Does Ron Paul Have a Chance?

If you are stuck outside in 10 inches of snow, and you are peeking in the windows of a beautiful house full of well-dressed people, and those people tell you that the only way they'll let you in is if you vow to adhere to their beliefs and ideals, the last thing you want to do is throw a rock through their patio door.

Ron Paul is that guy, shivering on the doorstep, looking in at the power brokers in the Republican Party, holding a stone in his hand, ready to give it a heave.

He certainly is not a distinguished member of the Republican establishment. He has always been on the outside of that block party looking in. Sure, he has some impressive GOP credentials. He was one of the first to support Ronald Reagan for President, even doing so in 1976 when Reagan lost out to Gerald Ford in the primary. He has spent 17 years in the House of Representatives as a champion of reduced government. He is one of a very, very small number of Congressmen who can honestly say that he has never voted for a tax increase in any form. And he has long been an outspoken opponent of abortion.

However, that stone-throwing habit of his has been around for a while, and he has never been afraid to hit members of his own party. He has often slammed Republican heroes Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush for their spending and large deficits. He has criticized those two presidents for using military force without a declaration of war from Congress as spelled out in the Constitution. He is the only Republican candidate for president in 2008 that voted against the Iraq War Resolution in 2002.

These things make him an outsider, or a maverick, in political terms. And when it comes to the Presidency, outsiders simply do not win.

Think back to the last time we actually had a number of candidates vying for the Republican nomination in a Presidential election. In 2000, John McCain was the outsider, the maverick, running against the establishment. He drew heavy support from moderates and independents, and was lauded for his honesty and courage to stand up for his beliefs. In short, he was Ron Paul before there was Ron Paul.

Where did that get John McCain in 2000? It got him a trip back to the Senate. After shocking the world by winning the New Hampshire primary, McCain became the main opponent of his own party. The Republican establishment threw its full weight behind George W. Bush, and against McCain, until they buried the maverick.

Flip the page to the 2004 election, and take a look at the Democratic primary race. At around this time in late 2003, there was one Democratic candidate that was amazing people with his grassroots support and his impressive fundraising results. That candidate was Howard Dean.

How does that relate to Ron Paul? Consider this: Almost all of Paul's donations have come from individuals, which is amazing for any Presidential candidate, but particularly a Republican. His fundraising efforts are almost entirely made online, and he now boasts the largest one-day take in history at $6.4 million (on December 16, 2007). He has even out raised the heavyweights in his party over the past few months.

However, reminding people of Howard Dean is probably not a good omen for the Ron Paul campaign. Unlike Paul, Dean actually had a large lead in the polls at the peak of his success. Then, when the glow of being a maverick wore off and the charge of being "unelectable" sunk in, and the party establishment went to work against him, he fell off the map. In a hurry.

Despite his grassroots and fundraising successes, Paul still hovers in the single digits in national polls. In the critical early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, he stands at about 6% in each - well below the frontrunners - according to RealClearPolitics.com. So he hasn't even scared the Republican establishment yet. In the immortal words of John Paul Jones, they "have not yet begun to fight".

The bottom line: the establishment always wins. Whichever candidate best tows the party line, and combines that with enough charisma to make people think they can actually win the general election, will get the nomination.

One saving grace for the Paul campaign could be this: there is no clear candidate, in 2008, who actually represents the GOP establishment. Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney are both desperately trying to woo conservatives who feel they are too liberal; John McCain is a has-been at a time when voters want a fresh face; Fred Thompson has squandered a once-promising campaign with repeated missteps.

Can you say Mike Huckabee?

Regardless, one thing is certain: it is not Ron Paul. It looks like Dr. Paul, along with his millions of dollars and libertarian supporters, is going to be stuck out in the cold for a long, long time.