Confessions of an Ex-FredHead

The following is a true eye-witness account, although some names have been changed to protect the innocent.

When Fred Thompson began to drop hints to the nation that he was considering a run for the White House, I, like many others across the nation, felt interested and enlivened by his potential candidacy. I listened to his radio broadcasts, I followed his opinion writings on the Internet. I liked his sober, southern gentleman style, and I appreciated his unwavering conservatism. I joined the blog site - DraftFredThompson. I felt receptive to him as a leader because of the roles he had in the movies and television. He seemed to fill a void left by Ronald Reagan.

Fred was offering to revive the concept of Federalism, with the view that States should be more assertive and independent of the Federal Government in their individual laws. I was receptive to the idea that Washington had taken to much authority that should be in local control. It did bother me a little that this doctrine was rationalization for Fred's view that some states may recognize definitions of marriage that went beyond one man and one woman, but I was willing to overlook that policy disagreement, in favor of the prospect of more local control and fewer bureaucrats in Washington.

Steve is long time political consultant in a major Florida city. We share opinions and bounce ideas off each other. He is a professional, while I am just an amateur, a volunteer or contributor. When Fred signaled that he would like to run, and that he was forming an exploratory committee last May, Steve engaged in discussions with Fred's inner circle. Steve arranged for a Fred speech to the local Bar Association, and on other dates, private fund-raisers. Steve did this professionally, not personally endorsing Fred. I judged the intensity of the national support for Fred extraordinary. I sent a memo to Steve which was communicated to the Fred inner circle.

The gist of the memo was this: Fred should announce his candidacy in a stadium sized event on July 4th. The target crowd size should be 20,000 plus. My assessment was this, in a crowded Republican field, no candidate has yet demonstrated the force of numbers that even Barack Obama demonstrated on his announcement day. An announcement event underlined with the force of numbers, would blow out all the second and third tier candidates, and erode the weak support of Giuliani, McCain, and Romney.

I told Steve, that if Fred did not show a willingness to solidify his solidarity with the base in a major public event, then Fred is just another one of the seven dwarfs, and ultimately indistinguishable from the Republican pack.

I was disappointed by the lack of response, and I pressed Steve for any feedback on the idea. His reply, "You may have heard media reports about Fred's lack of "fire in the belly," there is a lot of truth in that. His close advisors are frustrated by his lack of action and decisiveness."

There was a lot of turmoil in the Thompson camp in the next few weeks. Fred rejected this advice, and other similar advice, preferring to go alone, campaigning his way. This "my way" strategy culminated on the night of his announcement, on the Jay Leno show. On this day, the Republican Presidential debate in New Hampshire was mostly distinguished by Fred's absence. Fred's absence guaranteed that he would not contest the state, and would have to win the nomination in big primary victories later in the year. This risky strategy would be unique, as no recent nominee has failed to campaign in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Now Fred's supporters would like to spin this situation as a new paradigm in modern campaigning. The old rules are meant to be broken by a media savvy pro who can use the Internet to communicate directly with the American People. While this may be a great script for an avatar in "Second Life," I am not persuaded that the old rules of starting early, personal contact, sincere involvement, tactical planning, strategic alliances and a defensible platform based upon a successful track record, have been repealed.

Fred's performance in the Republican debates have been met with mixed reviews. The most complimentary remarks have been that he has made no great blunders, and therefore by holding his own has met his goals. The worst critics have been content to not make an issue of his failure to exceed expectations. But huge questions now follow Fred at every appearance. Fred greatly disappointed his fans at the Florida Republican event - Presidency IV. This is a three day political schmooze-fest that is the hottest ticket of the season. Under the leadership of Governor Charlie Crist, the Republican party has grown in staff and budget. At this lavish event, attendees find plenty of testimonial dinners, back room glad-handing, gossip, intrigue, placard waving, speeches, and money. I was there, October 19, 20 and 21. The first two days were a warm-up for what the nation would see on Sunday night, a full board candidate slugfest moderated by Fox News.

But what happened on Saturday was much more instructive. Each candidate had the opportunity to pay the Republican Party of Florida $100,000 for full stage rights in front of the grassroots activists for a thirty minute presentation. The candidates who paid to play took the stage in alphabetical order:

Rudy Giuliani was enlivened by the sizable number of sign waving supporters. His campaign has 16 paid staffers in the state. They have not made a true campaign in Iowa or New Hampshire, Giuliani's gambit is to lose a few small states, win in Florida, and carry that forward to win in the rest of the Nation. Rudy's camp bent the rules slightly by bussing in a few dozen teen-agers to actively wave placards. His youth contingent, did not pay to be on premises as had each other adult "ambassador."

Rudy's speech was animated, peppered with humor and references to Ronald Reagan. He made his case that he is the man who will, control taxes and spending, defeat Islamic Fascist Terrorism, and defeat Hillary Clinton. Rudy's campaign stump speech enthusiasm appealed to the crowd. He spoke for thirty five minutes, detailing the successes of his career, and contrasting the lack of any leadership experience or successes on the party of Hillary, Obama, or John Edwards. I believe his spontaneity and passion were genuine. Mr. Giuliani wants to be President.

John McCain's speech was more sober, fewer jokes, fewer gesticulations, and fewer applause lines. John spoke from the heart and made his case that the war against terrorism is not over, and that he is the man best positioned, by training, preparation, and experience to win the war for good. John was contrite over the immigration issue, stating that he had learned his lesson that Americans want the borders secured, and he promised to do that. I counted less than twenty McCain placards, yet the audience gave him complete attention and a full hearing. But I could not shake the impression that his speech was less of a prelude and more of a denouement. He spoke for twenty five minutes. His speech was worth $100,000.

