CNN, CBS Polls: Obama Wins Final Presidential Debate

The third and final presidential debate was held at Hofstra University in New York at 9:00 p.m. EST. CBS' Bob Schieffer was the moderator. The subject was Domestic Policy. And going in, most pundits, experts, and analysts were unanimous that the McCain campaign, being behind in all the polls by substantial numbers, would have to be more assertive, needed to speak more to the middle class, and needed to convince the remaining undecided voters, those who could still swing the election in his favor, into his group of committed voters.

It was not that Senator John McCain necessarily had to win the last debate against Senator Barack Obama. It was that he had to at least hold his own, make his case clearly, and appeal to more than just his base. John McCain's job in the last presidential debate was to simply stop the slide.

Leading Into The Final Presidential Debate

Images of angry crowds of McCain-Palin supporters have flooded America's television screens in the last couple weeks. Sarah Palin's incendiary remarks at rallies were beginning to cause concern not only among the Democrats but also among many conservatives. Senator McCain began addressing the need to oppose respectfully, which got him booed. Governor Palin kept up her attacks. But McCain did reassure his adamant backers that he would take the battle to Senator Obama. In fact, he said he would kick Obama's ass.

Senator Obama's task was to simply hold the line, not let Senator McCain rattle him, and attempt to get his ideas across to more of the undecided voters.

A CBS News/New York Times Poll released the day before the debate showed Senator Obama with a 14% lead. In the survery, 21% said that their views had shifted to view Senator McCain more unfavorably. When asked why, a quarter of the respondents say it is because of the negative turn the McCain campaign has taken of late and a quarter say it is because of his choice of Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate.

The economy remained the number one issue on the public's mind. Senator McCain's numbers decreased, according the poll, because people did not like the constant McCain attacks and the increased unfavorability of Sarah Palin.

And to make matters worse for the McCain camp, the stock market, which had rallied from 8 straight days of losses to post a record one-day rally on Monday, fell 76 points on Tuesday, then nosedived 730 points by Wednesday's close, just five hours before the debate.

Highlights From The Final Presidential Debate

By all accounts, the final presidential debate was McCain's best performance. In fact, many believed that for the first 20 to 30 minutes of the debate he either held his own or dominated. From that moment on, however, he either managed to tie Obama or lost to him

But Senator McCain came out strong and seemed to be doing what he needed to do - connect with the middle class. He did just that when he said, "Americans are hurting. They're innocent victims of greed and excess on Wall Street and in Washington." He said that homeowners should come first in this economic crisis. Obama agreed that the homeowner should come first, that the difference came in how it should be done. Obama said he disagreed with McCain's plan because "buying full price for mortgages that now are worth a lot less."

When McCain brought up "Joe the Plumber," a small businessman that Obama met in Ohio that told Obama's tax plans would be bad for his business, he told Obama that his tax plan would run the small businesses out of business. When it came Obama's turn to rebut, he said, "He has been watching ads of Senator McCain's." Obama stated that his tax plan would give 98% of small businesses the breaks they needed to survive, that "Joe the Plumber" would have been able to get the help he needed five years ago when he was starting out, not now that he's making over $250,000.

McCain pounced, saying that Obama had told "Joe," who is actually a real plumber named Joe Wurzelbacher, he wanted to "spread the wealth around."

When McCain said, "Let's not raise anybody's taxes. Okay?" Senator Obama said, "I don't mind paying a little more."

But McCain seemed to stumble when Bob Schieffer asked for specifics on what a McCain administration might cut, considering that studies had shown that neither Obama's nor McCain's budgets could stand as is. Schieffer pressed, asking him twice, before Senator McCain left generalities behind and gave a response.

Still, he rebounded well when Schieffer asked if he had a response for Obama's comments about president Bush's doubling of the national debt. McCain delivered his best and strongest line of the campaign, "Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."

But he talked of taking a "hatchet" to the budget if he had to, then taking a "scalpel" later. Senator Obama maintained that too many necessary programs would be eliminated if they treated the national budget in the manner McCain wanted. Obama said a scalpel should be used from the beginning, that all unnecessary programs should be eliminated. Obama also pressed the point that Senator McCain had supported Bush's failed economic policies.

