College Football Preseason Top 25

It's that time of year again. When sports pundits from Pullman to Gainsville throw darts at the college football map and come up with their preseason Top 25 lists.

Filling out the list has gotten weird lately thanks partly to a 2007 season which produced college football's first two-loss champion (Did someone say parity?) and a seeming mediocrity pandemic among more than a handful of traditional powers.

Consider this line-up of one-time kings of college football -- Alabama, Florida State, Miami, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Washington had a combined record of 31-44 in 2007. In the entire decade of the 1990s Miami lost just 27 games, Nebraska only 16 and Florida State 13.

Things have changed.

Missouri has joined the national title banter. Schools with far more superlative hardwood history -- Kansas and Illinois -- find themselves elbowing in for their own well-deserved gridiron respect. Not to mention having to check the list up and down for ways to include Cincinnati, Rutgers and South Florida...

Who? That's right. Times have changed.

Speaking of Cincinnati, let's get on to the rankings, shall we?

No. 25 Cincinnati Bearcats

In just two seasons at Cincinnati, coach Brian Kelly has turned this perennial Big East doormat into a full-fledged Top 25 competitor with wins over three ranked teams last year and a near upset of West Virginia. The Bearcats will again be competitive in 2008.

An early road game against Oklahoma will show just what this team is made of. Don't expect an upset in Norman, but only because, after a 10-3 run in 2007, the Sooners won't be taking this opponent lightly.

Predicted finish: 10-4

No. 24 Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Wake Forest has built its recent success mainly by establishing a killer defense. The 2008 squad should be just as effective at terrorizing the ACC as it was the last two seasons when the Demon Deacons lead the conference in takeaways.

A favorable schedule (Boston College and Clemson at home) could land Wake Forest its second ACC championship in three seasons. Clemson will be tough to beat regardless of stadium. Road trips to Tallahassee and Miami could also be quite sticky. But count on another Top 25 finish for Wake.

Predicted finish: 9-4

No. 23 Oregon Ducks

If any team illustrated just how widely fortunes could swing in 2007, it had to be Oregon. Racing to an 8-1 start, a number 2 ranking and back to back wins over (eventual Pac-10 champion) USC and (then number 4) Arizona State, the Ducks' season came crashing down with a spate of quarterback injuries and three straight season-ending losses including a shutout by UCLA.

QB Justin Roper did a solid job in Oregon's pasting of South Florida in the Sun Bowl, but the quarterback position remains a question in 2008. An early departure of running back Jonathan Stewart to the NFL is also a blow. Still, a lot of talent remains and I see the Ducks being good enough for third in the PAC-10.

Predicted finish: 9-4

No. 22 Penn State Nittany Lions

81-year-old coach Joe Paterno starts his 43rd season at Penn State. And the Nittany Lions are in good shape with this old college football lion calling the shots. With a rough first half of this decade (posting four out of five losing seasons), Joe Pa answered his critics with an 11-1 campaign in 2005, followed by back to back 9 win seasons and three straight bowl victories.

Nobody can tell Paterno the game has passed him by.

Penn State is again positioned for post-season glory with a favorable nonconference schedule before the typically grueling Big 10 play. With all the heavies clustered in the middle -- Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State -- the Lions know where to focus their efforts. Look for at least one win out of those four, maybe two.

Penn State finishes 3rd or 4th in the Big 10, with at least 9 wins overall.

Predicted finish: 9-4

No. 21 Kansas Jayhawks

2007 finally saw an air of respectability brought to the Big 12 North thanks to the inspired seasons of Missouri and Kansas. The Jayhawks posted their best record to date and their third ever Top 10 finish in the AP poll. The return of Todd Reesing at quarterback and eight defensive starters will see the Jayhawks in good form again this year.

But the scheduling gods have lined up a considerably stiffer test than the one Kansas faced in 2007 with Texas and Texas Tech coming to Lawrence and the Jayhawks heading to Norman. All three Southern Division heavies were out of Kansas' rotation last year. The Jayhawks will likely win one of these. Two, if they get lucky. But a sweep just isn't going to happen.

As for the North Division race, Missouri will again be the team to beat. Lucky for Kansas they get the Tigers at home, but Missouri will be an even better team in 2008 than they were last year. Kansas will need some luck.

Between the top three southern schools and Missouri, I see a 2-2 record for the Jayhawks as a best case scenario. 1-3 is probably most likely. But 0-4 is glaringly possible. No Cinderalla season this year.