As it came time for Mitt Romney to speak, his supporters crowded in close to the stage. It was a unique moment that you only find in a campaign. Mitt Romney supporters surprised themselves with their numbers. It was as if, many fence sitters had spontaneously decided to come out of the closet, publicly wave signs and cheer, never having done so before, and in doing so discovering that there where a lot more Mitt supporters at this soiree than had first been apparent. Mitt did not come to the stage podium at first, Al Cardenas, the former long-time party chairman, testified for his accomplishments, as did Connie Mack Jr., Congressman and Grandson of the Baseball legend, and Congressman Tom Feeney, Jeb Bush's legislative protégé. The final testimonial for Mitt was spoken by his wife, Ann. Her remarks were not rehearsed, and she seemed a little loss for words, and moved to tears - in a good way. It was an interesting and tender moment, for I believe that the Florida Republican party gave Ann a campaign epiphany. All those many months on the campaign trail were beginning to pay off. Others were seeing in Mitt, what she had found out in their life together. His love for this nation, his work ethic, and his steadfast integrity.

After telling an family anecdote of how his sons presented him with a 1962 Rambler, Mitt reflected on his experience in business, in the Olympics and Massachusetts. The theme of his presentation was strength; American strength founded in the family; American economic strength competing in world markets; and American Military strength to keep the peace. Mitt wants to eliminate the death tax, and any capital gains taxes on savings. He also proposed expanding the health care savings accounts. Mitt's presentation style was somewhat reserved, but stately. Mitt's presentation lasted a little less than twenty five minutes.

The biggest question mark was now set to appear, the sound technicians cued the video monitors. The Fred Thompson presentation began with a five minute biographical of his law career, his government service, his acting roles, and his desire to seek the Presidency. The Fred Thompson supporters as judged from the sign waving count numbered a few dozen less than the Rudy supporters. And at least one hundred less than the Mitt Romney group. The crowd had thinned noticeably. His wife Jeri, at first walked by his side as Fred took the stage to speak. For a few moments, Fred played to the crowd of supporters who clapped and cheered with a noise level equal to the reception given to Mitt or Rudy. Fred began to speak thanking everyone for their accolades, "I just want every one to get to know my wife, Jeri." Fred made a broad gesture with his arm (Fred is a tall man) as if to acknowledge Jeri to the crowd so that she too could take a gracious bow. Unfortunately, she had only taken a few initial steps with him on the stage, and had left him on the stage alone, so Fred was gesturing to an imaginary wife, which was a little awkward, and a little disappointing to some, who were eager to see the prospective First Lady. Fred spoke of God, Fred spoke of winning the war in Iraq, and the perfidy of those who would attack General Petreaus. Fred emphasized that we need a workable immigration policy, and control of our borders with new technology. He also highlighted his pro-life record, and his consistent conservative ranking in the Senate. Fred asked for our support.

The Fred Thompson presentation began with a five minute biographical of his law career, his government service, his acting roles, and his desire to seek the Presidency. The Fred Thompson supporters as judged from the sign waving count numbered a few dozen less than the Rudy supporters. And at least one hundred less than the Mitt Romney group. The crowd had thinned noticeably. His wife Jeri, at first walked by his side as Fred took the stage to speak. For a few moments, Fred played to the crowd of supporters who clapped and cheered with a noise level equal to the reception given to Mitt or Rudy. Fred began to speak thanking everyone for their accolades, "I just want every one to get to know my wife, Jeri." Fred made a broad gesture with his arm (Fred is a tall man) as if to acknowledge Jeri to the crowd so that she too could take a gracious bow. Unfortunately, she had only taken a few initial steps with him on the stage, and had left him on the stage alone, so Fred was gesturing to an imaginary wife, which was a little awkward, and a little disappointing to some, who were eager to see the prospective First Lady. Fred spoke of God, Fred spoke of winning the war in Iraq, and the perfidy of those who would attack General Petreaus. Fred emphasized that we need a workable immigration policy, and control of our borders with new technology. He also highlighted his pro-life record, and his consistent conservative ranking in the Senate. Fred asked for our support.

He spoke for less than five minutes. When he left the stage, he went in the wrong direction. There was only one way out, and that was through the autograph and handshake gauntlet. Fred looked at that and thought maybe he should go out stage rear. After a few seconds, while the applause and cheers continued, he emerged, waved at the crowds, then tried stage left. That was a dead end too, because he came back out, awkwardly waved to the crowd, and walked off again, to were the security guards manned the rails, and there he left, disappointing many who wanted autographs and to press the flesh.

The failure to make a good impression was exacerbated by the quality of previous speeches given by Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney. Financial backers who had paid to place Fred Thompson in front of the Florida Republican Party were embarrassed by the brevity and lack of passion. In politics, you don't get many chances to make a good first impression. Few Republican activists will forget the Thompson fiasco, especially when married to a steady flow of news stories that also speak of Fred's "lack of fire in the belly," or laziness.

Aside from the Fred letdown, Presidency IV did give me all the information that I needed to make up my mind about who to support for President. Based upon what I witnessed, only Mitt Romney has the depth of support, the conservative positions, the level of grassroots support and the financial resources to be the next President.