College Football Picks Against the Spread for 2009 Championship Weekend

The final week of the college football regular season is also conference championship week for four conferences. I will take a look into each of the conference championship games, two big non-championship match-ups, and give my picks against the spread and straight up on each of the games. The lines are from sbgglobal.com via the ESPN website

#16 Oregon State Beavers at #7 Oregon Ducks (-10)
The Civil War is one of the greatest rivalries in college sports. Throw in stipulations that make it a Rose Bowl qualifying game at Autzen and Oregon State's memories of 2008, and it's going to be a nuclear warfare in Oregon.

Autzen is one of college football's biggest home field advantages. In 2009, the Ducks 6-0 Autzen record indicates things have not changed. The Ducks have scored 42 points or more in seven of their last eight games and accomplished this feat against three top twenty-five teams.

When these two teams met in 2008, the Ducks ruined the Beavers chance of going to a Rose Bowl by scoring 65 against the Beavers, which was an all-time record of points scored against the Beavers. If the Beavers want revenge, they will have to win at Autzen. Fortunately, they will have Jacquizz Rodgers this time.

In a heated rivalry with so much on the line, I like a close game. I am anticipating the Ducks will defeat the Beavers in a close game.

Against the Spread: Oregon State Beavers (+10)
Straight Up: Oregon Ducks

#5 Cincinnati Bearcats at #15 Pittsburgh Panthers (-1)
After losing to the Mountaineers last week, the Panthers can still spoil the Bearcats dreams for not only a national championship, but a BCS appearance. For the Bearcats, if they can win and have losses from the Crimson Tide and Long Horns, I would expect them to qualify for the National Championship over the TCU Horned Frogs.

Dave Wannstedt versus Brian Kelly. The Panthers do lead the all-time series 7-1, but the one loss for the Panthers was last year. The Panthers are undefeated at home in 2009. I'm going with the Panthers here to ruin the Bearcats dreams in a low scoring game.

Against the Spread: Pittsburgh Panthers (-1)

#21 Houston Cougars (-2.5) at East Carolina Pirates

Playing for the CUSA Championship are the Cougars and the Pirates. The Cougars have some wins against power-six opponents for 2009, but they have also let their guard down against weaker competition. The ECU Pirates rely on their defense to win games.

The explosiveness of the Cougars offense and Case Keenum make me like the Houston Cougars in this game.

Against the Spread: Houston Cougars (-2.5)

#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers (-1)
Both of these teams come into this game after beatings from major rivals. Both teams struggled immensely against the run. Both teams rely extensively on their star halfbacks. As Georgia Tech is 15^th in total yardage and Clemson is 74^th, I am going to say that John Dwyer burns the Clemson defense and the Yellow Jackets qualify for a BCS Bowl.

Straight Up: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1)

#3 Texas Longhorns (-13.5) vs. #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers
I admit I'd like to see Texas lose just for the BCS mess it would represent. The Cornhuskers have only allowed 133 points in twelve games this season, an average of about eleven points per game. The Longhorns are stout on both sides of the football.

The Nebraska defense could make things interesting against the Longhorns. The offense will likely give the Longhorns too many opportunities and not be explosive enough to keep up with the Longhorns. I like the Longhorns, but I also like the points.

Texas versus Alabama or Texas versus Florida?

Against the Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (+13.5)
Straight Up: Texas Longhorns.

#1 Florida Gators (-5.5) vs. #2 Alabama Crimson Tide
It's seems as though everyone has talked about this match-up since the beginning of the season. It is what SEC and major college football enthusiasts have waited to see for the 2009 season.

For as much praise as the Crimson Tide receive on defense, the Gators have given up fewer points in 2009. The Gators give up fewer than ten points per game. Good thing because until recently, Tim Tebow and the Gators offense has not looked like their usual selves. The Gators have not lost since "The speech."

SEC Championship. National Championship qualification. Heisman. All these things are on the line Saturday afternoon. With such powerful defenses and great running games, the points are much too tempting to pass with Alabama. As far as straight up...I am going to go with Alabama just because I'm getting rather tired of seeing the Gators in the championship.

Of course, if the Tide win and the Longhorns lose, could the computers demand a January rematch?

Straight Up:: Alabama Crimson Tide (+5.5)

REFERENCES:
All records and stats are from espn.com, accessed December 1, 2009

College football lines are from sbgglobal.com via the ESPN website, accessed December 1, 2009.

Ralph N. Paulk, "Cincinnati's defense impresses Pitt coach Wannstadt." Pittsburgh Live.