Could Sarah Palin Still Get in the Race?

COMMENTARY | The campaign to get former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to change her mind and jump into the Republican presidential race is still ongoing, though without any response from the subject herself. Rhodes Cook, who writes for Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, suggests that a late entry might work.

Of course the success of a late entry into the Republican race, after a slew of filing deadlines have passed and perhaps even after a number of primary contests have occurred, would depend on what the political state of play is come, say, mid-February. In fact, the Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol calls it the "St. Valentine's Day Option." He believes that Feb. 14 is the last day that a late entrant could enter the race and reasonably be expected to do well in subsequent races.

The scenario looks something like this:

Newt Gingrich's momentum is blunted by the ongoing attacks that have been levied against him from all sides. Perhaps someone like Ron Paul or Rick Perry does unexpectedly well in Iowa and/or South Carolina. Romney stays pretty much as he is now, at about 20 percent.

So, as February dawns, there is no obvious candidate. There is Romney and three or four not-Romneys, none of whom has a commanding position. Republican voters start to get dispirited about the choices. No one seems to be a perfect fit for the presidency.

Then, from out of the blue, comes the big announcement. Sarah Palin calls a press conference at some appropriate venue and says, in effect, ya talked me into it. Game on.

The effect is electric on all sides. A surge of popular support boosts Palin to a number of wins in the later primary states. One or two of the not-Romney candidates drop out and throw their support to her, urging that their pledged delegates do likewise. By the time the Republican National Convention occurs in August, Palin has it sown up. The Obama campaign is reacting in full-fledged faux horror, as are certain inside the beltway pundits. But like Reagan in 1980, she cannot be denied. That November, the first female president of the United States is elected.

Of course a lot of things have to break a certain way for this scenario to happen, not the least of all for the lady from Wasilla to change her mind and jump in, which she has given no indication of doing. Still, stranger things have happened even in just this election cycle.

Source: 2012 Republican Race: The Field May Not Be Closed, Rhodes Cook, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, Dec 9, 2011

The GOP's Valentine's Day Option, Bill Kristol, The Weekly Standard, Dec 8, 2011