Could Ron Paul Win the 2012 Iowa Caucus?

COMMENTARY | Could Rep. Ron Paul, the other presidential candidate from Texas, actually win the Iowa caucus? A broad spectrum of political opinion suggests that there is that possibility, though the implications of such an event are unclear.

There are a number of polls that give Paul a measure of strength in Iowa. A recent Bloomberg Survey suggested a near-four-way tie between Herman Cain, Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich at 20 percent, 19 percent, 18 percent, and 17 percent. An Iowa State/Gazette/KCRG survey had Paul at 20 percent, just behind Cain's 25 percent. Also, Paul's following, while relatively small, tends to be very enthusiastic about their candidate. They would be more likely to show up on caucus night than not.

Candidates who should have broad appeal to Iowa caucusgoers, such as Rep Michele Bachmann and Gov. Rick Perry, have faltered in the polls after peaking earlier in the election cycle. The current frontrunner, Newt Gingrich, has plenty of time to falter under the withering media examination before the January 2 Caucus.

The Iowa Caucus has a tendency to inflict a surprise on a campaign. In 2008 Mike Huckabee took the most votes for the Iowa Caucus on the Republican side and a little-known United States Senator named Barack Obama took the most votes on the Democratic side, shocking the presumed front-runner, then-Senator Hillary Clinton. Even coming in a close second as Pat Robertson did in 1988 and Pat Buchanan in 1996 can have a great political impact.

There will be a lot of ink and bandwidth consumed about the presumed new front-runner for the Republican race. Can Paul sustain his lead? Can the other candidates stop Paul? His supporters will be in the seventh heaven - for about a week until the New Hampshire primary. The same people who tend to pull surprise wins in Iowa tend not to do as well in New Hampshire.

Also, part of the new attention to Ron Paul will be the same full-court media examination that Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and now Gingrich have gotten. Paul's domestic agenda, while attractive to conservatives and libertarians, will be demagogued to a certain extent. His foreign policy, though, which can best be described as isolationist will not stand up to even a cursory examination. Ironically, Paul's approach to foreign policy is to the left of Barack Obama's. The bottom line, therefore, is even if Paul were to pull an upset in Iowa, it will matter little for the long-term outcome of the nomination contest.

Sources: Bloomberg News Poll, Bloomberg, Nov 15, 2011

Cain top choice in new ISU/Gazette/KCRG Poll, but voters have not made up their minds, Iowa State University, Nov 17, 2011

Huckabee, Obama have huge night in Iowa, CNN, Jan 3, 2008

Republicans embrace Ron Paul on domestic policy, Daniel Libit, Politico, July 19, 2011

Ron Paul's Isolationism, Appeasement of Iran Makes Him Unfit for Office, Mark R. Whittington, Associated Content, August 12, 2011