Ojima is among the few prominent scientists suggesting the dire results are coming no matter what we do. Reductions are also important, he said, but meaningful reductions won't likely be seen until the next century.

In the meantime, citizens can work with industry and local leaders to develop realistic action plans to respond to a variety of climate change scenarios. They then must monitor the local climate factors and coordinate with other local groups all over the country and the world.

Ojima is hopeful these actions can happen, and the results of global climate change won't be catastrophic. He sees promising signs from Washington, D.C., too.

"The current administration is really a sea change in understanding," he said.