Derek Jeter and Pete Rose

As spring training opened a year ago, the shine emanating from the shortstop hole in Yankees camp had never been so bright. Not only had New York set the baseball cosmos upright by finally winning the World Series after a ten-year drought, but Derek Jeter had recorded a remarkable rebound, performing at levels he hadn't reached since his early thirties. Having seemingly forestalled the decline phase of his career and returned to an upward trajectory, Jeter was inspiring all kinds of bold predictions. As a lifetime fan of the Cincinnati Reds and cult follower of Peter Edward Rose, the prognostication that gut-punched me was the notion that Jeter was a lock to become the new all-time hit king. So, how do things look on that front now?

Well, the Yanks didn't quite fulfill their mandate of taking down the other 29 teams last year, bowing out in the first round of the playoffs at the hands of the *gasp* Texas Rangers! Along the way to October, Jeter showed a steep decline in his batting line, a fact represented well by a one-year OPS drop from .871 to .710. A big chunk of that deflation came from a 64-point drop in his batting average, which didn't do a lot for his hit total (he had 179 last year). It now seems likely that 2009 was the anomaly in an otherwise steady, though not catastrophic, career tail-off. Jeter followed up his weak regular-season showing with a bitter contract dispute that saw him settle on a four-year, $56-million contract from the Yankees, when there were plenty of rumblings about his wanting another long-term blockbuster.

So, here is Jeter at the beginning of his age-37 season, having lost face and the late-career momentum that he built two years ago. He is sitting on 2926 hits, exactly 1330 behind Rose. Jeter has just those four years on his current contract, and unless he finds a Bondsian fountain of youth, it's hard to see him getting another deal of that magnitude or length. If he plays five more years, he has no chance at Rose. If he becomes Jamie Moyer or Julio Franco and plays until he's 50, I suppose it's possible that the new leader board will read JeterRoseCobb, but I'm not too worried.

Maybe when Jeter retires, Pete can crack open a bottle of champagne, a la the 1972 Dolphins. It may be that no one notices, though. By that time, Alex Rodriguez will be closing in on Barry Bonds' home run record, and Albert Pujols will be gearing up for his run on A-Rod. All in Yankee pinstripes, of course.