Bob Schieffer turned the subject to the negative tone prevalent in both campaigns. Obama said McCain was using political attack adds 100% of the time. McCain denied this and brought up Congressman John Lewis' remarks comparing his campaign to the tactics of infamous segregationist Alabama governor George Wallace. Obama said that Lewis' had spoken a bit inappropriately. McCain pressed for a repudiation. Obama refused, stating that his campaign and Congressman Lewis had released statements about the inappropriateness of the comments but that the Obama brought up the verbally violent Palin rallies in which his name was associated with "terrorist" and "kill him," where Palin said absolutely nothing to quell the remarks. But, he said, the "American people are less interested in our hurt feelings during the course of the campaign than addressing the issues that matter to them so deeply."

McCain would not let the topic of Lewis go, returning to it. After Obama kept turning the topic to the economy, McCain brought up Senator Obama's relationship with William Ayers, the 60's radical that co-founded the Weather Underground domestic terrorist group, and the voter registration allegations against ACORN, an organization with ties to the Obama campaign. Obama said that Ayers was an acquaintance, that he would not be advising him in the White House. He also tied Republicans to one of the boards he and Ayers sat on together. Obama also stated that he had no control over ACORN's activities, that his ties with the organization were politically functional.

When Schieffer asked if Governor Palin was fit to be vice president. Obama sidestepped by saying that that would be up to the American people. When asked if Joe Biden was qualified, Senator McCain said Biden was "qualified in many respects," then said he was "wrong" with regard to many foreign policy issues, a subject Senator Biden is considered an expert on, and that his ideas for Iraq were "cockamamie."

Bob Schieffer then turned the topic to energy policies. After a brief statements, Senator McCain veered onto Senator Obama's opposition to a free trade agreement with Columbia. Obama stated that Columbia had human rights issues and then brought the topic back to bolstering the auto energy and producing a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Senator McCain returned to the Columbia issue and turned the topic to foreign policy.

Schieffer then brought up health care. Senator McCain accused Obama of fining "Joe the Plumber" if he did not use the health care plan assigned by an Obama administration. Obama countered by saying that "Joe" would pay a fine of "zero." McCain said, after Obama explained his health care position, "Hey, Joe, congratulations, you're rich" and repeated that he would have to pay a fine.

He said he wanted "Joe" to keep his money, to spread the wealth himself. He accused Senator Obama of wanting to take small business' money and redistribute the wealth from within the government.

On the topic of Supreme Court justices, Senator McCain said that he thought it wrong to vote for or against a nominee on ideological grounds. Obama agreed. McCain stated that Obama voted against Breyer (he meant Alito, because Breyer was nominated to the Supreme Court long before Senator Obama was in the Senate) and Roberts.

Senator McCain accused Senator Obama of voting for a bill while a senator in Illinois that would have withheld lifesaving treatment for a child born of a failed abortion. Senator Obama stated that that simply was not true. He stated, "...nobdoy's pro-abortion."

On education: Senator Obama talked about affordable education for everyone, with a $4000 tax credit per year to students in exchange for some form of community service. Senator Obama said he supported more federal assistance but continued local control of schools. Senator McCain pressed his plan for charter schools as a form of alternative schooling, a competitive choice for parents. McCain said that the public school system should be reformed.

Who Won The Final Presidential Debate?

According to CNN and CBS News, in polls taken of viewers just after the conclusion of the debate, Senator Obama won the debate handily. CBS News poll respondents placed Senator Obama at 53% and Senator McCain at 22%, with 25% thinking the debate ended in a tie. CNN's poll put Senator Obama 27 points ahead, 58% to 31%. If those numbers stand, that will have given Senator Obama an undefeated record in the debates.

On CNN's panel of analysts, only two believed McCain won the debate. Although all agreed that McCain stayed on offense, when he began attacking Senator Obama about William Ayers and ACORN, he seemed to get off track. As Senator Obama attempted to keep everything focused on the economy, Senator McCain continually veered onto other subjects.

Alex Castellanos, a Republican political advisor to several presidents, thought McCain won the debate. He cited McCain's effective points: attacking Obama's tax plans, bringing up "Joe the Plumber," and that Obama was waging "class warfare" and wanted to "spread the wealth." William Bennett, former Secretary of Education under President Ronald Reagan, thought McCain won, but was especially strong early in the debate. Bennett said that he hadn't heard so much talk about plumbers since Watergate. Leslie Sanchez, a Republican strategist, thought that McCain did well at first but lost the debate because he kept getting off topic.