Predicted finish: 9-4

No. 20 Virginia Tech Hokies

It's been a sketchy off-season for Virginia Tech with a spate of injuries and disciplinary problems leaving gaps in the line-up. Just what kind of team will this be in 2008? It'll be hard to tell until the Hokies take on Georgia Tech at home.

But departures aside, there hasn't been a shortage of talent in Blacksburg for well over a decade, so don't expect a huge drop-off. VIrginia Tech is good enough to win the ACC Coastal Division, but repeating as all-out conference champs could be a tall order. Clemson is my odds on pick to take the conference. And Boston College will again be tough this year.

Road games against Nebraska, Florida State and Miami all in one season might have given coaches and players the chills ten years ago. This year the Hokies will serve as a barometer for those teams journies back to glory. As such, Virginia Tech will get their best shots in front of the home crowds.

Predicted finish: 10-4

No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini

Ron Zook has brought a steady influx of talent to the University of Illinois and the results finally showed in his third season with the Fighting Illini -- the pinnacle of which was a November 10th applecart turn-over of Ohio State (the Buckeyes' only regular season loss). But USC's manhandling of Illinois in the Rose Bowl reminded everybody there's still a lot of work to do.

I see 2008 as pretty much a repeat of 2007. Traveling to Columbia, Missouri to face a middle Top 10 team will be a tough way to open the season. Missouri will try to make an early statement in the opener (and might just succeed).

But Illinois will be competitive throughout the season. I expect the Illini to battle Michigan and Penn State for third place in the Big 10.

Predicted finish: 10-3

No. 18 Nebraska Cornhuskers

With a record of 5-7 last year, Nebraska is my official "dark horse" selection. Fans of the Big Red probably won't stop reeling from Bill Callahan's embarrassing swan song until well into the new season. So why are they here at number 18?

The defensive collapse of 2007 was a coaching and schematic failure not a lack of athletes. Say what you will about Callahan's gameday leadership, he and his recruiting staff put their offseasons to good use. While the defense (the worst in Nebraska football history) had its midseason meltdown, the Huskers quietly put out the 11th best offense in the country. Offensive coordinator Shawn Watson returns to call the shots in 2008, while the defensive calamaties are sure to be corrected by the hiring of former LSU defensive coordinator, Bo Pelini, as the new head coach.

With key games against Virginia Tech, Kansas and Missouri in Lincoln, I see coach Pelini's team faring pretty well. I'd count on losses in Lubbock and Norman. There's no game against Texas this year. I'm picking Husker upsets of either Kansas or Virginia Tech in Memorial Stadium and a possible second place finish in the Big 12 North.

Predicted finish: 10-3

No. 17 Michigan Wolverines

Michigan fans probably hadn't given much thought to Appalachia prior to the 2007 season. But after the stunning season opening loss to Appalachian State, the folks in Ann Arbor found themselves paying more attention to those eastern mountains than they probably ever cared to. Like the famous trail that shares the name, 2007 became an often rocky, but mostly gratifying climb to a marvelous vista in the hiring of another Appalachian school's in-demand head coach -- Rich Rodriguez.

Llyod Carr left Michigan on a high note with a 41-35 drubbing of Florida in the Citrus Bowl, giving Rodriguez plenty of momentum for his first season. But a transition year almost always comes with a few bumps. I see Michigan with three losses, a slight improvement over 2007. Beyond that, look for Rodriguez to bring Michigan back to the National Title table in short order.

Predicted finish: 10-3

No. 16 Texas Longhorns

What Texas really needs badly is another Vince Young. Since the stellar season of 2005 in which Young lead one of the top three teams of this decade to a BCS Title, the Longhorns have been woefully inconsistent, dropping 3 games in both 2006 and 2007 -- and twice to a waning Kansas State program.

The good news is that the Wildcats aren't on Texas' schedule this year. The bad news is that Kansas and Missouri are. The Longhorns will have a good shot at the North Division's newfound "bad boys", getting the tougher of the two teams (Missouri) at home. But I don't see a Texas sweep here. Chalk up at least one loss to a Northern school, plus -- with the usual headaches against division foes Oklahoma, Tech and A&M -- three losses may be considered lucky by December.

Predicted finish: 10-3

No. 15 Brigham Young Cougers

BYU is on a 10-game winning streak. And after last year's Wild West shootout of a season that left no team unscathed, that's saying a lot. Then again, TCU, UCLA and Utah (the toughest of those opponents) were not exactly a trio of slain giants. Just ask Karl Dorell who got canned as the Bruins' coach before a rematch with the Cougers in the Las Vegas Bowl.

