Democrats in New Hampshire

In 1988, New Hampshire Governor John Sununu stated, "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents." There was a lot of political rivalry then and the rivalry continues today.

The state of New Hampshire is required by state law to hold its primary election at least one week before any other state's primary. For that reason, at the time this article is being written, the date for the New Hampshire primary is still not set in stone. Iowa had traditionally held it's caucus on January 14 and New Hampshire's primary had been held in March. For some time, there has been a move, especially among Democrats to move up the primaries in other states. This would shift the power to larger states instead of the relatively small, white, homogeneous, rural states, according to Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. Sabato also thinks that the earlier dates will benefit the candidates who are already more successful because of their deep financial pockets. This would cause candidates with less financial resources to compete in numerous other states at the same time. February 5 is the earliest date allowed by the Democratic Party without a special exception, however, several states have moved to advance the date of their contests.

As of Oct 26, the chairman of the Iowa Democratic party is recommending that Iowa hold it's caucus on Jan 3, the same date as Iowa Republicans are set to caucus. This will be the earliest date in history. Only after the Iowa date is confirmed will New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner set the state's primary date. He is considering January 8, but has also stated that he could move the date to the second week in December.

Since 1952, the New Hampshire primary has been the contest that determined which candidates would drop out of the race and which ones would move to the top. Occasionally, a lesser known, under-funded candidate has been successful in the New Hampshire primary and sprinted to the front of the race. New Hampshire law states that independents can also vote in either party primary. However, it is not an open primary state. People who are registered as either Democrat or Republican cannot vote in the other party's primary. A caucus is a less binding contest and measures the votes through the precinct delegate. A primary counts the votes each candidate receives directly.

The persons who have officially declared themselves as Democratic Presidential candidates as of October 26, are: Joseph R. Biden Jr., Hillary Rodham Clinton, Christopher J. Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis J. Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson. The two Al's, Gore and Sharpton, are also thought to be considering the candidacy, but have not declared as of now.

The Rasmussen Reports tracking poll states that as of October 26, Clinton still has 46% of the support of those most likely to vote in the Democratic primary and a significant lead over Barack Obama's 18%. The poll places John Edwards at 14%, Bill Richards at 4% and all other at 3% or less. The Rasmussen web site states that they release new poll data each weekend. On October 23, Rasmussen reported that 50% of Democrats thought that Clinton would win if she was nominated, and a Zogby poll on October 24 states that Obama is trailing Clinton in the New Hampshire polls by 20% with Clinton at 40% and Obama at 20%.

A new poll just released by the New Hampshire Saint Anselm College Institute of Politics agrees showing Hillary Clinton to be at 43% to Barack Obama's 22% in New Hampshire. According to James Pindell of boston.com online news, that same poll placed John Edwards at 14 %, Bill Richardson at 6%, Dennis Kucinich at 3 %, and Chris Dodd at 1%.

At this point, Hillary Clinton is everybody's pick to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary. However, with poll updates coming out each week and the looming contests of Iowa and New Hampshire, only one thing is for sure. Once the Iowa and New Hampshire contests are completed, there will be fewer Democrat candidates for party faithfuls and independents to choose from and the 2008 Presidential Election will be a lot closer to it's conclusion.

Sources used in this article: www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
http://www.answers.com/wikipedia%20new%20hampshire%20primary
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/2008_democratic_presidential_primary
http://www.anselm.edu/nhiop/news+and+events/news/poll07.htm
http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/primarysource/2007/10/poll_romney_cli.html
www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=15861
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1376
www.nytimes.com/2007/10/26/us/politics/26iowa.html