Edwards, Biden Poised to Take Lead in Race for Democratic Nomination

Hillary Rodham Clinton, former first lady to one of the most popular American presidents to ever hold the office, and current junior senator from New York, is the cash leader as well as the front runner for the Democratic nomination in all national polls. But does that mean she can win her party's nomination? No.

A Clinton nomination is the dream of the Republican-right, and for several reasons.

With the unpopularity of the Bush administration and Bush policies, most of America is ready for a change. As a result, among the biggest problem that Republicans will have in 2008 is getting conservatives to the polls. With an attitude that a democratic victory is a foregone conclusion compounded by the fact that GOP frontrunners like Mitt Romney and Rudolph Giuliani are anything but inspiring to the Republican base, conservatives may very well stay at home come election night.

A Hillary Clinton candidacy in the General Election changes all of that. As the single most polarizing figure in politics, the mere mention of her name will send her opposition to the polls in droves, not to vote for their man, but to vote against her. With this notion in mind, it is self-evident why Hillary's name is mentioned two-dozen or more times in GOP debates and countless times in Republican stump speeches.

As badly as many Republicans want to see Clinton get the win, many Democrats are looking for someone who is anyone but her.

Democratic leaders recognize Hillary's polarization factor as a negative for their party as well.

Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives in 2006, but in many districts the margin of victory was slim, such as in the Arizona 5^th, where Harry Mitchell defeated the popular Republican JD Hayworth by a margin of only 5%, the Connecticut 2^nd where Democrat Joe Courtney defeated incumbent Republican Rob Simmons by only 0.04%, just 92 votes. All 435 seats in the House are up for reelection in 2008.

In silent opposition to Hillary's candidacy, Democratic leaders fear that her name on a ballot would be enough to cause with winds of fortune to blow just slightly enough in the other direction, and result with a loss of Democratic seats in Congress.

"She'll certainly get Republican riled up. They will not only go out and vote against her, they'll stop off at their neighbors' houses along the way and drag them to the polls," an anonymous House Democrat told TIME Magazine.

Certainly Democrats have a lot to fear from a Hillary Clinton nomination and Republicans have everything to gain.

If not Hillary, then Barack Obama, right?

Some logic might suggest that the Illinois Senator Barack Obama is second in line to win if Democratic voters decide against Clinton. He is second in most state and national polls, and he has consistently placed second in fundraising ability. However, that doesn't make him a shoe-in either.

The reason for Obama's high polling numbers isn't because of his youth, looks, or the appeal of his message, but because he is the candidate, out of both parties, to receive the least amount of negative news coverage. In fact, coverage of Obama in the media is overwhelmingly positive according to a recent study by the Project of Excellence in Journalism.

Out of all of the media's coverage of Barack Obama, 46.7% is overwhelmingly positive, while only 15.8% is negative. These numbers are stunning considering that Hillary Clinton's coverage is 26.9% positive vs. 37.8% negative and GOP frontrunner Rudolph Giuliani's coverage is 27.8% positive vs. 37% negative.

When examining Obama's positives, they are more stunning when each media market is examined individually. With newspapers, 70% of stories about Obama are positive and with network evening news the number is 55%. The only place in the media were Obama receives a greater amount of negative coverage than positive is in conservative talk radio.

Fears of racist allegations may be driving the media to hold off on criticisms that may be more forthcoming with other candidates. When presidential candidate and Democratic Senator from Delaware Joe Biden paid Obama a compliment saying that he was "clean-cut" and "articulate," he was attacked for making supposedly racist remarks. It is understandable why the media might be more than a little bit shy about running negative Obama stories.

As a result, Barack Obama's highly unscrutinized position in the media has led to overinflated numbers in public polls. Consequently, it is far from inevitable (even unlikely) that his poll numbers will translate into votes when the caucuses and primaries kick off in January.

If not Hillary or Obama, then who?

Democrats have yet to truly consider the person who they'll nominate. In poll conducted in Iowa on January 8^th 2004 by KCCI, Howard Dean was polling at 29% to John Kerry's 18%. Only a few weeks earlier Kerry's poll numbers had been in the single-digits. Just eleven days later on January 19^th John Kerry would win the Iowa caucuses and gained the momentum needed to win the nomination.

Hillary Clinton is only in the lead in Iowa by a net of 3.6% according analysis by RealClearPolitics. In a state like Iowa where anything can happen, anything will.

Traditionally, Iowans look for and vote for electability. There is a choice between kinds of candidates; those who will take strong leadership on social issues, and those who will lead the way out of Iraq.

John Edwards, the former Senator from North Carolina and former VP candidate, is one potential contender who can out on top. Unlike Clinton, Edwards' message is clear, consistent and concise. He is a populist who has real solutions for social issues such as healthcare, social security, and poverty, and unlike Clinton, none of his plans are secret.

Edwards is likeable among women, (thanks to no small contribution from his wife), liberals, and independents, and has experience in running a national campaign; enough to inspire confidence behind a vote.

Joe Biden, on the other hand, is not as "cutting edge" in the realm of reforming healthcare, but he is the only candidate in either party with a plan that can end the war in Iraq by dividing the country into three autonomous regions; one Sunni, one Shia, and one Kurdish, and giving all three self-determined rule, and establishing a federal government for national defense and the distribution of oil revenues. His plan has the backing of 75 US Senators and elements of the Iraqi government.

As Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden has more experience in international relations than any other candidate. In regards to the current situation in Pakistan, both President Pervez Musharraf and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto called Joe Biden before calling President Bush to discuss the crisis.

Given the uncertain times that we live in where an international calamity can cost the lives of any number of American citizens, at home and elsewhere in the world, voters in Iowa and other early primary states just might get behind Biden as the best - and most electable - man for the job.

Still don't believe me? Still think that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are too far ahead in the polls for anyone to come from behind? Just ask President Howard Dean.