But take nothing away from BYU, they are a talented team with 10 of 11 offensive starters returning for the 2008 campaign. And a fairly favorable schedule should keep the wins coming. The Cougers are good enough to run the table, but I'm predicting a few pitfalls. No sleeping on Washington in Seattle. Same goes for Utah in their home stadium.

Predicted finish: 11-2

No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers

After a bumpy start, the Tennessee Volunteers really started to gel by the end of last season, playing eventual national champion LSU tough in the SEC championship game and beating a formidable Wisconsin team in the Outback Bowl using a stingy defense.

The Vols defense will need to carry the team early on as the offense gets used to a brand new starting quarterback in junior, Jonathan Crompton. He won't have much time to get comfortable in the driver seat as Tennessee plays host to Florida in their usual early season face off. The Gators manhandled the Vols in last year's game. The Vol defense will make the 2008 battle much closer, even despite that Florida itself will be highly improved.

Still, don't expect Tennessee to represent the East in the SEC championship this time around. Georgia and Florida will battle for that spot in what should be the most competitive conference race in the country. Tennessee will put together a solid year, nonetheless. Look for them to make a BCS bid in 2009.

Predicted finish: 10-3

No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin fans are diligently waiting for all those pieces to finally fall into place. Last year, the Badgers had somewhat of a turnover problem. In their four losses, Wisconsin turned the ball over 9 times to their opponents' 2. In 2006 the Badgers' schedule was perceived as a little lax (no Ohio State) so, despite a 12-1 record, they were shut out of a BCS bowl nod. In 2005, it was inconsistency. Wins against Michigan and Auburn, but losses to Northwestern and Iowa.

This year, schedule strength should be no problem with a mid-season stretch of Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois. Tough enough to challenge any team's mettle. I think the Badgers go 2-2 or better against that bunch and are my pick to finish second in the Big 10. With basically a one-game nonconference schedule (vs. Fresno State), the Badgers ought to have a nice looking record when it's all said and done.

Should be enough for a BCS invite to the Rose Bowl. Where they will partake in a mismatch against USC.

Predicted finish: 11-2

No. 12 Louisiana State Tigers

It's a rebuilding year for LSU with the departure of not only half the first-string defense (including All-American standout Glenn Dorsey), but also the firey denfensive coordinator, Bo Pelini, who coached LSU to a third-place finish in overall defense each of the three years he was there.

A promotion in the staff will lend continuity to the transition, but Pelini's motivational skills could be hard to replicate.

Two losses won't cut it for a National Title this year and with an SEC schedule full of pitfalls, LSU might be lucky to make it out of 2008 with just three blemishes. They'll be in the hunt for a west division championship (along with Auburn), but, like Florida the year before, LSU will probably have to look into the future for its next BCS title bid.

Predicted finish: 10-3

No. 11 Auburn Tigers

They know how to play defense at Auburn. Potent offenses (especially intraconference ones) seem to have fits when they play the Tigers. Consider the last three seasons versus SEC titans Florida and LSU. Over the course of five games, the Gators and Tigers have only managed a combined total of 8 touchdowns versus Auburn. Auburn beat those teams three times out of five. One of those losses was came in overtime, the other was a mere 6-point deficit to the eventual national champion.

Yep. The Auburn Tigers can play defense.

It's the offense that's the problem. Enter brand-new offensive coordinator, Tony Franklin. A spread-offense guru who worked miracles at Kentucky and Troy University. It should be interesting to see what Franklin can do at a school steeped in football tradition. I'm not predicting national titles for Auburn just yet, but a stingy-as-always defense, plus a rebuilding year for LSU, should put the Tigers in the SEC Title game against Georgia.

And that's where the one little problem lies which keeps Auburn from cracking my Top 10. There's one conference opponent which doesn't seem all that phased by Auburn's D. And that's Georgia. In the same last few years in which Auburn stuffed LSU and Florida, the Bulldogs shellacked the Tigers to the tune of 112-66, hitting the endzone 14 times in just three games. Six more TDs than LSU and Florida mustered in five.

Auburn plays Georgia in the regular season, so if these two teams' paths go they way I think they will, they'll meet twice in 2008. Few teams would have very good odds of besting the Tigers twice in one season. But, based on recent history and the fact that Georgia is hitting a peak, I think that's exactly what will happen.

Predicted finish: 11-3

No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders

One starter left the Red Raider offense after 2007. One starter on an offense that finished first in the nation in passing, second in total offense and seventh in scoring.

Do you think the remaining ten starters found ways to improve in the off-season?

