Economics is the Key to the Election in Pennsylvania

The election is proceeding in accordance with my predictions in my column at Associated Content. Economics is the key to the election, the economy is sour, the Democrats are in office and the voters are blaming them. This is especially true in the two statewide races, one for the US Senate and the other for the Governorship.

In the Senate race Republican Pat Toomey opened up a lead with a lot of voters undecided. We predicted that the Democrats would campaign hard in Philadelphia in an effort to mobilize their base and run up the score in Philadelphia to make up the deficit across the state. That is exactly what they did as the Democrats sent their heavy hitters, their finest statesmen and well known superstars to campaign in Philadelphia and the surrounding areas to mobilize the base and run up the score in Philadelphia. Former president Clinton campaigned in the suburbs of Philadelphia, while Vice-President Biden, and President Obama himself went to Philadelphia to campaign for Joe Sestak. So far, this strategy has not has changed the direction of the election, and the Democrats are still trailing.

We also predicted that with the sour economy the undecideds and independents would not break for the Democrats and the Republicans would maintain their lead. That too is happening.

Recent Polling

Recently, the Philadelphia newspapers have done a good job reporting on the latest poll results, and confirming our predictions. In the Senate race, Republican Pat Toomey is increasing his lead and practically has majority support. He leads the Democrat, Joe Sestak, 50 percent to 43 percent. This is the result of a Quinnipac University Poll of likely voters which was released on September 22, 2010.

The bad economy has reduced President Obama's standing with voters in Pennsylvania. An astonishing 56 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania disapprove of the president's job performance, while only 40 percent approve. This is one of the major reasons why campaigning in Philadelphia has not changed the tide for the Democrats.

The sour economy has also reduced the prestige of Pennsylvania's two Democratic Senators. Pennsylvania voters would rather have a Republican representing them in the US Senate. The lead on this issue is 52 percent to 43 percent.

Undecided and Independent voters

As we predicted, independent and undecided voters are not breaking for the Democrats. Republican Pat Toomey has a substantial lead among independents who are likely to vote. The lead is an incredible 54 percent to 36 percent.

The Gubernatorial Race

In the race for governor, the same trends are readily apparent. Republican Tom Corbett has a substantial lead over Democrat Dan Onorato. Corbett holds a 15 point lead among likely voters. This too, is a result of a Quinnipac University Poll.

The poll showed Corbett leading Onorato by a commanding 54 to 39 percent, with only 7 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

Source: 1. Thomas Fitzgerald, Poll: Toomey leads Sestak in Senate race, September 22, 2010, www.philly.com.
2. Charles Brennan, Poll shows Corbett with 15 point lead over Onorato, September 22, 2010, www.philly.com.