Economic Determinants of a Society

Predatory View of the State- focuses on the potential conflicts that exist between citizen and state. States Emerge as an unintended consequence of the strategies employed by actors like lords and kings to seize and maintain - hold power

Modernization Theory - argues that all societies pass through the same historical stages of economic development

TRADITIONAL SOCIETY

1. Large agriculture

2. Small industry

3. Small service

4. Dictatorship

MODERN SOCIETY

1. Small agriculture

2. Large industry

3. Large service

4. Democracy

GDP per capita calculated in 1985 PPP United States $

Just a measure of a countries wealth per person i.e. GDP divided by the size of the population

- Normally measured in each country's own currency.

- Pounds in UK, Pesos in Mexico

Purchasing Power Parity

Standard method employed by economists and political scientists to transform each country's GDP per capita into the same currency

- Calculates the price of a particular bundle of goods in a particular country using each countries local currency

- Exp. Big Mac Index popularized by the Economist.

- Comparing goods in each country to the US

Modernization Theory

- Increases in wealth promote both the emergence and the survival of democracy

- Transition to democracy increases with wealth (blue dotted line in the left panel slopes up)

- Increase wealth increases the stability of democracy but reduces the stability of dictatorships

Survival Story

- Increasing wealth promotes the survival of democracy but does not affect whether a country becomes a democracy in the first place

- Point of view from a person already in a democracy

- Probability that a country will experience any kinds of regime transition declines with increased wealth

Adam Przeworski

- Increased wealth helps democracy's survive

- Increased wealth does not help countries become democratic in the first place

- Wealth helps democracy survive

- Def. of Democracy: expect a minimal amount of consumption & a system where you might win or lose everything

- Switching to a democracy is more of a gamble

Democracy

- Citizens normally guaranteed some minimal standard of living through something akin to welfare state

- On average will be richer than dictatorships

- Not be compatible with all cultures

Dictatorship

- Citizens are likely to do extremely well if they are part of the dictator's circle but extremely poorer if they are not

- World of extremes

- Probability of being in the circle is very small

Wealth and Democracy

Positive

Modernization Theory

1. prediction that wealth promotes both the emergence and survival of democracy

Survival Story

1. Where wealth has no effect on the emergence of democracy but does help democracy to survive once it is established

Boix & Stokes

- Summarize implications of the MT and the Survival Story by plotting how each story expects the probabilities of a transition to democracy and of a transition to dictatorship to change with increasing wealth

- In their graph both predict that the probability of a transition to dictatorship decreases as wealth increases (red solid lines both panels slope down)

Modernization Theory and Survival Story

1. Democracy is more common in rich countries than poor countries

2. Transitions to dictatorship become less likely as wealth increases

Modernization Theory

Survival Theory

3a. Transitions to democracy become more likely as wealth increases

3b. Regime Transitions may or may not become less likely as countries become wealthier

3b. Transitions to democracy are unaffected by increases in wealth

4b. Regime transitions become less likely as countries become wealthier

Two critical implications that allow us to distinguish between MT and Survival Theoty

1. Frequency of regime transitions in general

2. Effect of increased wealth on transitions to democracy in particular

Poor Countries

More poor countries mean that in the world will mean that the raw number of transitions in poor countries will be larger than that in rich countries

- Evidence is not sufficient to show that regime transitions become less likely with increase in wealth as the survival story predicts

Wealth Level Pr (Regime Transition /Wealth Level) =

Number of Transitions to Democracy or Dictatorship

Number of Country in Years

Emergence and Survival Story

1. Democracy is more common in rich countries than poor countries - YES

2. Transitions to dictatorships become less likely as wealth increases - YES

3. Strong correlation between wealth and democracy

4. See whether it has more empirical support you have to look at whether it increases in wealth correlated with transitions to democracy

Emergence Story

Survival Stoary

3a. Transitions to democracy become more likely as wealth increases - YES

4a. Regime transitions may or may not become rarer as countries become wealthier - YES

3b. Transitions to democracy do not become more likely as wealth increases- NO

4b. Regime Transitions will become rarer as countries become wealthier - NO

Variant of the Modernization Theory

- Its not wealth per se that encourages democracy but rather changes in the socio-economic structure of a country that accompany economic development

- Incorporates the Predatory View of the state and

Absolute Number

Probability of Transition

Ross

- "Does oil hinder Democracy"

- Using Polity

- Hypothesis: more oil reliant countries have lower levels of democracies

- Oil hinders democracy everywhere except the Middle East

- Negative Coefficient

Quasi-rent

Difference between an assets value and its short run opportunity cost

Democracy

- Most economic explanations for democracy can be linked to a paradigm - a family of explanations called the Modernization theory

- Originally developed by economists and economic historians - now taken on by Seymour Marin Lipset

Przeworski

- highlights countries will become democratic as they develop democratically

Lipset

- argues that democracy will be more likely to survive in economically developed countirs "the more well to do a nation, the greater the chances that will sustain democracy"

a. Post WWII - Economic Historians Roscow and Gerschenkron believed that countries in Latin America, Asia, and Africa's in the 1950 and 1960 were 'primitive' they were at an earlier stage in the linear historical process of development than more developed countries and would eventually develop - mature

i. Primitive & Immature societies - characterized large agricultural sectors and small industrial sectors

1. Mature Societies- small agricultural sectors, large industrial and service sectors, rising urbanization, higher educational attainment, and increasing societal "complexity

2. Immature Societies (traditional) - large agricultural sectors and small industrial and service sectors

a. Democracy sustainable

Classic Modernization Theory- countries are both more likely to become democratic and stay democratic as they develop economically.