I'd count on it. The defenses of the Big 12 might as well prepare to get scorched right now. A six-game stretch from Nebraska on October 11 to Oklahoma on November 22 should provide an amusement-park-like thrill ride for fans. Texas and Oklahoma have the best chance to stop Texas Tech. At least once or twice per quarter.

Eastern Washington, SMU and UMASS come to Lubbock for the nonconference portion of the schedule. Viewing these games may best be left to those with morbid curiosity. The conference match-ups, on the other hand, should be fun for everyone.

Missouri did not make the rotation on this year's schedule. No doubt Tech would have liked a chance to avenge last year's turnover-laden 31-point loss. If the two teams could meet this year in Lubbock, it would have all the makings of a barn-burner. But, alas, they still might face off in the Big 12 Championship if Tech can squeak past the Sooners like last year. But that won't be easy in Norman.

Predicted finish: 11-2

No. 9 Clemson Tigers

Tommy Bowden has been trying to bring the mystique back to Death Valley for 10 years. And this season he's got his most talented team, yet. Could this finally be the year for the Tigers? The school's first ACC football championship since 1991? (That's kind of hard to believe.)

I think 2008 is Clemson's year for a conference title, but it won't be pretty. They'll slog it out against division rivals Boston College and Wake Forest and probably make it to Tampa with at least one blemish. But they'll be all the better from the wear and tear, giving Clemson the wherewithal to hand the Atlantic division this season's ACC crown.

Predicted finish: 12-2

No. 8 Arizona State Sun Devils

Dennis Erickson knows how to take a program to the top of the college football heap and keep them there. He worked magic at Washington State and Oregon State, coaching the Beavers to their best season ever in 2000. In his third stint at a PAC-10 school, the coach is off and running once again. Arizona State improved to 10-3 (the best record for ASU so far this decade) over a mediocre 7-6 record in 2006.

The three losses last year were all blow-outs, which is cause for concern, but Georgia and USC look like the only sure blemishes on the schedule this year. The Bulldogs do have to play in Tempe, but I don't think the Sun Devils have the firepower to defeat the odds-on SEC favorite. Yet.

Predicted finish: 11-2

No. 7 Missouri Tigers

Missouri should cruise through its Big 12 North schedule, getting a fight out of Kansas. Nebraska will be tougher than expected, especially in their home stadium, but the Tigers will bring too much talent and big game experience for Bo Pelini's debut squad to handle. Missouri gets its first win in Lincoln since 1978.

Games against Illinois and at Texas could derail another dream season for Mizzou, but I expect the Tigers to be undefeated when they go up against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship...

Where they will lose. Again.

Predicted finish: 12-2

No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers

From the fifth week on, the 2007 college football season was like a terrible 1980s slasher flick for teams holding the number one or two spot in the weekly AP poll. Starting with USC's fall to Stanford, the top rated teams got picked off on a week-to-week basis like so many nubile virgins at the hands of Jason Vorhees. After the Trojans went California, then South Florida, then Boston College, then Oregon, then Kansas, then LSU, Ohio State and Missouri.

In a season when pollsters would overlook two losses for the first time ever in crowning a champion, never had so many teams been in control of their own destiny and blown it. And of all those teams who flirted with greatness, perhaps none of them failed so spectacularly as West Virginia.

The Mountaineers' own horror movie would be aptly named "The Pitt and the Pendulum". After a surprising, but narrow loss to South Florida (which catapulted the Bulls into the national spotlight), West Virginia went on one of the most impressive tears of 2007, demolishing worthy opponents on the way to a 10-1 record. All they had to do was dispatch a cellar-dwelling 4-7 Pittsburgh team (on their home field no less) and they'd be off to face Ohio State in the BCS championship.

But that crazy pendulum came swinging back one last time as the Panthers held then number 2 West Virginia to just 12 first downs and less than 200 total yards of offense in a 13-9 upset.

Couple that defeat with head coach (and native West Virginian) Rich Rodriguez's sudden pre-bowl departure for the University of Michigan and Morgantown found itself at the epicenter of a horrorshow indeed.

Thanks to a 48-28 Fiesta Bowl scorching of Oklahoma, the promotion of interim coach Bill Stewart to permanent head coach gives the Mountaineer faithful cause for optimism.

But this program is at its current level mostly due to Rodriguez and, had he stayed, I'd put West Virginia in my top three national title contenders. Fiesta Bowl success aside, I think Stewart still has somewhat of a learning curve to iron out. First year coaches can produce national titles -- look at Larry Coker. And West Virginia has the talent to pull something like that off. But I'm putting the Mountaineers on my "outside shot" list of BCS title contenders.

