Did Palin Mean She Was Not Running? Is She Preparing Supporters for a Letdown?

ANALYSIS | It appeared that former Alaska governor and current tell-all target Sarah Palin was telling her supporters and well-wishers that she was not running for president without actually saying that she wasn't going to run for president. In a appearance on Fox News' "On the Record with Greta van Susteren" on Tuesday evening, Palin posited that she might do the political arena more good by sitting out the 2012 presidential race. Although she said nothing definitive and has stated she would announce her intentions before the end of September, the former governor did seem preoccupied with giving the impression that she is leaning toward not running.

"Somebody like me - is a title and is a campaign too shackling?" Palin asked van Susteren rhetorically. "Does that prohibit me from being out there, out of a box, not allowing handlers to shape me and to force my message to be what donors or what contributors or what political pundits want it to be? Does a title take away my freedom to call it like I see it and to affect positive change that we need in this country? That's the biggest contemplation piece in my process."

It would seem that she was making the argument that getting into the 2012 Republican presidential race would be restrictive and perhaps incapacitate her ability to "affect positive change." She had noted the last time she had appeared on van Susteren's show that she was rather enjoying playing sort of a directorial role in Republican politics by commenting on what the candidates should be addressing.

Palin's remarks came just hours after an article in the New York Times suggested that the failed 2008 vice presidential candidate was perhaps readying an announcement that would disappoint her followers. It was noted that Palin's Facebook and Twitter accounts had been silent for 10 days and that there had been no recent updates on her web site. She had made no statements nor had she been on Fox News, where she is a paid political analyst, in days (not since before the Fox News/Google debate).

But the imminent decision of not running for president, if that is what the former governor so chooses, might come from more practical reasons than what sounds more like pride-based rationalization. Polls indicate that Palin's ability to win a sustained campaign would be marginal at best. The latest CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated that Palin only pulled in 7 percent support among Republican voters, down from 15 percent just last month. And although a McClatchy/Marist poll released on September 20 indicated she leads President Obama among Independent voters and only trails him by five percentage points in a head-to-head competition, 72 percent of Republican respondents said they would rather Palin did not enter the 2012 presidential race. A Fox News poll released earlier in the month showed comparable numbers .

Still, nothing is ever too certain in politics and Palin just might decide to run for office, but it is looking more and more as if Karl Rove will ultimately be proven wrong in his August prediction that she would run.