It is far too easy to blame in bad times or thank in good times Wall Street, the government, or super-rich and powerful financial entities. In actual fact it is always the spending of money by the general population on consumer products and services, housing, cars, or investments that drives the economy. The core problem is that the public does not act in concert to serve its own interests but, instead, takes its cues from the external world and puts its trust in the wrong people and entities.
In other words, besides all the blame that rightfully can be heaped on many others for the current recession, it is also true that the public through its dollars drove the nation and the world into the current meltdown, mostly by using far too much borrowing. They got suckered into using easy credit. True, in many cases, they acted on incorrect and intentionally misleading information and were taken advantage of. But so much of this consumer behavior was driven by greed or stupidity. Confidence was placed in government regulation, Congress, mortgage and other financial companies, banks, and more generally in the plutocracy that runs everything that matters. We had delusional prosperity because most of the population had willingly let themselves be deluded or manipulated by the power elites running the government and the economy. In essence, consumer power was usurped or pirated by the worst people in our society.
Here is the most critical fact. Consumers control over two thirds of the economic activity of the nation. Long before the current economic meltdown I kept writing about the potential political power of consumers. To get desired government actions, millions of consumers could threaten to cut their spending in order to get actions, like stopping the Iraq war or impeaching George W. Bush. But without leadership consumers just kept borrowing and spending, maintaining the delusional prosperity that they themselves propelled. Now they must act to fix things.
Now that the economic meltdown has hit us very, very hard it is critically important for people to understand that depending on the usual power groups to turn the economy around is dumb. Thinking that President Obama, Congress and various federal agencies, in particular, will save us is continuing the delusional thinking that has been like a chronic disease.
American consumers must understand that literally within days and weeks THEY themselves could turn around the economy. I was struck by data from the Federal Reserve that there is, even after the grotesque economic meltdown, presently a historic amount of cash is in bank accounts and money market accounts, an astounding $8.85 trillion. Look at that number again. Relative to all the government bailouts and likely actions to stimulate the economy, that number is remarkable. That humongous amount of cash (not the value of homes and investments) comes to about $29,000 for every man, woman and child in the nation, or roughly $88,000 per household.
Your first thought may be "I don't have that kind of cash!" In fact, economic inequality has risen terribly in recent years, helped by various public policies, making the affluent rich and the rich super-rich (and most of the middle class poorer). This means that much of this national cash belongs to a relatively small fraction of the population, perhaps 20 to 30 million people.
No matter how much cash we have, we must put our faith in ourselves more than the government or the business and investment sectors to turn the economy around. The more cash you have, of course, the greater your potential power to push economic recovery. We often hear about consumer confidence. Whether people are in the mood to spend or whether they have become too afraid for their personal financial security, causing them to spend as little as possible.
To turn the stock market and just about every segment of the private sector around, 10 to 20 million Americans must grab their inherent consumer power and start spending and investing with gusto, from home appliances, computers, cars, clothing, furniture, new homes, travel, and so on.
The stock market would immediately start to climb up, retail stores would stop closing, the automotive sector would resume producing cars, companies would start rehiring and the news media would start pumping out good news that, in turn, would trigger still more consumer confidence and spending. Suddenly, a positive spiral of economic activity replaces the hoarding of cash that has driven the negative economic spiral.
Think of that number $8.85 trillion again. Think of it relative to the billions and trillions constantly talked about to spur economic recovery through bailouts and other government actions, all of which must somehow channel money into consumers' pockets or make credit for them more available. A modest fraction of all that cash, say a quarter, has the economic power to do more good than anything the government does. Better than all those government actions is the absolute certainty that rapid increases in consumer spending and investment would definitely drive the economy upwards. Positive consumer confidence can feed on itself psychologically, become a viral message that shoots the economy forward, reverses unemployment, makes stocks and mutual funds and, therefore, retirement accounts more valuable, and so on.
We sure could use some national leadership that motivates and inspires use of consumer power, rather than all the blabbering about what the government should or should not do. Americans have the choice to depend on politicians or to depend on themselves. Either use YOUR cash-power or remain victims of greed and corruption, as well as the inevitable incompetence of politicians and government officials. Consumer power awaits you. The nation needs it to avoid still more massive federal deficits and borrowing and inevitable tax increases. We the people must do much than vote; we must use our dollars to save our own financial health. Unless we shift our thinking and spend, we will stay in economic hell for a long time. We are the economic stimulus solution we've been waiting for.