Predicted finish: 11-2

No. 5 Florida Gators

Heisman winner Tim Tebow is back. And so are Florida's national title aspirations. The four losses in 2007 were all heartbreakingly close and at the hands of solid opponents. Chalk last year's skid up to inexperience.

This year Urban Meyer has a seasoned team brimming with talent. And they'll need both experience and skills to make it through the tough SEC east. A November 1st game against Georgia in Jacksonville will likely decide the division champion (and I'm betting the conference title to boot) with the winner setting their sights on Dolphin Stadium.

But 28 years without a national title has the Bulldogs hungry. Meanwhile the dust has barely settled on Florida's Waterford Crystal showpiece. Edge to Georgia. When the kickoff comes, the Bulldogs will want it more.

Predicted finish: 11-2

No. 4 Southern California Trojans

For the sixth straight season, USC will be the kings of the PAC-10. There seems to be no end in sight to Pete Carroll's pipeline to the best talent in country. When USC offers, kids just don't say "no".

USC is good enough to beat anybody on their schedule, including Ohio State in Columbus. But the Buckeyes are a team on a mission. Count on the Trojans' first regular season nonconference loss since Kansas State in 2002. They could run the table the rest of the way but, as Stanford showed last year, everybody guns for the men of Troy. I see two losses for USC followed by a blow-out of the Big 10 runner-up in the Rose Bowl.

Or basically a repeat of 2006 and 2007.

Predicted finish: 11-2

No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners

Other than Ohio State and Georgia, Oklahoma has the best shot of making it to the BCS championship. In fact, I can see a scenario in which all three teams are undefeated at season's end leaving one of them a bride's maid.

So why would it be Oklahoma instead of one of the other two?

Presumption of dominance. I think the Buckeyes and Bulldogs will own their opponents, save for a game or two here and there. (USC, for example, won't be owned by the Buckeyes.) But the past few seasons, the Sooners, regardless of talent level, have a propensity toward close shaves. This year could see the Big 12 the toughest it's ever been from top to bottom. The Sooners are good enough to win it all, especially with sophomore sensation Sam Bradford leading the offense. But a rash of close calls will keep Oklahoma a step behind the Big 10 and SEC champions.

Predicted finish: 13-1

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia is many people's favorite to win the uber-tough Southeastern Conference championship and once again bring the SEC to the BCS title match. And I see no reason to disagree.

The Bulldogs are on a seven-game win streak which, in last year's king-of-the-hill free-for-all of a season, is a pretty remarkable feat. They also return 15 starters, so the experience and talent is there for a one-loss or better regular season run.

Georgia gets two tough tests early in road trips to South Carolina and Arizona State. A victory in Tempe could give them bonus points in the BCS race if they stumble later in conference play.

And the conference schedule itself is deceptively favorable.

Yes, staring down the list at games against Tennessee, LSU, Florida and Auburn is no bed of roses. But they'll meet the toughest team on the schedule, Florida, on a neutral field, while the last team to beat the Bulldogs, Tennessee, travels to Athens. LSU and Auburn get Georgia in their stadiums, but LSU remains a question mark with the loss of key players and defensive coordinator. And Auburn has been manhandled by Georgia each of the last two seasons by a combined score of 82-35.

They may have to beat LSU or Auburn twice. No easy task. But circumstances have aligned nicely for Georgia in 2008.

Predicted finish: 13-1

No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes

2008 is Ohio State's year. With two straight BCS Championship appearances and a record of 33-5 over the last three season's, Jim Tressel has built an impressive consistency of excellence for the Buckeyes. Rare in this age of college football parity.

USC is obviously a huge early hurdle, but the Trojans will find a battle-tested and hungry team in Columbus come September 13. Led by 6th-year senior Todd Boeckman, the Buckeyes will have all the talent and experience they need to run the table.

But waiting for them at the end will be another squad of SEC speed demons. This time Georgia.

I see Tressel and Ohio State as the college football incarnation of the Karate Kid. The SEC being those nasty Cobra Kai boys. And the BCS Championship Arena, the wrong darn dojo.

Georgia will give it their best shot but, still stinging from those debacles at the end of 2006 and 2007, the Buckeyes will finally end the SEC's BSC Title streak with a crane kick to the head.

Chalk it up to talent, coaching, emotion and a determination to save face. 2008 is the year of the Buckeye.

Predicted finish: 13-0

For more of Mark Albracht on college football check out:

How to Calculate the Greatest College Football Team Ever.

Will Nebraska Ever Kick Ass Again?

The Top 20 College Football Teams of This Decade... So Far.