Everyone on CNN's panel agreed that when McCain seemed to get angry, when he brought up the Ayers and ACORN connection, he lost ground. Most believe he lost the debate from that moment on and never recovered. In the survey taken afterward, 51% of the respondents told CNN that William Ayers did not matter at all, with only 23% saying that he mattered a great deal.

In an informal focus group in Columbus, Ohio, the 30 undecided voters split nearly evenly: 16 said that Obama had won. Of the 30, however, when asked if the debate had finally swung their vote, only three said that they had made up their minds. All three said they would vote for Senator Obama.

Senator McCain accomplished everything he needed to do in the debate -- except one thing. He did not win.

And the average American voter seems ready for the campaign to end. According to CNN's survey, 67% said there was no need for another debate, while 32% said they needed more.

What Will Senator McCain Have To Do To Win The Election?

"Joe the Plumber" became the focus of this debate. He represents middle class America. He is Everyman. This is the guy Senator McCain was attempting to connect with. Although by most accounts, it seems that he did this effectively for the most part, as Candy Crowley of CNN said, his biggest problem going forward will be to convince that the campaign is not over.

When news anchor Anderson Cooper asked David Gergen, a political analyst and former advisor to five presidents, what Senator McCain had to do to win the race, Gergen replied, "Beats the hell out of me." After the round of laughter, Gergen stated that McCain had said he was going to "whip Obama's ass" in the debate and he clearly did not do it. He said that John McCain needed to go high road in the last three weeks of the campaign to restore his honor, because win or lose, he would still be part of the government and he would not want people remembering his campaign as one of dirt and negativity. He suggested McCain hold positive rallies and talk up the economy.

Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist who worked for President Bill Clinton, said that from here on out, McCain needed to "go heroic."

And they are absolutely correct. William Bennett stated several days ago that Senator McCain's campaign did not measure up to the greatness of the man that was John McCain. With Senator McCain's campaign looking dirty and desperate, they are tending to alienate the voters he needs to swing the election his way - the undecided. CNN's survey after the debate found that 80% of viewers thought that Senator McCain spent more time attacking his opponent than did Senator Obama (7%). Obama was found more likeable (70% to 22%), better able to handle the economy (59% to 35%), better to deal with tax issues (56% to 41%), had better health care ideas (62% to 31%), and would be a better leader (56% to 39%).

Even allowing for the breakdown in respondents (40% Democrats, 30% Republicans, 30% Independents), Senator Obama clearly established himself as the winner.

This does not mean that Senator McCain cannot win the election; it simply means that, given the poll numbers, the trending toward Obama favorability, and the worsening economy being blamed primarily on the Bush administration (and, by extension, all Republicans, including Senator McCain), Senator McCain faces an extraordinarily uphill battle.

Yet, Republicans say it has been done before. Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter by double digits going into the last month of the campaign in 1980. After the one and only debate of that season, Reagan won the debate and went on to victory. That is the legend.

However, the legend does not seem to be true. Carter had a 30% approval rating going into the election. Regardless, according to the Washington Post, a review of polls by CBS News pollster Warren Mitofsky reveals that in no poll did Carter lead by more than three points. One Gallup poll prior to the election had President Carter up by 6 points. NBC-Associated Press polls, however, offset this by having Ronald Reagan in the lead going into the final weeks of the campaign.

So, Senator McCain, if he were to come back and win this election, would set an unprecedented record. But Senator Obama would have to make some unprecented and poltically catastrophic mistakes. Given his performance in Wednesday night's debate, Senator McCain's poll numbers should increase, tightening the race somewhat. Whether or not his campaign will be able to hold it is of concern. The onslaught of negative campaigning being done by the McCain campaign seems to be backfiring among the voters McCain needs to win.

So will the American people see the McCain-Palin ticket take the high road and forego the attack ads and the negative campaigning? Will they see Governor Palin stop rousing the rabble with her inflammatory remarks? Doubtful. It's a tried and true GOP method and has worked well in the past when Republican candidates have been behind.

Will the McCain campaign be fervently praying for the Bradley Effect on Election Day? Probably.

Perhaps there is a lesson everyone can take from this election: there are some established ways of doing things that need to be altered or left behind.

Sources:

CNN Television

CNNPolitics.com

CBSNews.com

LATimes.com

Associated Press

TheAtlantic.com

WashingtonPost.com