Published by Joel Hirschhorn
Author: Delusional Democracy, Prosperity Without Pollution & Sprawl Kills. Senior official Congressional Office of Technology Assessment & National Governors Assn; full prof Univ. of Wisc. Publishing regul... View profile
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6 Comments
Post a CommentHirschhorn's claims about an "incredible overlap" between investors and consumers is meaningless, since all investors are also consumers. In fact, all living human-beings are consumers, though about 6- to 10-percent of all consumers control nearly all the known wealth. This category of consumers is known as "investors" because their income is derived primarily from ownership, not wages. The remaining 90- to 94-percent of all consumers are generally known as "workers" because their income is derived primarily from wages or salaries.
Since wages are both a cost of production and an essential factor in effective demand, the interests of investors and workers are directly opposed. Workers can strike for higher wages. But if increased wages or labor legislation begin to threaten the rate of profit, then an investment strike can cripple the entire economy until governments and nations submit to the tyranny of investors. There is no need for investors to meet on Gilligan's Island or anywhere
Hirschhorn's claims about an "incredible overlap" between investors and consumers is meaningless, since all investors are also consumers. In fact, all living human-beings are consumers, though about 6- to 10-percent of all consumers control nearly all the known wealth. This category of consumers is known as "investors" because their income is derived primarily from ownership, not wages. The remaining 90- to 94-percent of all consumers are generally known as "workers" because their income is derived primarily from wages or salaries. Since wages are both a cost of production and an essential factor in effective demand, the interests of investors and workers are directly opposed. Workers can strike for higher wages. But if increased wages or labor legislation begin to threaten the rate of profit, then an investment strike can cripple the entire economy until governments and nations submit to the tyranny of investors. There is no need for investors to meet on Gilligan's Island or anywhere
Reply to David Kendall: I have not overlooked anything. There is incredible overlap between consumers and investors, with each also being the other, to some extent. It is far more useful to think in terms of different economic strata. Yes, there is a wealthy Upper Class having most of the nation's wealth, but they are also incredible consumers and spenders; and they are sitting on enormous amounts of cash, holding back their NORMAL lavish spending, including investing.
By the way the total of all consumer debt is just under $3 trillion, compared to the nearly $9 trillion in cash in bank and money market accounts, that even many in the middle class have part of, buth they have more sound reasons to hold back their spending because of financial insecurity.
You deliberately dismiss the essential distinction between "consumers" and "investors". This is a glaring mistake, and your philosophy is dangerously misleading as a result. "Investors" have no intention of "doing anything positive to end it" until they get what they want -- dirt cheap U.S. wages, and unquestioning obedience from the new political administration. Your theories about "consumers rescuing the economy" irresponsibly overlooks these brutal implications altogether.
Reply to David Kendall:
My view is that American capitalism has failed, largely because of uncontrolled greed and totally ineffective government regulation and policy that serve the public interest.
You underestimate the tens of millions of Americans who really do have considerable wealth. There really is pent-up consumer demand. And, as to economic cycles, it is known that the truly wealthy sit on their cash, waiting to take advantage of low prices for all kinds of investments, from real estate to stocks, and in times like these they also hold back on their normal ostentious consumerism, meaning that they stop buying all the expensive jewelry, furniture, wines, clothing, etc, etc. The way I see the world it is the wealth Upper Class that are truly unpatriotic, greedy bastards that helped create our economic meltdown and then are taking advantage of it and doing nothing positive to end it.
Here is a link to a new article on this subject I just published elsewhere:
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While the January 4, 2008 Washington Post article (Bloomberg News) doesn't say anything at all about "consumers", it does say a lot about "investors" and "investment". I'm not sure where Mr. Hirschhom got his statistics regarding 20- to 30-million people, but at best this represents only 6- to 10-percent of the total U.S. population. While this seems a reasonable figure, it's also probably safe to assume that nearly all of the $8.85 trillion is controlled by a much smaller percentage -- probably 1-percent or less. Moreover, the people who control nearly all of this money are first and foremost "investors", not merely "consumers", and therein lies the root of the overall problem.
If for any reason investors do not anticipate a healthy return on investment, then they either stop investing or they "diversify". As the Bloomberg article suggests, investors tend to deliberately " hoard" their money under unfavorable conditions rather than investing in production. But outsoucing is another