CMT Predicts that economic Development will help both

1. Emergence of democracy

2. Survival of democracy

Criticism - lacks strong causal mechanism linking wealth with democracy

CHAPTER SEVEN

Cultural Arguments

1. Primordial's

2. Constructivist

Primordial

- arguments treat culture as something that is objective and inherited; something fixed since "primordial" times

- blood lines, language, race, religion and customs

- culture exists prior to and remains unchanged by political interaction

- democracy is not for everyone

Constructivist

- Treat culture as something that is constructed or invented rather than inherited

- Culture has causal effect and that a democratic culture is required for democracy to emerge and prosper

Aeschylus

1. The Persians

Montesquieu

-First person to write in any great detail about the importance of culture to political institutions in the 18^th century

- Monarchy = European States

- Deopism = Orient

- Demcracy = Ancient World

-"leads men by following their propensities and inclinations"

-"best agrees with the humor and disposition of the people in whose favor it is established"

Mill

1. Culture is not necessary for democracy

Culture Modernization Theory

Gabriel Almond Sidney Verba

The civic culture

1. Parochial

2. Subject

3. Participant

-political culture determined how individuals think and feel about the political system

Participant "Civic"

1. Reflects a particular cluster of attributes that include

- The belief on the part of individuals that they can influence political decisions

- Positive feelings towards the political system

- High levels of interpersonal trust

- Preferences for gradual societal change

Parachial and Subject

1. Political cultures reflect different clusters of attitudes on these same issues

2. UK & US were the only most stable democracies

Inglehart

Response from 25 industrialized nations

Almond and Verba

1. Belief that individuals can influence political decisions

2. High support for the existing political system

3. High levels of interpersonal trust

4. Preference for gradual societal change

Inglehart

1. High levels of life satisfaction

2. High levels of interpersonal trust

3. Preference for gradual societal change

4. High support for the current social order

5. High levels of post materialist values

6. High levels of political discussion

7. High percentage of population comprised by protestants

Catholic Hypo - Countries with a majority catholic population are less likely to become and stay democratic

Protestant Hypo- Countries with a majority protestant population are more likely to become and stay democratic

Islam Hypo- Countries with a majority muslim population are less likely to become and stay democratic

Democratic Culture - something necessary for democracy to survive and emerges

Ethnic Group- Countries with a large number of ethnic groups are less likely to become and stay democratic

Religious Group - Countries with a large number of religious groups are less likely to become and stay democratic

Cultural Group - Countries with a large number of cultural groups are less likely to become and stay democracies

Observational data- tell us if two variables are correlated, but not if they are casually related

CHAPTER EIGHT

Democratic Transition Process's

Bottom- Up Process

People ruse up to overthrow and authoritarian regime in a popular revolution

- Germany: where popular mobilization led to the overthrow of an authoritarian regime

- Czechoslovakia: Velvet revolution - lack of violence

- Removal of Nicolea from Power of Romania

- Phillipines: EDSA = People Power Revolution - which saw massive demonstrations of up to three million people remove Ferdinane Marcos

Top-Down Process

Dictatorial ruling elite introduce liberalizing reforms that ultimately lead to a democratic transition

Third-Wave of Democratization

Mid-1970s ushered era of democratization that Samuel Huntington has called the "Third wave"

BOTTOM UP TRANSITION ERA

§ East Germany 1989 - protest in the streets of Leipzig and Berlin forced communist of E. Germany government to open up the Berlin wall and allow free multi-party system

o Gorbachev - ardent communist - believed in socialism

o Hungarians People Republic to the republic of Hungary

o Iron Curtain - Hungary opened its border with Austria

Perestroika

"economic restructuring" was a reform policy aimed at liberizing and regenerating the soviet economy

Glasnost

"openness" was a reform policy aimed at increasing political openness

COLLECTIVE ACTION THEORY

Collective Action Theory

Focuses on forms of mass action of "collective action" such as the protests in east Germany in 1989

- Examples revolutions, interest group activities, strikes, elections, public television, fundraising

Public Good

Non-excludable and non-rivalrous

- Clean air - you cannot stop people from breathing it

- Lighthouse - cannot stop the ships in the see from seeing it

- Public parks, fire stations, public radio, national defense

- Democracy

Non-excludability

Cannot exclude people from enjoying the public good

Non-rivalrous

There is just as much public good for people to enjoy no matter how many people consume it

Collective Action or Free Rider Problem

Refers to the fact that individual members of a group often have little incentive to contribute to the provision of a public good that will benefit all members of the group

- If a pro-democracy rally succeeds, you can "free ride" on participation of others

- Collective action provides a possible explanation for the apparent stability of communism in post-war East Germany and for why public demonstration of regime opposition

Preference Falsification

Means not reveling ones true preference in public

Revolutionary Threshold

Is the size of protest at which an individual is willing to participate

Revolutionary Cascade

Domino Effect

Works cited
Campbell McConnell and Stanley Brue. Ecomonics.
New York.October 24, 2006