Denver Broncos NFL Draft

If you are a football fan, you know that the draft is an extremely important event. A good draft will help your team succeed on the field and hopefully lead to that elusive championship. What is also true with the draft is the massive amount of speculation that goes along with it each year. As the teams are drafting, analysts will break down the picks and whether or not the team "hit" with that certain pick or if they are "reaching." I find this activity hilarious since no one knows how well a player is going to pan out. In fact, a lot of people make the argument that you wait at least 3 years, with some places like Football Outsiders going back 6 years to evaluate how good a team did in the draft.

Today however, we are going to look back not at just one year, but 26 years of Denver Broncos drafting. A team can have a bad year or a really good year, but by looking at the long-term trends, we can see if a team consistantly does well in the drafts or not. Why 26 years? In 1995, Mike Shannahan made his first selections in the draft and will mark his 14th year at the helm this weekend. While no coach has lasted that long at the helm in Denver, we will look at some of the successful picks that Denver made in the 13 yeas before the Shannahan era. Note: All stats have been pulled from the NFL's official website unless specifically noted.

I was thinking of breaking down each year per person, but that would turn into a master's thesis paper by the time we got done. What I will do though is point out the successes and failures over the span of two to three years.

2007 to 2005 -- While it may be a little early to see if 2007 was a success, we do see a trend over the past three years: Success! Out of the 17 picks that Denver has taken over the past three years Denver has: Their starting QB, their number 1 receiver and Tight End, a good portion of their Defensive line, three solid Cornerbacks (one who has passed away tragically) and three starting quality offensive lineman. Really, they only missed on four players: a return specialist, who wasn't that special, a center who was let go, a troubled RB and a kicker. The average draft position taken by those picks was 167th, which equates roughly to a middle 5th round pick.

Those three years have clearly been good years of drafting for the Broncos. They have rejuvinated their aging Defensive line and have solid backups in their defensive backs and starting offensive weapons.

2004 to 2002 -- If only these three years would have been as good to the Broncos as the previous three. While there are some definate wins in these drafts, overall, Denver didn't fair as well as they have recently.

Winners in this draft include D.J. Williams, a force at Linebacker, who has been forced to play all three positions and has done so well and Clinton Portis, who ran for over 3,000 years and 29 TD's in his first two years as a Bronco before he was traded for Champ Bailey, a shut-down franchise cornerback. Unfortunately, the rest of the draft was a mixed bag. While they did get some quality running from Tatum Bell, who ran for over 2,000 yards over a two years span for an almost 5 yard average, he was traded to Detroit following the 2006 season and over 3,000 yards and 12 TD's over 4 years from Ashley Lelie before he was traded to Atlanta, most other players who are still around are mainly back-ups.

The busts clearly show in how many of these players are OOF (Out Of Football). Out of the 28 players selected in these three drafts (an average of over 9 picks per draft) 19 of them are OOF! The other 5 that have not been mentioned are mainly back-ups. So, only two stars, two 2nd-tier players and five backups with 28 picks is not a good draft. That works out to a percentage of impact or starting players at 14% (with a 32% rate if we say a back-up is a success). From 2005 to 2006, 9 out of the13 players selected has been an impact player, a 69% success rate.

2001 to 1999 -- While this three year span wasn't nearly as bad as the 2002 to 2004 run, it is also not as good as the 2005 to 2007 run. Key successes include Reggie Hayward, a DE who had 19 sacks over two years before requiring way too much money; Ben Hamilton, a key starter on the Offensive Line; Ian Gold who is a star linebacker; Cooper Carlisle, another three-year starter on the offensive line; Mike Anderson, who was the Rookie of the Year in 2000; Al Wilson, the heart and soul of the Denver Defense and perenial all-pro until a neck injury put him out of football along with other key players over the years.

However, there were some key misses in this group as well. Only one players from their 2001 selections was truly a bust, with other players either still in the league as back-ups or starters. In 2000, some players didn't work out in Denver, but there are quite a few who are still playing and starting for other teams. However, out of the 10 players selected in 2000, five of them are already out of football. Out of the Broncos 12! picks in 1999, five of them are also out of football, with the rest either already mentioned or playing key back-up or starting roles for other teams.

Out of the 28 picks in these three drafts, 11 are already out of football and only 8 being either impact players or solid starters. A success rate of 29%, which again, isn't as bad as the 2002 to 2004 stretch, but not as good as the most recent years.

1998 to 1995 -- In this four year stretch, there are some great finds and some collosall failures. For successes there is Trevor Pryce, an all-pro lineman; Dan Neil, a key offensive lineman; John Mobley, an all-pro who had to retire early because of a neck injury; and Terrell Davis, a Super Bowl and NFL MVP and 2000 yard rusher.

Unfortunately, there were also some bad picks (Marcus Nash I ask you as their 1st round pick in 1998). Out of the 29 players selected in this bunch 13 lasted less than five years in the league, with some never making it. 10 of the players either became solid starters for a time or impact players. This success rate of 35% is again better than the 1999 to 2001 and the 2002 to 2004 stretch.

Conclusions of Shannahan Era -- Out of the picks that Shannahan has made (102) he has a success rate of finding either quality starters or impact players at 30%. So, a third of your draft is either going to be become a solid starter or an impact player. I really think that is a good average when you consider how much of a crap-shoot that the draft really is. Also, it looks like the Broncos best years are when they have fewer picks. When they have had a ton of picks, they seem to waste them on high-risk players that might turn into stars instead of solid players.

Pre-Shannahan Era -- Before Shannahan took over as the coach of the Broncos, Denver really did not do that well in the draft. While finding some key players and potentially future Hall of Famers (and some that SHOULD be in the Hall of Fame!) they are few and far between. Their successes include: Keith Burns who is a Special teams star (7th round 94) and Tom Nalen, who should be a HOF candidate (7th round 94). Jason Elam was drafted in 1993, Shannon Sharpe was taken in the 7th round in 1990 and the only successful number 1 pick was Steve Atwater who was taken in 1989. Tyrone Braxton was a steal taken in the 12th round in 1987 who became a key starter on the Broncos Super Bowl wins, Simon Fletcher was a monster for some years, and Karl Mecklenburg was another find in the 1983 draft in the 12th round. He played for years going to 6 pro-bowls, totalling 79 sacks, and over 1100 tackles.

However, there are also a lot of busts in those years and few number 1 or number 2 round picks that panned out.

Overall, it looks like Shannahan can do well in drafts if they don't gamble too much and focus on a fewer picks instead of stock-pilling them and hoping you find a diamond in the rough in later rounds. That is what they have done recently, and hopefully they can keep doing it. The draft is the best way to build a team for success, and if history is any indication, the 2002 to 2004 years hurt the Broncos the past two years a great deal (with their 16-16 record) but they should improve greatly over the next couple of years.