Cuba's Future after Fidel Castro

Greg Reeson
The United States Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute has published a new monograph on the likely security requirements that will be faced by Cuba once the Castro Brothers, Fidel and Raul, are gone from the scene. The monograph, titled "Security Requirements for Post-Transition Cuba," was authored by Colonel Alex Crowther of the United States Army and was released with a publication date of August 2007.

According to Colonel Crowther, the fact that both Fidel and Raul Castro are in the later years of their life means that Cuba must ready itself for the inevitable change that will accompany their passing. The change foreseen by Colonel Crowther could be either a succession to someone, or a group of individuals, associated with the current dictatorial regime, or it could be a transition to a new, possibly democratic, form of government.

No matter what type of change occurs, the monograph says, Cuba's security requirements will have to adjust. Colonel Crowther seeks to examine the future Cuban security environment and its associated challenges while making recommendations on a range of possible missions and the potential organization of Cuban security forces in the wake of the Castros' passing.

The author reiterates the overall long-range goal of the United States as a stable, democratic Cuba that has integrated itself into the worldwide market economy. As part of that stated goal, Colonel Crowther envisions the United States providing assistance to a new Cuban government by helping Cuban security forces transition to what is considered a proper role in a democratic society. Of course, the author notes, any such assistance would have to be the result of an invitation by the newly formed Cuban government. If such assistance were to be requested, Colonel Crowther in this new monograph lays out a path forward for the United States to help prepare Cuban forces in a post-Castro security environment.

This path forward includes the integration of Cuban forces into the Western Hemisphere community of militaries and ensuring their support for democracy, and establishing military subordination to elected officials and a recognition for accepted human rights.

Colonel Glenn Crowther is a research professor of National Security Studies in the Strategic Studies Institute of the United States Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania.

The complete monograph is available for download, free of charge, as an Adobe PDF file from the United States Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute web site.

Source: United States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute

Published by Greg Reeson

I am a Featured Writer for The New Media Journal and a The Veteran's Voice. I also regularly contribute to GOPUSA and The Land of the Free.  View profile

7 Comments

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  • Charles Tutt8/27/2007

    I like the tenor of this article.

    I would hope that Cuba will choose to be a Democratic Partner with us (America). I really see no reason for security concerns outside of "thugs and dictators" from our South American neighbors.

  • Anonymous8/23/2007

    It's a "private slave state"? What nonsense, it's one of the few Latin American countries which isn't a slave to the United States. The U.S. talks a lot about "freedom" and "democracy", but these are just code-words for privatization, free-market capitalism, globalization, and political subservience. Americans need to worry about their own country and what it is doing, not try to impose their way of life on countries they know nothing about.

  • LatAm8/18/2007

    'The author reiterates the overall long-range goal of the United States as a stable, democratic Cuba that has integrated itself into the worldwide market economy.'

    On the other hand, the overall long-range goal of many countries today is a stable, democratic United States that is disposed to deal with other countries other than through occupation, bombing, and threats of military force. Colonel Crowther's plans to militarize Cuba in the name of democracy cannot be reassuring for the world in light of the disaster in Iraq and the preparations for war against Iran.

  • Sandy Dunes8/18/2007

    Fidel and Raul's days as masters over their own private slave state are numbered. Cuba will be Free!

  • Perdiguiller8/18/2007

    REFLECTIONS BY THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF FIDEL CASTRO

    THE EMPIRE AND THE INDEPENDENT ISLAND

    The history of Cuba during the last 140 years is one of struggle to preserve national identity and independence, and the history of the evolution of the American empire, its constant craving to appropriate Cuba and of the horrendous methods that it uses today to hold on to world domination.

    Prominent Cuban historians have dealt in depth with these subjects in different periods and in various excellent books which deserve to be readily available to our compatriots. These reflections are addressed especially to the new generations with the aim of helping them learn about very important and decisive events in the destiny of our homeland.

    Part I: The Imposition of the Platt Amendment as an appendix to the Neocolonial Cuban Constitution of 1901.

    The "ripe fruit doctrine" was formulated in 1823 by Secretary of State and later President John Quincy Adams. The United States would inevitably

  • Perdiguiller8/18/2007

    By the way I would sent the last reflexions of Fidel that can be published as to allow the People Media's readers to have more information about the historical relations between Cuna and United States. It could help to understand why the Colonel is so interested in Cuba's future.

  • Perdiguiller 8/18/2007

    More of the same black and neocolonial propaganda . Colonel Crowthwe should learned the real facts of the Cuban struggle for independence and he will find answers on how the imperial America has nothing to offer to the Cuban people. American will never understand that the time of of the rough riders is over.


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