Dancing with the Stars: Who Won and Why

My guess was calculated by assessing potential fan base across USA. In Season Three, it wasn't surprising when Emmitt Smith won because he had a huge fan base to go with his dancing ability and engaging personality.

Updated 5/20/09

ELIMINATED Chuck Wicks (country music star of "Stealing Cinderella" fame) may have increased his fan base after going to Auburn, Alabama for the Sticks Country Music Festival with partner Julianne Hough. They performed Saturday at the festival, signed autographs and allowed photos. The following Monday night the real-life couple danced the samba together on the show and received their best score this season. Julianne has already produced two winners in Helio Castroneves and Apolo Anton Ohno.

ELIMINATED Ty Murray, the engaging bull rider, had the fan base to move on! His pro partner and newcomer to DWTS is Chelsie Hightower, fresh off her wide-appeal on So You Think You Can Dance. She has now shown her ability to choreograph and teach the eight time bull riding World Champion, who has been put back together more times than Humpty Dumpty. No wonder he can't swivel like Gilles!

Dancing with athleticism and a flare that puts the audience on its feet, also counts toward the outcome. Consider winners Kristi Yamaguchi, always a top scorer in Season 6, and Apolo Anton Ohno, who was known mostly to Olympic ice skating fans, but built momentum by sensational dancing and obvious chemistry with Season 4 hot 'n' talented pro newcomer Julianne Hough.

There's the dark, Latin-lover type with sex appeal and a foreign accent such as Helio Castroneves who was rumored to break his engagement by being smitten with Julianne. French actor Gilles Marini also is dark, has the foreign accent, dancing ability AND Cheryl Burke, who developed two previous winners. He could be in the Top Three if he can manage the fast dancing and upcoming group dancing.

Melissa Rycroft had our attention from the beginning and she has maintained it by putting on fantastic performances! She was added at the last minute when Nancy O'Dell was injured. She had practically no time to prepare, but her background as a Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader surely helped her learn the routines. In addition all women could sympathize with her after being dumped in front of the world by Jason Mesnick on "The Bachelor". Partner Tony Dovolani is purported to be thrilled that he has a potential winner for a partner and his choreography is a standout. The pair earned the top score of 29 points for their Argentine Tango.

Shawn Johnson and her partner Mark Ballas earned 28 points for an applauded Cha Cha. As an Olympic Gold Medalist Shawn has the moves but she seems so young and innocent for some of the dancing implications. However, she's a performer, highly competitive, so she'll probably make it to the finals.

Bruno Tonioli says the top four are: Shawn, Gilles, Melissa and Lil' Kim. He says it all comes down to so many things: a couple could have the wrong choreography; they could be nervous. It really will come down to what they do on a given night; anything could happen. Every one of them has a strong chance." Quote from Sara Hammel at tvwatch.people.com

I wrote much of this before the Week 8 show but Bruno is absolutely right; anything can happen and did.

Melissa Rycroft, who was injured with a hairline fracture of the ribs, stayed in the competition by the votes of her fans. Lil' Kim was eliminated because even though she was probably the best dancer at the beginning of the show, she doesn't have wide mass appeal.

So who will win? Whoever has the charisma, choreography, performance and widest fan base.

Final Note: I gave my five votes to Shawn. Her Olympic achievements gave her a wide fan base; her dancing skill level seemed to ramp up right before our eyes. Congratulations to the youngest winner of Dancing with the Stars.