Concern Over Hospital's Ability to Handle H1N1 Patients

Hospitals only have a limited number of beds. Usually, disease outbreaks are limited in geographic area and length of outbreak. Hospitals are able to handle the influx of patients by transferring them to other area hospitals. H1N1 swine flu virus is proving to be slightly different. H1N1 swine flu is affecting patients across the United States. H1N1 swine flu virus begs the questions about whether hospitals will be able to handle the influx of H1N1 swine flu patients.

We have already seen hospitals taking precautions to stem the H1N1 swine flu virus's spread. Last week Keokuk Health Systems, in Keokuk Iowa, decided to revisit their patient visitation policy. Limiting their patient visitor policy is aimed at stemming the H1N1 swine flu virus's spread. (Second area hospital limits visits to facility, 2009) On October 27, 2009, Agnesian Healthcare announced they were also making changes to their patient visitation policy. One change is to limit patient visitors to only person's 18 years and older. Agnesian Healthcare's visitation changes are also aimed at stemming the H1N1 swine flu virus's spread.

Should efforts to stem the H1N1 swine flu virus prove to not be enough, are hospitals ability to handle the influx of patients? Several indicators to hospital's,across the United States, to be able to handle H1N1 swine flu patients is proving troublesome. RedOrbit.com reported:

"Fifteen states could run out of available hospital beds during the peak of a swine flu outbreak if 35 percent of Americans fell sick from the H1N1 virus, according to a new study released on Thursday. Twelve states could reach or exceed 75 percent of their hospital bed capacity, according to the report released by Trust for America's Health (TFAH)." (Hospitals Could Reach Capacity With H1N1 Outbreak, 2009)

These findings were part of a study done by the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The Centers for Disease Control developed a model for tracking and estimating potential H1N1 swine flu surge. Centers for Disease Control named the computer model FluSurge. FluSurge is producing some very interesting forecasts of the potential H1N1 swine flu virus surge. RedOrbit.com reported:

"Indeed, if the H1N1 virus were to effect 35 percent of Americans, the number of people who fell ill could range from a high of 12.9 million in California to a low of 186,434 in Wyoming. The number hospitalizations could range from a high of 168,025 in California to a low of 2,485 in Wyoming, according to the new report, entitled: "H1N1 Challenges Ahead".

Many states could also face bed shortages or be forced to reduce the number of non-flu related discretionary hospitalizations." (Hospitals Could Reach Capacity With H1N1 Outbreak, 2009)

These numbers are not being released to scare the general public. It does highlight potential vulnerabilities in the United States healthcare system. The numbers indicate that even a low level epidemic, that is wide spread, could disrupt the country's hospitals. Hospitals and public health agencies have been preparing for a potential pandemic, for several years. The H1N1 swine flu pandemic seems poised to test out these plans. As with any emergency, if implemented, the lessons learned will be used to strengthen the system as a whole.

References
Hospitals Could Reach Capacity With H1N1 Outbreak. October 2009. RedOrbit.com. Retrieved on October 27, 2009 from http://www.redorbit.com/news/health/1764110/hospitals_could_reach_capacity_with_h1n1_outbreak/