Could Libya Become President Obama's Iraq?

Battle lines are being drawn deep inside Libya as growing political unrest is most certainly leading the country to civil war. The publicly delusional ramblings of the troubled country's leader have finally slid into the blatantly absurd as Moammar Gadhafi emphatically denied the unrest telling a BBC interviewer, "No demonstration at all in the streets."

Gadhafi's babblings have finally attracted the attention of NATO officials who have joined with the United States and Great Britain, as well as much of Europe, to freeze all of his family's assets hoping to essentially starve them out of power. In addition, the Obama administration has augmented military operations in the region and the president is finally calling for Gadhafi to step down.

However, Mr. Obama's words may lack the teeth to have any long-reaching effects considering the administration spent the early part of the crisis flip-flopping its position. Choking off Gadhafi's reach and creating a no-fly zone over Libyan soil might keep a disintegrating regime from striking out at foreign powers, but it will do little to protect a revolutionary citizenry.

According to USA Today, "Top members of Gadhafi's government have defected to the protest movement, including his justice minister and a slew of ambassadors around the world." If so, when the 68-year-old dictator is forced out of power, either by his own people or otherwise, there is no way to ensure that the replacement will be any better.

Even worse is the possibility that various members of Libya's significantly tribal population may have direct ties to Al Qaeda or other terrorist cells. Since Gadhafi has openly supported the efforts of these outlaws for many years there may be an entrenchment of Al Qaeda actively taking part in the overthrow of the government, waiting for their chance to seize power in a nation devoured by civil war.

Some experts suggest that, one by one, the dictatorial regimes of the Middle East may begin to fall, but bloodshed will be certain. On the other hand, these high-tech civil upheavals may only continue until one of the dictators is willing to squelch them through more violent means; as was done in Beijing, China during what has become known as the Tiananmen Square massacre.

On a warm June day in 1989 any attempt to revolutionize China was snuffed out in an instant with a singular show of military might by a government willing to demonstrate to the world that it would murder its own people in order to maintain a stifling communist dictatorship. Any attempt to protect or provide assistance to protestors on foreign soil would require ground troops - an invasion - led by either the United States or United Nations coalition forces.

America was unable to act in China due to the sheer military strength at the control of the country's leaders. Such an intervention would have certainly resulted in nuclear war and mutual annihilation. Nonetheless, just because it is possible to act, does not mean it is mandatory.

The actions of all involved over the next few weeks will be of great import to political scholars around the globe. If the president plans to continue his anti-Gadhafi rhetoric he will eventually be forced to support his strong language with a show of physical strength.

However, if the United States interferes further with the internal workings of Libya or other Arab states in the vicinity, President Obama could be looking at his own version of George W. Bush's ill-conceived invasion of Iraq. With no exit strategy, limited ground intelligence and no way to know who to hand power to once it's over, any direct American involvement is unwise.

Hopefully the president will not order the U.S. military into Libya. If he does, there is only one reason - to secure Libya's vast oil reserves. Sound familiar?

The Egyptians showed the world that if enough people want change it can happen, and without America's help. The Libyan people should have the opportunity to reclaim their country from Gadhafi, and they need to do it on their own.

Gery L. Deer is a freelance business writer and columnist from Jamestown, Ohio. Read more at www.deerinheadlines.com.